Nation, it’s the Divisional Round. That means we are a mere 2 games away from the Promised land.

Standing in our way, a talented and improved Kansas City Chiefs team.

The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers played the Kansas City Chiefs in a playoff game at Arrowhead (also the only time the Steelers have played the Chiefs in a playoff game at Arrowhead) was January 8th, 1994. The game went into overtime, and the Chiefs won 27-24.

The Steelers were quarterbacked by “he who shall not be named”, while the Chiefs were helmed by one Joe Montana.

So, there is not a lot of playoff history to examine with these two teams.

Overall, the Steelers haven’t fared too well at Arrowhead in the past 16 years. They’ve played there 5 times since 2001, and of those 5 games, they have lost 3. Most were close games, with only one (9/14/2003 41-20) really being lopsided.

Look, Kansas City is a tough place to play, and what I take from the more recent history of the Steelers playing there, is that the games are usually competitive.

As has been beaten into the ground all week, the Steelers have a “flipped script” scenario. Last week they wanted revenge for a beat down the Dolphins gave them earlier in the season.

We handed the Chiefs a worse defeat earlier in the season as well, and you just know they will be itching to make up for it.

So without further ado, let’s take a look at this week’s Divisional Round matchup.

Andy Reid off of a bye

If you haven’t heard, he’s really good when coming off a bye: he usually wins.

Forget the regular season, and let’s just focus on the postseason for a moment: coming off a bye in the post season, Andy Reid’s teams are 3-0.

His teams have never lost a Divisional Round game when they have had that extra week to prepare.

That just means that in the condensed time the Steelers have had, they are really going to have to get these guys prepared, because you absolutely know the Chiefs will be.

We may have to weather a storm initially. Reid likes to script a series of plays to begin the game, and you can bet those plays will be designed to take advantage of whatever weakness Reid thinks he sees in the Steelers defense.

It will be on Coach Tomlin, Butler and the rest of the defensive coaches to make sure that they are prepared, and maybe have a few twists to throw at the Chiefs.

Ring the Bell

In the last game against the Chiefs, Le’Veon rushed 18 times for 144 yards, for an unholy average of 8 yards per carry. Add in 34 receiving yards, and he had 178 all-purpose yards in that contest.

He will need to do that again.

The best way to shut up the crowd in Arrowhead Stadium would be to take the ball and just run it right down the Chiefs throat. Run it right down the field, and into the end zone.

That would be demoralizing; not just to the Chiefs, but to their fans.

It would take the air out of that stadium.

Kansas City was 26th in the league in rushing defense. They allowed opposing runners to average 4.4 yards per carry.

Now, I am no super-genius, so if I see this, you can bet your butt the Chiefs see it too, and they will be trying to come up with a plan to stop Le’Veon Bell.

If they have success in doing so, we need to change it up, and put Bell out on the edges, with DeAngelo Williams in the backfield, and start making them decide what they are going to defend – the run or the pass?

Derrick Johnson is on IR, and that makes KC weak at the linebacker position. It’s going to be hard for them to stop the run as it is, without bringing their safeties down to help out. If we can hit a couple of balls over the top, and force those safeties to drop back, Bell will have a hey-day, and could even break the record he set last week.

In fact, I think just maybe he will. I say he goes for 180, and 2 scores.

The Quarterbacks

Alex Smith is a game manager. That’s not an insult, it’s just a fact. He’s not exciting, he’s not going to take chances. He’s only thrown 8 interceptions all season, which, you know, if you do the math, is less than 1 a game. Of course, one of those was in the game against the Steelers at Heinz Field. Still, we can’t count on him throwing the ball to us.

But we can probably count on him taking a few sacks. Smith would much rather eat the ball than turn it over, and he’s been sacked 28 times this season. If we can get to Smith consistently, he will make a few mistakes, and I think we can.

So, the point of all that is that I don’t think Alex Smith is going to win, or lose, this game.

Which is exactly what we need from Ben Roethlisberger. In the first game, Ben went 22 of 27 for 300 yards and 5 TDs.

Would we love it if he did that again?

Well, of course we would, but the point is we don’t need him to do that if we can run the ball effectively.

I know it will be tempting for Ben and Todd Haley. KC plays man-to-man coverage. Antonio Brown cannot be covered man-to-man in my opinion, and that has been shown in games where teams attempted to play man-to-man; the Steelers feasted on them.

But despite all that, if Ben makes mistakes, or bad throws, or receivers don’t do what he expects them to do, those errors, against this team, will turn into turnovers. Marcus Peters and Eric Berry are ball-hawks. Daniel Sorensen has shown an affinity to take the ball away as well.

Between just those three guys, the Chiefs have 13 interceptions, 3 of which were returned for TDs.

Mistakes against this group turn into points, and that is something the Steelers can’t afford.

Ben needs to play a smart game, and while I don’t think it’s in him to play completely risk free football (as I discussed in another article this week), he needs to take very calculated risks, and limited ones.

To help him, the O-line needs to keep him upright. I have no idea what Justin Houston has to offer at this point in the season. He’s been injured twice, and while he did have a nice 3 sack game back in November, he’s been a non-factor for KC most of the time.

KC got to Ben twice last time, and it would be great if that number didn’t get any larger this time around.

If Ben has a turnover free day, I think we win this game easily.

That Fast Guy

Tyreek Hill is his name –speed is his game.

Look this guy was pretty much a total non-factor in the week 4 game. There is film of Artie Burns making a great play against him in that game.

The truth is, the Chiefs were not using him as much earlier in the season. They hadn’t found a way to utilize the guy effectively.

That has changed, and he’s become much more active in their passing game, and even doing jet sweeps in their running game.

But that isn’t where he scares me: he scares me in special teams.

Why?

Because our special teams play, especially our coverage play, has been… well… below the line.

If I had my choice, I would simply never kick the ball to this guy.

Ever.

Keeping him under control is important, especially on special teams.

Travis Kelce

We all know he’s an excellent, dynamic and exciting player. The bottom line here is simple. Don’t let this guy beat you.

Sean Davis, Ryan Shazier, Lawrence Timmons and whomever else needs to deal with him, please pay attention.

Don’t let this guy beat you.

Uncle James

Tunch Ilkin was talking about this earlier in the week. Eric Fisher, the left tackle of the Chiefs, is not well suited to dealing with James Harrison.

Or maybe, a better way to say this is that Eric Fisher is the perfect matchup for James Harrison from the Steelers perspective. Fishers technique isn’t suited to handling Deebo. Harrison gets low, and has both speed and power, and the craftiness of a veteran, former Defensive Player of the Year.

Eric Fisher, to quote Pro Football Focus “appears to be making out as an average starter”. He has given up six sacks so far this season, and has had 10 penalties called against him.

Deebo is going to eat his lunch.

The truth is that Uncle James has been playing out of his mind, and I don’t see a reason for that to stop this week. In fact, I think he could dominate on the defensive side of the ball.

Conclusion

The folks who read these previews know I’m a glass-half full guy, and you can tell that I think the Steelers can, and will win this game from reading this piece.

But despite all that, I don’t expect this to be easy. This should be a much closer game than the Week 4 matchup was, and if the Steelers are flat, or sloppy, or just make too many mistakes, they will lose.

I just don’t think any of those things are going to happen.

I expect the Steelers to actually improve overall, make fewer mistakes, and tighten things up as they push toward that seventh Lombardi trophy.

Steelers win this game, 35-24.

Until next time Nation!