Many people advocate the Steelers drafting a mid-round quarterback. Intentions vary: some merely want a back-up while some hope Ben Roethlisberger‘s heir can be found.

Most conversations about quarterbacks drafted after the first two rounds usually end involving names like Russel Wilson and Dak Prescott, players taken in the third and fourth round of the draft.

However, these players are the exception, not the rule.

In order to really see how successful quarterbacks taken after the first two rounds have been, I compiled a table following each quarterback drafted between rounds three and seven from 2010-2015.

I excluded 2016 because it seems too early to determine how successful those quarterbacks taken last year are or will be.

Quarterbacks drafted in rounds 3-7 between 2010-2015

Name	Round	Pick	Year drafted	Drafted by	Current team	# of NFL teams	Starts	Career record	Career passer rating
Colt McCoy	3	85	2010	Cle	Wash	3	25	7-18	78.9
Mike Kafka	4	122	2010	Phi	n/a	7	0	0	47.7
John Skelton	5	155	2010	Ari	n/a	5	17	8-9	63
Jonathan Crompton	5	168	2010	SD/LA	n/a	4	0	0	0
Rusty Smith	6	176	2010	Ten	n/a	2	1	0-1	29.3
Dan LeFevour	6	181	2010	Chi	n/a	5	0	0	0
Joe Webb	6	199	2010	Min	Car	2	2	1-1	66
Tony Pike	6	204	2010	Cin	n/a	1	0	0	60.1
Levi Brown	7	209	2010	Buf	n/a	1	0	0	51.4
Sean Canfield	7	239	2010	NO	n/a	1	0	0	0
Zac Robinson	7	250	2010	NE	n/a	4	0	0	0
Ryan Mallett	3	74	2011	NE	Bal	3	8	3-5	64.9
Ricky Stanzi	5	135	2011	KC	n/a	5	0	0	0
T.J. Yates	5	152	2011	Hou	n/a	3	7	4-3	72.8
Nathan Enderle	5	160	2011	Chi	n/a	4	0	0	0
Tyrod Taylor	6	180	2011	Bal	Buf	2	29	14-14	92.3
Greg McElroy	7	208	2011	NYJ	n/a	2	1	0-1	79.2
Russell Wilson	3	75	2012	Sea	Sea	1	80	56-23-1	99.6
Nick Foles	3	88	2012	Phi	Phi	3	36	20-16	88.1
Kirk Cousins	4	102	2012	Was	Wash	1	41	19-21-1	93.6
Ryan Lindley	6	185	2012	Ari	n/a	4	6	1-5	52.4
BJ Coleman	7	243	2012	GB	n/a	1	0	0	0
Chandler Harnish	7	253	2012	Ind	n/a	3	0	0	0
Mike Glennon	3	73	2013	TB	Chi	2	18	5-13	84.6
Matt Barkley	4	98	2013	Phi	SF	4	6	1-5	63.7
Ryan Nassib	4	110	2013	NYG	n/a	1	0	0	152.1
Tyler Wilson	4	112	2013	Oak/LV	n/a	3	0	0	0
Landry Jones	4	115	2013	Pit	Pit	1	4	2-2	82.8
Brad Sorensen	7	221	2013	SD/LA	n/a	3	0	0	0
Zac Dysert	7	234	2013	Den	Ari	6	0	0	0
BJ Daniels	7	237	2013	SF	Atl	6	0	0	0
Sean Renfree	7	249	2013	Atl	TB	2	0	0	0
Logan Thomas	4	120	2014	Ari	Buf	5	0	0	101.6
Tom Savage	4	135	2014	Hou	Hou	1	2	1-1	74.9
Aaron Murray	5	163	2014	KC	STL/LA	4	0	0	0
AJ McCarron	5	164	2014	Cin	Cin	1	3	2-1	97.1
Zach Mettenberger	6	178	2014	Ten	Pit	3	10	0-10	75.4
David Fales	6	183	2014	Chi	n/a	2	0	0	53.7
Keith Wenning	6	194	2014	Bal	NYG	3	0	0	0
Tajh Boyd	6	213	2014	NYJ	n/a	2	0	0	0
Garrett Gilbert	6	214	2014	STL/LA	Oak	4	0	0	0
Garrett Grayson	3	75	2015	NO	NO	1	0	0	0
Sean Mannion	3	89	2015	STL/LA	STL/LA	1	0	0	43.8
Bryce Petty	4	103	2015	NYJ	NYJ	1	4	1-3	60
Brett Hundley	5	147	2015	GB	GB	1	0	0	0
Trevor Siemian	7	250	2015	Den	Den	1	14	8-6	84.6

Let’s start by breaking this table down by year.

2010

This may be the worst year of this selection. The most successful player of this group is Colt McCoy, who has been on three different NFL teams and is currently the backup in Washington behind Kirk Cousins.

The next successful player is John Skelton, who on paper doesn’t seem terrible. His record in games started is 8-9. However, after spending time with five different NFL teams he hasn’t been on an active NFL roster since 2013. He couldn’t even make it in the CFL; he was signed by the Montreal Alouettes in February of 2015 but was released that May.

The only other player from this draft class on an active roster is Joe Webb, who hasn’t thrown a pass in a game since 2011 (with the Minnesota Vikings). With his current team, the Carolina Panthers, Webb is listed as a quarterback but his only impact has been on special teams.

2011 

2011 isn’t much better than the prior-year but it is salvaged by having one mid-round quarterback currently starting for an NFL team: Tyrod Taylor. Taylor was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens but eventually went on to start for the Buffalo Bills and has been moderately successful.

The highest draft pick of the group, Ryan Mallett, has certainly been a disappointment. After being shipped to Houston, he failed to win a starting job and eventually landed with the Ravens, where he has been serving as a backup.

TJ Yates is the only other player in this group to record a win in games started. His career hasn’t been too bad. He has a surprising win/loss record of 4-3 and seems destined to be a career backup, that is if he can find a new team.

2012

2012 easily has the best group of quarterbacks among the selected years. This collection is headlined by Russell Wilson, who has had a wildly successful career with the Seahawks after being drafted in the third round. Wilson gives many hope that a franchise quarterback can be found later in the draft, but he is a perfect example of a player being the exception, not the rule.

Despite having the third-most career wins among players, Kirk Cousins is easily the second-best player from this draft class. He’s had a rocky career with the Redskins, but he’s improved over the years and appears to be locked in as a starting quarterback in the league.

Nick Foles has had an odd career. He started in Philadelphia and showed some promise, but was later shipped to the Rams where he wasn’t nearly as successful. Foles was with Kansas City briefly last season, then returned home to Philadelphia where he will be backup behind Carson Wentz. Foles may get another chance to start someday, but he may be destined to be a career backup.

2013

After a promising quarterback class in 2012, the following year appears to be a reality check. There are no current starters among these quarterbacks. The most promising players appear to be Mike Glennon and Landry Jones.

Glennon had a chance to start early in his career but was modestly successful. He may get a chance to start for the Bears depending on how they handle the NFL draft, but for now, he technically is the starter. It’s clear the Bear value Glennon, given the large contract they gave him this offseason.

Jones is a more intriguing case. He’s showed equal flashes of brilliance and terribleness throughout his career in Pittsburgh and has failed to prove he can be a consistent option. While Glennon has the chance to start, Jones accepted two more years of being a backup, signing a very team-friendly deal with the Steelers.

2014

Yet another group where no starting quarterback has emerged. Oddly enough the highest drafted player in this class doesn’t even play quarterback anymore: Logan Thomas transitioned to a tight end with the Bills.

The rest of the group is littered with backups. The most promising player currently appears to be AJ McCarron, who has proved to be a competent backup for the Bengals. He even has a winning record when starting.

Tom Savage and Zach Mettenberger are the remaining players who have had starting opportunities, but neither has shown they can be a consistent passer in the NFL. Mettenberger has disappointed, failing to win a single game despite 10 career starts. Savage was benched for Brock Osweiler last season, which speaks volumes.

2015

The most recent group and again a disappointing one. Shockingly the most successful player has been Trevor Siemian, a seventh-round pick who had an 8-6 record when starting for the Broncos in 2016. It’s still to be determined how successful his career will be. He’s off to a promising start, but Denver used a first round draft pick on Paxton Lynch last year as an insurance policy if that promise starts to wear off.

The highest drafted player of the group, Garrett Grayson, has arguably been the worst of the group. Grayson is still on the Saints roster, but he was cut in September of 2016 and went unclaimed. Yes, a third-round quarterback went untouched in this QB-hungry league.

He returned to New Orleans in January, signing a futures contract with the Saints.

The rest of the players are still unproven. Brett Hundley hasn’t had many opportunities with the Packers because he sits behind Aaron Rogers. Bryce Petty received playing time in 2016 with a terrible Jets team. It may be too early to declare Sean Mannion’s future, but the Rams drafted Jared Goff with the first overall pick in the 2016 draft for a reason. While Goff sat through the early portions of last season, the Rams chose to start Case Keenum over Mannion. That too could be telling of Mannion’s ability.

By the numbers

As you can see, mid-late round quarterbacks have had wildly inconsistent success. Here’s a breakdown by the numbers:

• 46 quarterbacks have been drafted in rounds 3-7 between 2010 and 2015.
• 5 of these quarterbacks are currently starting on an NFL team, equaling an 11% starting rate.
• 30 of these players have been on multiple NFL rosters.
• 18 of these players aren’t currently on an NFL roster. Also worth noting is many of these quarterbacks are on a roster because they recently signed a futures contract. This translates to roughly 60% of the quarterbacks maintaining an NFL career.
• 7 of these players have career win/loss records of .500 or better in games started.
• 2 quarterbacks drafted in the 3rd round are currently starting for an NFL team: Russell Wilson & Mike Glennon
• 1 quarterback drafted in the 4th round is currently starting for an NFL team: Kirk Cousins.
• 1 quarterback drafted in the 6th round is currently starting for an NFL team: Tyrod Taylor. (Note: Tom Brady was not a part of this case study since he was drafted before 2010.)
• 1 quarterback drafted in the 7th round is currently starting for an NFL team: Trevor Siemian.

Conclusion

The data shows that while it is possible to find a starting quarterback in the later rounds of the draft, it is extremely difficult. The narrative that mid-round starters can be found was complicated by the emergence of Dak Prescott this season, making everyone believe a “Dak Prescott” can be found in every draft class.

This isn’t the case.

Teams have repeatedly failed to develop mid-round quarterbacks and it’s a trend that will continue. While every couple of years a diamond in the rough can be found, these players are always the exception, not the rule.

For those thinking a late-round quarterback can be developed and groomed into an eventual starter, take a look at the data. Most late round quarterbacks are names you’ve never heard of. The quarterback position is the most coveted in the NFL. If teams think a player can be a legitimate contributor, they take him earlier. Sixth and seventh round flyers almost never work out.

To wrap this up, the point of this exercise is to provide context for the idea of the Steelers drafting a mid-to-late round quarterback. The majority of quarterbacks drafted beyond the first two rounds tend to bounce around NFL rosters and never turn into legitimate starters.

Third-round draft picks fail more often than they succeed. This makes drafting a mid-to-late quarterback not worth the resources or the potential in getting contributors at other positions.