Arguments for and against the Steelers drafting a QB
Okay Steelers Nation, I know some of you are chomping at the bit to put Big Ben out to pasture and find his successor. I know others don’t want to use a high pick on a quarterback, suggesting the team develop a young passer. Then there are others who say not to use any pick at all on a QB.
And that’s just scratching the surface!
I thought it might be a good idea to explore this from every angle. So let’s find out why it would be a good or bad idea for Pittsburgh to take Roethlisberger’s replacement in the 2017 NFL Draft!
Late first round pick
The Steelers have the 30th overall pick in the draft. In other words, several quarterbacks could be off of the board by the time their pick rolls around.
It all depends on how scouts view the available prospects. In prior drafts, we’ve witnessed only one quarterback go in the first round (E.J. Manuel, 2013) or as many as 4-5 get picked instantly.
My thought on using the first round pick on a quarterback is as follows: do you really want the fourth or fifth “best” passer remaining in the draft? Or would you prefer getting a prime player at the top of another position?
Mid-round success rate
The success rate of quarterbacks is pretty dismal as-is. Unfortunately, statistics show the later a QB is drafted, the more likely it is that they will fail.
There are exceptions to the rule, but in general, you are gambling with a quarterback drafted outside of the first two rounds. Even those mid-to-late round picks who ended up with a sizable amount of NFL starts aren’t the kind of quarterbacks fans are flocking to call a future Hall of Fame candidate: players such as Kirk Cousins, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Shaub all come to mind.
A lot of fans feel the New England Patriots develop quality backup quarterbacks. This is largely a myth.
The most recent New England castaway, Ryan Mallett, couldn’t take the torch in Houston. Matt Cassel had a great year with the Patriots and has all but disappeared from the league since (bouncing to his fifth team since leaving the Patriots in 2009). Ditto for Brian Hoyer.
And if you have anything positive to say about Rohan Davey, a fourth-round pick by the Pats in 2002, I’d love to hear it!
The general consensus is that you could get lucky with a later round pick, but don’t expect the world either. Therefore, is it worth using that pick on a QB?
Other areas of need
As most who have followed my articles or the podcast know, I’m vehemently against the Steelers spending a high pick on a quarterback, and feel they should take care of other areas of need first.
Those areas are “play now” type players, such as those on the defense. Perhaps a backup running back or a wide receiver.
Consider the Steelers are looking for the eventual replacements for aging players such as James Harrison and William Gay, potential insurance against injuries or suspensions to Le’Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant or Ladarius Green as well. Finding a backup running back behind Bell or help with the pass rush and secondary should all but trump the “need” for drafting a quarterback.
Lack of talent in draft class
Quite honestly, the quarterback position is always over-hyped because it is arguably the most important spot on the field.
I believe this year’s draft class is equally over-hyped. When scouts and analysts cannot agree on the top quarterback, or even separate the pack with the top two, or maybe three, that means there’s an indecision with the talent each of these prospects possesses.
Don’t get me wrong: any of the incoming quarterback class could surprise us. However, the notion is that none of them are game-ready for the NFL. Each has a knock on their resume in which they will overcome.
With that iffiness, taking a quarterback could be a greater risk than it may have been in recent years.
Ben is ready to retire
If I had a nickel for every time someone thought that Ben said he was retiring (words that literally never came out of his mouth) I would be a rich man.
But I will indulge those who bought the hype surrounding Ben’s comments less than two days removed from the Steelers loss in the AFC Championship game.
Let’s just say he is looking to hang up his cleats soon. How soon is too soon to start looking for the next franchise quarterback?
While it’s true that drafting a quarterback this year would give them a season to prepare with Roethlisberger as a mentor, I wouldn’t expect any second-year quarterback to easily step into an NFL starting role after not throwing a pass for an entire year.
I’ve also considered a situation where Ben wants to win some Super Bowls and still has several years left on his contract. He’s also younger than many of his counterparts such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees. In other words, Ben has a lot of life left should he still want to continue playing close to his fortieth birthday.
I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: we do not want the Brett Favre retirement situation to play out in Pittsburgh with Big Ben. We also do not want a Denver Broncos scenario where they lost both Peyton Manning and his backup Brock Osweiler.
Planning for the future
My gut tells me that the Steelers are at least a year off from having a realistic consideration at finding a replacement (not just a backup) for Roethlisberger.
Stuff happens too. Drew Bledsoe gets hurt giving way to Tom Brady. Tony Romo gets hurt and Dak Prescott falls to the fourth round of the NFL Draft last year. Russell Wilson ends up being better than Matt Flynn or Tarvaris Jackson in training camp, and the coaches take the risk of starting him over the better-paid passers.
I’m not saying this couldn’t happen in Pittsburgh too. In fact, it already has.
Tommy Maddox was the starter when Ben Roethlisberger was drafted. Maddox ended up getting injured, and never got his job back.
A similar situation could play out again, but it would have to be pretty serious for the Steelers to consider benching or parting ways with a quarterback who owns just about every franchise passing record.
In other words: you can have the best laid plans for the future, but you’ll never be able to predict it!
