Very conveniently (or perhaps even purposefully) the NFL schedule of 16 games breaks down nicely into 4 quarters, each containing a 4 game schedule. Now that the preseason is in our rear view mirror (almost anyway) and we have a moderately clear picture about who will be on the roster opening day, who will start, and if anyone has been paying attention to the other teams on our schedule, we might have a better idea of who we face.

So, let’s take the 2016 schedule quarter by quarter and look at how things stack up.

1st Quarter – @Redskins, Bengals, @Eagles, Chiefs

During the first quarter of the season we have two road games, and two home games. We will also be missing Le’veon Bell for the Redskins, Bengals and Eagles games, but he’ll be back for the Chiefs. At this point I think it’s safe to assume that Bud Dupree will miss at least the Redskins game, unless he starts practicing sometime soon, and possibly the Bengals game. Beyond that, I think we are fairly intact. Maybe Cam Heyward plays in Washington, and maybe Gilbert plays in Washington, and maybe they don’t. That’s yet to be determined, but not having to play in the last preseason game will give them a little more time to rest and heal. For my take here, I’m going to assume they are both out for the first game, and back for the Bengals game. Let’s take a look at each of these games as we go, and rather than a score prediction, I’m just going to pick Win or Lose.

Steelers @ Redskins – Monday Night Football, September 12th, 7:10 PM

Mike Tomlin has a .818 win percentage on MNF (9-2). It’s not quite as gaudy on the road however, being only .667 (4-2). Ben usually plays really well on Monday night, and while it’s not the flagship game for the NFL anymore (Sunday Night Football having taken that crown) there is still something about a MNF game that sets it apart. It’s a national stage, and for this group of Steelers it’s a chance to make a statement about the upcoming season. I think the will. While we won’t have Le’Veon, we will have DeAngelo, and that’s a potent number 2, as we all saw last year. Washington ranked 26th against the run last year, and while they may get better, that still bodes well for us. If we can run the ball with any consistency, the passing attack should shred the Redskins (25th in the league last year). I think the real question isn’t if we’ll score, it’s if we’ll score enough. The concern for this game is the defense.

The Redskins haven’t shown much of a running game in the preseason, and I’m not sure that plays to our strength. We still have to defend against the run, but Washington may have to rely on the pass to move the ball. Yes, they will try and run, but it could be quickly abandoned in favor of passing, and that exposes us, especially with both Dupree and Heyward out. We haven’t shown much of a pass rush from the edge all preseason, so if we can’t push the pocket internally, we could be setting our secondary up.  Washington had the potential to be prolific, and DeSean Jackson is no joke. So this game could end up a shootout.

That’s ok with me, because I like our chances in a shootout. I’ll take our offense over any other offense in the league.  The defense will get some stops, and that may be all that required. Steelers leave D.C. 1-0 with the win.

Bengals @ Steelers – Sunday, September 18th, 1:00 PM

There are pluses for us in this game. We should get Cam and Gilbert back, and Gilbert is going to be key because of Cincinnati’s pass rush. But Cincy will be without Vontaze Burfict and Tyler Eifert and both of those guys have been problems for us. We will need to get pressure on Dalton, and we can’t be lax and let him run the ball, since he’s shown he’s not afraid to do that in the past. If we can’t get pressure, I worry about Green and Jones running free in the secondary, and if that happens, things could get out of hand, and not in our favor.

What works against us here is that we have this odd habit of beating the Bengals in Cincy, and losing at home. Not consistently, but we do seem to struggle with them at Heinz field at times. These games tend to be tighter, and so I don’t expect a shootout, nor do I think it’s going to be one-sided. I expect a tight game, but I think that the missing pieces on the Cincy side are greater than the missing pieces on our side. I think Sammie Coates could be impactful in this game. Bucking the trend of losing at home and winning in Cincy, I think the Steelers head for Philly 2 – 0.

Steelers @ Eagles – Sunday, September 25th, 4:25 PM

We don’t seem to play well in Philadelphia. Some really ugly games have occurred from the Steelers standpoint in Philly. Several years back we watched Ben get sacked I think a million times. No really, I think it was a million times. I bet it felt like a million times. I can’t remember the last time we won a game in Philly. I had to do something I really never like to do, I had to look it up. The last game that the Steelers won in Philadelphia was in 1965. Since then we are 0-8 in Philly. The last time we visited the “Linc” was in 2008, and we lost 15-6 in the million sack game.  IN 1997 we lost 23-20. So the simple fact is we haven’t won in Philly in a long time.

Ok, more facts – Philly isn’t that good. They can be really good, but they aren’t consistently good. Their main receivers are Nelson Agholor and Jordan Matthews, and their running attack is Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. None of that frightens me. They have issues at the corners. They have issues on the offensive line and while their D-line is pretty solid, there are some questions at linebacker.  After what seems to always be an emotionally charge game against the Bengals, there is the risk of having a letdown game here in Philly. Regardless of history or of a potential letdown, unless a Philly fan manages to peg Ben or AB in the head with a battery or something, I have to say we head back to Pittsburgh 3 – 0. Win.

Chiefs & Steelers – Sunday Night Football, October 2nd, 8:30 PM

Let’s start out by stating that the Chiefs will be without Justin Houston in this game. However, this is a good Chiefs team regardless. They have really good linebackers, really good corners, a solid D-line, a great safety – it’s a good unit. On defense.  On offense, well, they can be good, it’s not like they don’t have weapons. Jeremy Maclin and Jamaal Charles are really good playmakers. Alex Smith is Alex Smith, by which I mean he’s steady, doesn’t make a ton of mistakes but also isn’t flashy and doesn’t go deep that often. The Steelers are 9-4 against the Chiefs in Pittsburgh and 19-9 against them overall. The O-line did a solid job against them last year. Landry took 2 sacks, and maybe if that was Ben back there he wouldn’t have taken any, but then again, who knows.

On our side of the ball, it’s time to let the “Juice” loose! Le’veon returns for this game and I expect him to have a really good one. If we can get the Chiefs focused on Bell and the running game, I don’t think their linebackers, as good as they are, can cover him out of the backfield, or when he splits out, and we should be able to take advantage with mismatches against either Bell, Rogers at slot, or Jesse James over the middle. But the truth is none of that really matters.

This game is a guaranteed win. Why you ask? Because my daughter (accompanied by my wife and myself) will be at the game. Yes, we are making the long drive from New Jersey to Pittsburgh for the weekend. My daughter and I usually get to one game a year, and she has a perfect record; she has never seen the Steelers lose a game in Heinz field. So it’s in the bank. Steelers win and start the season a perfect 4 and 0.

Conclusion

So that’s about the most you could expect out of a first quarter. If I had to pick a game out of these four that we might lose, it would probably be Philadelphia. History just seems to state that we don’t play well in Philly. I can’t think of a single real reason we should lose that game, but it’s the one that makes me nervous. Of course, all this is barring injury or some other bizarre situation where people get suspended. If we lose starters, it definitely changes things. There are some people I think we can lose for a game or two. There are some we cannot. So the perfect situation would be we end these first four games 4-0 and relatively free from injury. If that happens, we’ll be set for the second quarter of the season.

In my next blog I’ll look at the second quarter of the season, but I might wait a week to see how things go against Washington, and to get the bad taste of that stinker of a preseason game (Carolina) out of my mouth. I can just hear the calls for us to trade for Joe Webb. I know they are going to start soon (and probably already have).

Until next time Nation!

This article was originally published on Black n Gold Til I’m Dead and Cold.