Preview: Can the Steelers break another streak – The Thanksgiving Curse
Nation – I hate short weeks. It’s just that simple.
They are tough. Tough on players, tough on coaches, and to a certain extent, tough on fans.
The Steelers played a tough, nasty game on Sunday, and they have to immediately look ahead to another game: again on the road, in a hostile environment, against the Indianapolis Colts.
That’s only 3 days to prepare, really only 2 to practice, and damn little downtime for these guys to recover from Sunday.
At least the Colts are coming off the same kind of schedule, and not a bye week. From that standpoint they are in the same boat.
(Okay, there boat is clearly much leakier than ours with the news that both Andrew Luck and starting free safety Clayton Geathers are both in the concussion protocol.)
The game is Thanksgiving night, 8:30 P.M.
So what you might ask?
Well, the Steelers do have some history on Thanksgiving day games, and unfortunately it’s not good.
On the plus side, in the last two outings against the Colts, we’ve outscored them 96-44 with Ben throwing for 10 TD’s and 886 yards.
Sheesh.
We have owned this series, with an overall record in our favor of 22-6. So there is plenty of history here that points to the Steelers having success.
With that being said, let’s get to it and look at this week’s matchup.
The Thanksgiving Day Curse
This game will mark the 8th time the Steelers have played on Thanksgiving day. All of the games have been road games, so take that into account.
On Thanksgiving day we are 1-6 currently. We won in 1950, and haven’t won a Thanksgiving day game since then. So that’s a pretty long stretch without much success.
Thanksgiving tends to be weird for us as well. Last time we played on Thanksgiving, we played the Ravens… and lost 22-20.
The game was back and forth, but all that anyone is going to remember is Mike Tomlin’s close encounter with the Jacoby Jones on the sideline.
But you know what, that’s not the most bizarre thing to happen on Thanksgiving. The Steelers and the Lions are headed into overtime, and Jerome Bettis calls tails on the coin flip.
(YES HE DID!).
The official says “He calls heads.”
(NO HE DIDN’T!).
It was heads, and the Lions won the damn game.
While this claims to be debunked, I don’t buy it (and besides, as you may have read recently, I’m on a ref-bashing run right now, so this just fuels that).
Let me say that when the schedule came out, and I saw that we were playing Thanksgiving day, I was the least happy person I know. I don’t know if it is because we always seem to be on the road for these games, or if the guys are really feeling Turkey and trimmings deprived, or if there is some weird anti-Steeler entity related to Thanksgiving that keeps cursing us.
I do not know.
I just know that history is not in our favor on this one.
I’m ready to eat light so I don’t have to feel overly ill later in the evening.
Ben vs. Colts D
In 2015 the Colts had 24th ranked passing defense. They had the 25th ranked rushing defense. In 2014 they were 12th and 18th respectively.
That’s kind of the arrow pointing downwards.
You would assume that they would have tried to make some improvements this year?
So far for 2016 the Colts are 30th in pass defense giving up 285 yards per game, and allowing a completion percentage of 66%. Their rushing defense is ranked 25th, allowing 113.1 yards per game (an average of 4.5 yards per carry).
Not terribly imposing is it.
Ben should, and I say should, have no problem eviscerating the Colts defense.
I say should – because there is an issue that remains, and has not yet been clarified: the issue of “who else is he going to throw to other than AB?”
Eli Rogers? Sammie Coates? Cobi Hamilton? Ladarius Green? Jesse James?
All are possible, but Sammie isn’t getting any snaps because his fingers are broken, which is understandable.
Eli has shown flashes, as has Cobi – but there was a telling statement made by Rich Gannon (and yes, I am surprised to say that). Ben was extremely hesitant, and pulled the ball down several times. Gannon stated that one reason that happens is that young receivers are not always were they are supposed to be.
Let’s look at 4 out of those 5 names I listed – Rogers, Coates, Hamilton and James – 2 years or less.
And Ladarius is still getting acclimated to the system.
So who is number 2? (Le’Veon I would guess.)
Let’s be real – Bell and Brown combined for 16 catches for 133 yards against the Browns. Cobi, Eli, and Jesse combined for 7 receptions for 36 yards.
We still need one of these young guys to step up. There needs to be a reason not to double and triple AB (I know I sound like a broken record, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true!)
I expect AB to get the bulk of the receptions, then Bell to be the second leading receiver yet again this week. Hopefully Ladarius gets more involved, and maybe Eli has a breakout game.
I don’t expect much from Cobi, even though I like the grit he shows.
If we can get someone else to step up, this will be a high scoring affair, and Ben should have another game much like the last two.
I think he goes for 400+ and 4 TD’s, but I won’t be surprised if he nets his third 500-yard game.
Andrew Luck vs. Steelers D – no wait it’s Scott Tolzien vs. Steelers D
I had this whole bit written about Andrew Luck, and why it was going to be a shootout.
See what happens in a short week when you try and get prepared!
Just that quick, Luck is in the concussion protocol, and it looks like he won’t play Thursday night.
That means it’s Scott Tolzien.
Who?
Scott Tolzien. (Yes, I had to look him up too.)
The guy has 6 game appearances in 4 years, 3 in 2013 and 3 in 2015. He started 2 (in 2013). Here are his, ahem, career stats:
56/90 for 717 yards. 1 TD and 5 INTs.
Career QB rating of 67.1.
And he’ll have a whopping two days of practice with the first team to get acclimated.
Can you say Ryan Mallett?
Well, don’t. Shut up with that stuff.
The Colts O-line somehow is ranked 15th by Pro Football Focus, but I’m thinking that their formula may have had a brain fart. They’ve given up 35 sacks this season with Luck as the QB. Frank Gore is averaging just under 4 yards per carry (3.94 to be exact) and has 4 TD’s and 642 yards on the season, but that’s not overly concerning either.
Le’Veon has 579 yards with 3 less games.
I don’t expect the Colts to be able to run the ball at all. If they do, that would go a long well to helping Tolzien out. Still, we should be able to stop them, and if we can get the offense in gear and get ahead, that means it’s going to be on Tolzien’s shoulders to win, and that should end up being a very favorable position for us.
When we look back at last Sunday, let me just give Keith Butler a little credit. They did some schematic things with Timmons and Harrison and Tuitt that were different last week, and I think it gave the Browns fits. It’s on tape now, but the Colts only have so long to prepare for it, so maybe a little creativity can keep paying off.
Here is what I do know. If we give any QB too much time to throw, he’ll find open receivers. The Colts do have some good recievers in Donte Moncrief and T.Y. Hilton. Artie Burns has been better every week, and this will be a challenge to keep up with these speed guys, but the good news is it looks like it won’t be Luck throwing to Hilton and Moncrief, but rather, Tolzien.
I think Artie might get his 3rd INT on Thursday, and break Chad Scott’s rookie record for interceptions in a season.
Lets be honest, the Colts were only a little scary with Luck as the QB.
With Tolzien as the QB, well, maybe it’s like playing the Browns for a second week in a row?
Le’Veon Bell
As I mentioned, the Colts rush defense isn’t anything to write home about. Bell should be able to build on last week’s effort and maybe come up with another 200+ yards from scrimmage between catches and rushes.
Look for the Steelers to try and feed Bell early, and set the Colts up for the passing attack. Get them creeping up, and AB will find ways to make them pay.
I also expect them to move him out as they have been, and split him wide, and I will applaud every time they dump the ball to him and we pick up 11 easy yards.
The Red Zone
The Steelers received an additional, although dubious, honor on Sunday. They are the only team to score a single offensive touchdown against the Browns.
Seriously, that’s not good.
I mean, I’m thrilled we won, and we played well on both sides, but we had issues situationally.
For the offense, that was in the red zone. We were 1-4 (1 TD in 4 attempts).
That’s just not gonna cut it. We’ve been better, and I also echo the thoughts of many other members of the Nation – How can we be so bad in the red zone when it’s a focus of practice all the time? We should be awesome in the red zone – and to be fair, other than yesterday, we’ve been pretty good.
It kinda boils down to this. Our red zone efficiency at home is 72.22%, and on the road its 45.45%.
That’s going to be an important stat to watch Thursday night. When we get a chance to score, do we have to settle for 3, or are we converting for 7. Even more important to understand is that Indianapolis is actually second in the league in red zone efficiency (the Steelers are 10th).
The Colts are 85.71% at home.
On the upside of this conversation, guess who is number one in limiting opponents in the red zone?
That’s right, it’s your Pittsburgh Steelers – allowing opponents only 36.84% efficiency on the road – strangely the D has been better on the road at this than at home (50%).
The Colts are 11th, allowing 50% to opponents at home.
Frankly, I think the story of Thursday night’s game will come down to this – who is better when it counts? Who is better in the red zone?
Conclusion
Alright Nation, time for this team to stack some wins. This is a dangerous game.
Indianapolis also won on Sunday, beating the Titans rather easily. Yes, we’ve kind of owned them the last two years, but both those games were at Heinz. The last time we played in Indianapolis, in 2011, we did win, a squeaker 23-20.
The game is certainly winnable, but the offense has to fix its road problems, and the defense probably needs to come up with a performance on par with the one they put up on Sunday.
You know me – I’m a glass half-full guy – so despite the history, despite the red zone issues, I think we come home from Indy 6-5, and we have a nice long mini-bye to get ready for the Giants.
Hey, maybe (although it’s unlikely) the Bengals overcome their injury woes and beat the Ravens next Sunday, and we end the weekend in sole position of first place in the North!
Okay, that’s more of a glass is full kind of outlook, and I don’t want to push it.
Until next time Nation!
