Draft Prep: The Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell is unquestionably the best all-around back in the league, and maybe the best back period. He will almost certainly be franchised this upcoming season, and it’s the hope of the Steelers that they will be able to lock him up in a long term deal sometime soon.
Beyond Le’Veon, it’s fair to say that unless DeAngelo Williams decides to return to Pittsburgh, the cupboard is a bit empty. Bell has only managed to play a full season of 16 games once so far, back in 2014. (He was injured in the final game of that season as well, and unavailable for the playoffs.)
Fitzgerald Toussaint, Karlos Williams and a few other practice squad guys coming off of IR (Dreamius Smith, Gus Johnson and Brandon Brown-Dukes) make up the stable of running backs available to the Steelers.
Provided D-Will does sign a contract to try for a Super Bowl ring with the Steelers next year, I don’t think we have a huge problem here.
If he doesn’t… well, then this becomes an area worth paying attention to in the draft.
Overview
Unlike the first two articles I wrote about the draft (Quarterbacks and O-Line) this is a decent draft for running backs. But it’s not really a deep one. There are some real quality players that might be available in the first two rounds, but after that the talent level falls off a bit, and you are (as is often the case) taking your chances.
The Steelers are in a position where it’s likely the only chance they have of landing a solid back, is if they take him with their first pick. By the time we get to pick 62 (30 in the second round) I would bet that we are out of the Cream and into the Crop in the running back category. Still, if the right value pick is there, it’s probably worth the Steelers while to sniff around and see what their options are.
Let’s take a look at the Cream, the Crop and the Dregs for the 2017 Running Back class:
The Cream
As usual, there are a select few guys who project as being top prospects. Two of these guys could be real studs (Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook) and there are three others who I think have legitimate chances to be top-level backs in the NFL (D’Onta Foreman, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara).
So that’s the “cream” of this draft.
Fournette (LSU) and Cook (Florida State) have been talked about a lot, and there is really very little chance either of them is sitting on the boards at 30 when the Steelers draft. Fournette is a bruiser, and needs to be a North/South runner. Frankly, I don’t think he even fits the Steelers right now. With the way the line has developed it’s zone blocking, and the repartee they have with Le’Veon Bell, this is a completely different kind of back.
Can they adapt? Of course they could. Should they take him if he’s there at 30. Maybe. I mean, it’s pretty hard to pass on a top-10 talent at 30, but is it a number one need? No, it’s not, and what does it say to Le’Veon if you take a top 10 back in the draft?
What about Cook?
He’s much more of a “do-everything” kind of back. He’s got speed to burn, and he’s deadly going east/west, and can get to the outside corner and turn it up. He’s much more like Le’Veon than Fournette is, but c’mon now, nobody is really like Le’Veon. He’s another potential top-10 talent, and how do you pass at 30 if he’s still on the board. The truth is this isn’t going to be a problem – too many teams need quality RB’s and even though the position has been devalued a bit recently, I think we are starting to see a resurgence of the running back position (Ezekiel Elliot went 4 last year, and he certainly paid off for the Cowboys). Fournette and Cook will be long gone by the time the Steelers pick.
The problem really starts with the other 3 guys: McCaffrey, Foreman and Kamara. There is a chance that all 3 could still be on the board when the Steelers pick.
McCaffrey has burst. He has vision and he is a great cutter. He is a great pass receiver as well. The worst thing in the world that could happen is if he’s there at 32 and the Patriots take him. (He has New England written all over him.) I hope he’s gone by 30, and in most mocks he is. If he’s still on the boards when the Steelers draft, I think we have to consider him. He’s a unique kid. He can return punts and kickoffs and he would make a great 3rd down addition if we split Le’Veon out wide.
But is he worth a 1st round pick to us? I just don’t know. I would have to think hard, but I think I’d still pass.
Foreman and Kamara are more 2nd round guys, so I wouldn’t consider them with the first pick, but if either of them is sitting around at 62, I’d have to think about it, depending on how the draft has fallen. If DeAngelo doesn’t come back to the fold, then I might pull the trigger at two. Assuming I got what I needed in the first round.
The Crop
The next group of guys are all nice backs and there are some who have them amongst the Cream, but for me, this is the Crop (in no particular order):
- Joe Mixon (Oklahoma)
- Samaje Perine (Oklahoma)
- Wayne Gallman (Clemson)
- Marlon Mack (South Florida)
- James Conner (Pittsburgh)
I was at the Ohio State/Oklahoma game last year (in Norman) but to be honest, didn’t see much of either Mixon or Perine because the Buckeyes got out to a big lead, so the Sooners had to rely more on the pass. I took a look at some YouTube tape on both of them, and unfortunately for Joe Mixon, what comes up when you search for his tape is not the kind of tape you want to find. Mixon is shown in a video doing a Ray Rice, punching a woman in the face in 2014.
He’s not going to be drafted by the Steelers. Not a shot.
Samaje Perine is an interesting guy. He’s smaller, 5’10” and 235. Kind of reminded me a little of Maurice Jones-Drew. A fireplug of a runner. As a backup he could be a solid contributor, but he’s not going to be a number one guy. He could be a value pick in the second round for the right team, just not sure that’s going to be Pittsburgh. I’d probably pass, and reconsider if he’s still there round three (which is not out of the question).
Mack I simply haven’t seen enough of to make an educated decision, but I would venture to say that based on where I’ve seen him ranked, he’s a day 3 guy at best. I know everybody in Pittsburgh knows who James Conner is, and he’s going to get love amongst the Nation just for being that hometown flavor. But I’d pass on him, simply because I don’t see the benefit here.
Out of this group, the guy I like the best is Wayne Gallman. He was overshadowed at Clemson because of Deshaun Watson and Mike Williams, but he has good burst, and he isn’t going to be arm tackled. He gets yards after contact, always keeping his feet driving, and he is deadly in short yardage. He’s a great red-zone guy. On the downside, he doesn’t have great vision and can be a liability as a pass blocker.
Unless something crazy happens (like in my Mock Draft Insanity piece), I don’t think we are going to get our best “bang for the buck” here.
The Dregs
I do feel bad calling this group “The Dregs”, since there are some good guys in here.
Mathew Dayes (North Carolina State), Kareem Hunt (Toledo), D.J. Pumphrey (San Diego State) and Jamaal Williams (Brigham Young) all have some upside. I don’t think any of them are going to be surprise stars, but they can be serviceable backups, and maybe contributors.
If the Steelers find themselves in a position where they need a backup, I am not in love with that guy being Fitz. So maybe one of these guys, or even De’Veon Smith (from, a team I dislike strongly, Michigan) might be worth a late 4 or 5th round pick.
Conclusion
As I was writing this, I realized the draft is a little deeper for running backs then I thought. You should be able to get some value all the way down in the 4th and 5th rounds. Maybe even the 6th. It’s a decent draft class for this position, maybe even very good.
The real question is, is it a higher priority for the Steelers than other positions? I’m going to let something slip here, and tell you that I think that there are at least 4 positions I’d rank above RB as a priority (EDGE, TE, S, CB) and if you pressed me, I might even say that LB and DL are both more important. But that’s assuming that when the draft rolls around we have Le’Veon and DeAngelo.
Right now, that’s still a question mark. The Steelers will know their running back situation by the draft day. If both Le’Veon and DeAngelo are back, then I probably don’t look at running back as a critical need; in which case, picking one up earlier than the 5th round seems like it might be a mistake… depending on value, of course.
Next up: Tight Ends
