Steelers draft targets for every round: edge rusher edition
We’re trying something new (and hopefully different) here at SCU. Up until the NFL Draft, we will be publishing a series of “cheat sheets” intended to mock potential fits for the Steelers at a single position. For example, what if Pittsburgh passes on a cornerback and takes an edge rusher (or outside linebacker) in the first round? What corners are left for them to choose in round two? And if they pass again, who might be their pick in round three? And so forth.
The concept here is not to say all of these players will be drafted by the Steelers, rather, what players could be around at each stage of the draft, should Pittsburgh still have a need at that point?
For each round, please consider that the mock draft simulations I used had certain players off of the board. Some guesses are better than others (Myles Garrett will not make it to the Steelers pick number 30 in the first round, for example) but the important thing to realize when making predictions is that they are in fact a guess!
Today we’re going to evaluate the edge rushers, better known as the outside linebackers in the Steelers 3-4 defensive scheme. Pittsburgh has eight picks total, one in each round except the third, where they have two.
Let’s look at each round to see who they might select.
Round 1
Derek Rivers – Youngstown State
If Takkarist McKinley wasn’t recovering from shoulder surgery, and if I actually thought he’d be on the board at 30 (it’s possible, but I doubt it), I’d take Takk. McKinely probably has the most upside of anyone in this group but is still very raw. I think he is a perfect fit for the Steelers, but I don’t think he’ll be there because I don’t think he gets past Detroit, and if he does, then Dallas may snap him up.
If you’ve read anything I’ve written on the draft or listened to anything I have said you know I am all about #TAKEMETOTHERIVERS and I’m not going to change my tune now. Derek Rivers is the pick here because while he is not as polished as Carl Lawson as a pass rusher right now, he has more athleticism and more upside. The fact that he comes free from the baggage following Tim Williams also makes this a safer pick for the Steelers.
The caveat is that the Steelers rarely if ever, use their first round draft pick on a small school guy. I’ll be honest, I want Rivers in Pittsburgh, but I would be happier if they went corner in the first and were able to pick Rivers up in the second. I don’t think that’s going to happen, too many boards have Rivers rated as late one to early two.
If the Steelers want Rivers, this is where they will likely have to get him.
Round 2
Tarell Basham – Ohio
This is where I would like to take Derek Rivers. However, he was only available to the Steelers at 62 in four of the ten scenarios I ran. That’s not enough for me to think he’ll be around, and is in part why I said he’s the pick at 30. Still, if they think he will be there, or they have a plan to leverage one of their other picks to move up and get him, I’d rather take him in the second.
The problem is that I think 90% of the top EDGE prospects are gone at this point in the draft, which is why I think they have to go EDGE in the first round. However, if there is a CB prospect that is too good to pass up, then I’m hoping either Derek Rivers or Carl Lawson fall this far.
I don’t expect Jordon Willis to be here at 62 – he’s been climbing the boards and generating interest. I doubt that Carl Lawson is here, although he was in six out of ten draft sims I ran. If the Cowboys don’t go EDGE in the 1st, and he’s around in the 2nd, I think they jump on him.
If not, then it’s between Ryan Anderson and Tarell Basham and I think I have to pick Basham.
Anderson is the guy with tremendous football IQ and heart, but Basham is the one with the talent. He’s big, strong, and powerful, but raw. He needs grooming, but under the tutelage of Joey Porter and James Harrison, I think he can be tempered into something awesome.
Plus there is that name – Basham (I’m just sayin’).
Round 3
Dawaune Smoot – Illinois
The Steelers have two potential shots at an EDGE player in round 3. Of the remaining guys, the most intriguing are Dawaune Smoot, Carroll Phillips, and Joe Mathis. In my honest opinion, there are only two guys on this list with starter potential – Smoot and Mathis.
Both have issues.
Smoot has only average burst and needs to add weight to avoid being swallowed by NFL tackles. His NFL draft page likens him to Anthony Chickillo, but I see too much Jarvis Jones in him to make me feel comfortable.
Mathis doesn’t possess elite athleticism and isn’t a twitchy pass rusher. What he does have are physicality and strength. He needs to get quicker and develop his pass rush skills to become a contributing starter.
Between the two, I lean towards Smoot having more potential, but it’s really a toss-up.
Round 4
Vince Biegel – Wisconsin
If Ejuan Price had just a little more height, he’d be the pick. I just can’t take a guy under 6’ to be an OLB for the Steelers. Trey Hendrickson is intriguing, but I think he is a better DE fit, and Deatrich Wise might have potential, but not at OLB, but as a 3-4 DE, so he could be a target (just not as an OLB).
If Mathis is still on the board, I would take him here, but let’s assume he’s gone, in which case the pick is between Carroll Phillips or Biegel.
I’ll take Vince Biegel. I think he can add high value on special teams while he ramps up to being a possible serviceable backup. I don’t see him as having starter potential, but I do think he can be a contributor.
Round 5
Samson Ebukam – Eastern Washington
The wild card, and the pick in this round is Samson Ebukam from Eastern Washington.
I really like Ebukam, and I’m not alone. He popped up on the radar a couple of weeks ago when he started visiting a bevy of NFL teams. It’s possible he creeps up to the higher rounds, but if he’s still around in the fifth, I’d grab him: even if we have already addressed EDGE earlier in the draft.
I’d even consider him in the fourth round because frankly, I think he has more upside. I put him here because he’s not rated on almost any draft board, so it’s hard to measure his grade, but I’d put him at 4-5.
Round 6
Keion Adams – Western Michigan
Teams are drafting special teams players and backups at this point. Based solely on interest by the Steelers, the pick here is Keion Adams. Adams’ NFL comparison is Arthur Moats, which isn’t a bad thing. There are questions about whether he can set the edge and be a starting OLB, but he can provide quality depth and value on special teams, and has the potential to develop into more.
Round 7
Javancy Jones – Jackson State
Let’s be honest – in the seventh round you are really throwing darts at the board, and you’re hoping for a diamond in the rough, but expecting, well, probably not much.
Based solely on interest again, Javancy Jones is the pick.
Jones has talent, but he really needs to add bulk, and he’s really not fast. He’s a project, but then again, anyone drafted this low is a project.
Conclusion
As you can see this is a draft where there is a lot of depth at this position. The problem is there is also a lot of need for this position. The top guys are going to dry up fast, and potentially right before the Steelers draft, or immediately after.
As I mentioned, they have to be careful about Atlanta potentially jumping them, and if Takkarist McKinley is still on the board at 26/27, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone jumps up to get him.
Should the Steelers do that?
I don’t know, it really depends on how much they like him. I think I’d be cautious about trading up to get a guy who just had shoulder surgery and might miss, at a minimum, half of the season.
Should they consider Tim Williams?
It sure looks like they are, but I just can’t see the Steelers using a high pick on a player with that many red flags.
We’ll all find out what’s going to happen come April 27th. All I can do until then is just keep on singing: “Take me to the Rivers…”
https://www.steelcityunderground.com/guides/steelers-war-room-inside-pittsburgh-steelers-plans-2017-nfl-draft/
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