It just feels different this week Nation, and it should.

The energy is a little higher, the anticipation is a little greater – everything is amped up. To steal a “This is Spinal Tap” reference, if the regular season game energy “goes to 10”, the post-season game energy is better – because it “goes to 11”.

This Sunday the second season starts. The “win and move on, lose and go home” part of the year. And to start things off, the Steelers are facing a team that 12 weeks ago dominated them in a rather embarrassing fashion in South Florida. The Miami Dolphins come to Heinz field, and give the Steelers a chance to exact a measure of revenge for their earlier defeat.

So what’s different now? Why should we expect that suddenly this Steelers team will be ever so much better than this Dolphin team?

Before we preview what to look for in this week’s game, let’s take a quick look at where these teams stand at this point in the season.

	Miami Dolphins	Pittsburgh Steelers
Record	10-6	11-5
Streak	L 1 (6-2 over last 8)	W 7 (7-1 over last 8)
Scoring Offense	22.69 (17th)	24.94 (10th)
Rushing Offense	114 (9th)	110 (14th)
Passing Offense	219.38 (26th)	262.31 (5th)
Scoring Defense	23.75 (18th)	20.44 (10th)
Rushing Defense	140.44 (30th)	100 (13th)
Passing Defense	242.38 (15th)	242.62 (16th)
Turnover Ratio	+2 (13th)	+ 5 (9th)

Those are full season rankings, and looking at them, you’d give the Steelers the edge, but not dramatically. But the full season doesn’t always tell the tale. And of course, there are other things to consider, like missing pieces.

The Dolphins will be without starting center Mike Pouncey. We have our Pouncey.

The Dolphins will likely be starting a backup quarterback, Matt Moore, who has managed to throw an INT in each of his last 3 games. We have Ben.

In their last 6 games, the Dolphins defense has given up an average of 27.3 points per game. We’ve given up 18.1.

In their last 8 games, the Dolphins have played two teams with non-losing records (New England and Baltimore) and they got crushed by both of them.  The Steelers have played 4 (Dallas, Indianapolis, NY Giants and Baltimore) and went 3-1, and very nearly beat the Cowboys.

The point is, this is a game we probably should win, but it may not be quite as easy as we’d like.

When is it ever?

Anyway, let’s get to the preview of this Sunday’s Wild Card matchup between the Steelers and the Dolphins.

Le’Veon Bell vs. Jay Ajayi

Really, this isn’t Bell versus Ajayi – but you know that is how it’s going to play. Which one of these backs has a better day isn’t a direct competition, it’s a result of the Miami O-line (and Ajayi) vs the Steelers run defense, and the Steelers O-line (and Bell) vs the Dolphins rush defense.

But everyone will say it’s Bell vs. Ajayi, so I figured why should I be different.

Clearly we can’t allow Ajayi to go off for 200+ yards like he did in Miami. The unfortunate truth is the last 2 weeks the rushing defense hasn’t been very good. We allowed the Ravens, as a group, to rush for 122, and then last week we let the Browns torch us for 231 (152 by Isaiah Crowell).

But that was all without Stephon Tuitt, who should be back for this game. There is another difference between the last time we played them, and this time. That first game in Miami was the first time that the Dolphins O-line had been healthy all year. They aren’t right now. Mike Pouncey is on IR, and without him this is a weaker unit.

But there is more to the story! In Miami, Sean Davis was playing slot corner (if it all). Artie Burns was barely sniffing the field.

And Ryan Shazier was hurt.

Compare that defense: no Davis, no Shazier, no Burns, to the one we have today.

It’s not the same team anymore. They are better, and they have playmakers they didn’t have last time around. It’s not just the D-line that is going to keep Ajayi in check, it’s the entire unit, and they will do a better job of it than they did last time.

Mark my words – he doesn’t get 80 yards.

On the other hand, our O-line has been performing fantastically, and the Dolphins rushing defense has been atrocious over the past few games. Clearly the Dolphins are aware of this as well, and are likely to gear up to take Le’Veon away. It’s possible that we will need to use the pass to open up the run, but ideally, we should be able to pound the Dolphins defense all day long, and with success.

Steelers O-line vs. Miami D-line

And the ability to do that will depend on how our O-line performs.

The Goon Squad needs to impose its will on the Dolphins.

They need to be singularly focused.

They need to not blink. (Okay, I have now filled my pre-requisite number of Tomlinisms for this piece).

But it’s not just the run game where they need to continue to be great. Remember, the Dolphins took Ben out, and may well have won that game in Miami by hurting him. They need to keep Ben clean.

Cameron Wake has 11.5 sacks, Ndamukong Suh has 5, Andre Branch has 5.5. They can get after the quarterback, and we need to keep them away from Ben. Look, I don’t want to call these guys dirty (except Suh, he’s a dirty player, and I think that’s been documented), but they clearly know that if they can take Ben out, it greatly increases their chance of winning.

The O-line needs to protect both Ben and Bell. And they need to do it with extreme prejudice.

Going Green

Mike Tomlin thinks that even though Ladarius Green is still in the concussion protocol, that it looks “encouraging” for him to be back this week.

That would be huge. Really huge.

Green was not available for that first game, and frankly, I don’t think they Dolphins are equipped to deal with him. Is Kiko Alonso going to cover him? I don’t think so. And neither are Jelani Jenkins or Donald Butler.

Ladarius could be a difference maker in this game, and if he is out there, the Dolphins will have to pay attention to him. So, if you throw Le’Veon Bell, AB, Ladarius Green, Sammie Coates and Eli Rogers out in a pattern… who do you cover? Can you afford to double Antonio Brown at that point?

You see how that could be a good thing for the Steelers, right?

It all comes down to the Quarterbacks

That heading says it all. And it’s true.

In the end, I believe that quarterback play will determine who wins this game. Regardless of if Ryan Tannehill is able to start, or if it’s Matt Moore, I take Ben Roethlisberger over either of those guys in a heartbeat. (OK, that’s probably the most obvious statement I’ve ever written).

The question this season remains what it has been, which version of Ben shows up?

Do we get the version of Ben that tosses two INT’s in the second quarter of the critical Ravens game?

The Ben who throws three picks against the Bills?

Or do we get the Ben who leads 2 fourth quarter drives, including the game winning drive, completing almost everything he throws, and slicing up defenses like, ahem, sushi?

Boy I sure hope it’s that second guy!

I think it will be, and there is reason to think it will be. We are at home. That’s been Ben’s happy place most of the season. This is a big game. Ben loves big games. He excels in big games. The guy is clutch.

Ben probably doesn’t need to throw 5 TD’s, and have a perfect rating. He probably doesn’t need to throw for 300+. It wouldn’t hurt, but he can win this game simply by playing smart, error free football.  No turnovers, don’t try and do too much, and take what the defense gives you.

The quarterback who plays the best will win this game. I think that will be Ben Roethlisberger.

Conclusion

This is clearly a winnable game Nation. It’s not just winnable, it’s clear we should win, and that we should dominate. We go into the playoffs healthier than we’ve been almost all season.  Yes, not having Cameron Heyward is still loss, but give it to the guys on defense, they’ve stepped up. Dan McCullers was a beast last week (I didn’t call him out in the GBU article, but I should have! He monstered over that guy for a sack of RG3. If only he played that way on every snap). Javon Hargrave, Artie Burns and Sean Davis have been difference makers, and (fingers crossed) Stephon Tuitt will be back to “Do It, Tuitt”.

The offense should be getting healthy too, and maybe Sammie Coates uses this game to boost his confidence and springboard back into the minds of defensive coordinators in, say Kansas City, or perhaps New England? The offense is primed to be more explosive than at any point so far this season, and it could make for a really fun month as we make a push up that Stairway.

Until next time Nation!