This is part of an ongoing 8-part series predicting the 2015 NFL season.

Making these predictions are a headache. It’s almost futile to say who is “good” and who is “bad” at this point in the season, but I will give it a reasonable shot.

AFC North Prediction

1. Steelers*
2. Bengals*
3. Browns
4. Ravens

I nearly nailed this prediction last year, and said it would come down to Cincinnati and Pittsburgh for the division crown. The AFC North is always hotly contested and the two aforementioned teams, along with the Baltimore Ravens, have won the division the last three years.

I feel this is about to change.

I bet on Cincinnati winning the division last year, and they are the team who will most compete with Pittsburgh. While the talent is there, there’s something that doesn’t sit well with me going against my own team again this year.

The Bengals still won games without A.J. Green, based on the emergence of Jeremy Hill, who, if not hand-cuffed to fellow RB Giovani Bernard, might have a Le’Veon Bell type of breakout 2nd year. The Bengals will need it, as their defense recovers from injuries. If it weren’t for shaky QB Andy Dalton, I might say the Bengals would reclaim the thrown they vacated in the final game of the season against the Steelers. However, I cannot get past Dalton’s inconsistency and feel he will eventual cost this team more games than he wins. I expect the Steelers to sweep them again this year.

The Steelers, on the other hand, have plenty of talent that is sitting on the bench (Bell and Martavis Bryant, who are both serving suspensions) along with Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey (who was placed on short-term IR.) As long as DeAngelo Williams can stay healthy for 2 games in Bell’s absence, I don’t see how teams will be able to matchup with the Steelers on offense, Bryant or not.

Defensively Pittsburgh will have growing pains. Let’s face it: they are always bad when the season starts. I see a young group with a ton of potential, who could kick the door down to another Super Bowl appearance. It might not be this year, but should first-rounders Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier stay healthy and actually contribute, this group will grow. They remind me of the offense 2+ years ago.

No one is talking about the secondary either. Shamarko Thomas is still raw and will have to earn his spot. Will Allen is more than complimentary to allow Mike Mitchell to be the player he should’ve been last year. However, if the safety place is at least average the cornerbacks are incredibly deep on this roster. Moving away from part of Dick Lebeau’s scheme will help the corners, and with 2 legitmate slot corners who can both play outside (Antwon Blake and Brandon Boykin) the team finds themselves with a bevy of depth. The outside linebackers are also “deep” in a sense that everyone appears to be on a level playing field. It will only take one of them to step up their game to see all boats rise with the tide on defense.

Speaking of defense, that’s where I feel the Ravens are incredibly suspect. In a league where they have to matchup against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, this team has made zero strides in improving their safeties and corners. Losing Matt Elam (who was probably going to lose his job anyway) doesn’t help them. I’m still not sold on C.J. Mosley: a lot of legacy love going to this second-year guy based on Ray Lewis having played ILB there. He appears to be a good run coverage guy only.

The bookends up front with Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs are still one of the best in football and will help the Ravens, but that only goes so far. Losing Haloti Ngata was and is a major issue.

But the real problem I have with Baltimore, as evidenced by a recent article on the Ravens’ reliance on pass interference calls, is their overall lack of offensive firepower. Last season, I claimed they had ALL of the same issues that the Steelers had: offensive line, secondary, receivers, etc. I don’t feel Baltimore has done anything to help Joe Flacco and his jumpball style of playing football. They drafted WR Breshad Perriman in the first round, and he has not been able to workout with the team. That is not going to help.

Their only other “real” option at WR is 36-year-old Steve Smith Sr., who had a career year last season, but has never been reliable in regard to playing 16 games. Combined with Perriman, it’s an incredibly shaky proposition at this position, when you consider WR Jacoby Jones, who was also a saving grace as a kick returner, left town as well. The only free agent the team retained from last season was Justin Forsett, who’s clock chimes 30 in October: the death knell for most NFL running backs.

The Ravens also turn the offense over to their 4th coordinator in as many years: former Bears head coach Marc Trestmann, who nearly ran the wheels off of Matt Forte. Forsett could put up career numbers, or fall of a cliff: it’s hard to say. Trestmann is supposedly keeping much of former OC Gary Kubiak‘s offense intact, but I just don’t trust it. Trestmann does not have players like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, or Martellus Bennett to put up similar numbers as his offenses did in Chicago. Forsett is not Forte, but Trestmann could turn Flacco into the next Jay Cutler.

For all of those reasons (and yes, I am trying to be unbiased) that’s why I feel the Ravens will not even compete in the AFC North this season. The division plays a difficult schedule as it is, and I feel the Ravens could follow head coach John Harbaugh’s brother Jim, in that his San Francisco 49ers tanked in 2014.

I’m so sure of this, it’s why I’m picking the Cleveland Browns to leapfrog the Ravens. Make no mistake about it, the Browns are a very, very strong team defensively. They also added Pro Bowl punter Andy Lee from the Niners to help improve their special teams. The Browns are still a dumpster fire on offense, but they won 7 games last season. Head coach Mike Pettine is righting the ship, but he’s still working with the previous (and previous) administration’s players, mostly. I don’t see the Browns winning 7 games again, but I could see a situation where they win as many or 1 more than Baltimore.

Now it sounds like I’m writing off Baltimore completely and people have done that for years with them, and even New England, citing Ozzie Newsome or Bill Belichick’s ability to rebound. That might be true, but you can only go to the well so often. Dumervil and Suggs are 31 and 32 years old respectively. (Remember all those knocks on the Steelers D being old?) Flacco is still a better QB than even Andy Dalton, and anyone Cleveland has, but he does not have the ability to make those around him better. The key difference between Flacco and Dalton is how each handles pressure: Flacco makes less mistakes. However, I feel Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep them in close games, just like last year. And that should be good enough for Cleveland fans to finally feel the satisfaction of climbing out of the basement, especially over the city that stole their franchise.