How Long Will The Steelers “Super Bowl Window” Stay Open?
The Lombardi Trophy.
For the Steelers, and every other NFL team, that’s what it’s really all about, isn’t it?
Becoming Super Bowl Champions is the stated goal of the Pittsburgh Steelers every year. When they get there, as they’ve done more often than any other team in the history of the NFL, it’s mission accomplished. When they don’t, they don’t take or seek comfort in having gotten close. The stated goal was not met, and they begin again on the journey for next season.
Let’s be realistic for a moment. The Steelers, or any other team, are not going to win the Super Bowl every single year. There are too many variables involved: injuries, free agency, and a certain amount of luck all impact a team’s chances. It is fair, however, to say that certain teams, during certain time frames, have a better chance to achieve that ultimate goal.
Right now, the Steelers are one of those teams. They are living in that moment in time; a window that remains open for a while, then closes, and nobody can say for sure when it will crack itself open again.
Is the Steelers Super Bowl Window Closing?
In a video podcast, I recently talked about the Steelers and this particular window of opportunity. The truth is, right now, this second, their Super Bowl Window is probably as wide open as it’s going to get.
Just look at how this team is setup.
- Martavis Bryant is back.
- Cam Heyward is returning.
- Antonio Brown is locked up for the foreseeable future.
Sean Davis, Artie Burns and Javon Hargrave are all entering their second full season, each with more experience than most second-year players have. Mike Tomlin has stated repeatedly that they expect a marked improvement from second-year players, and there is no reason to think these three guys won’t show that improvement.
Bud Dupree should be available for a full season and should continue to grow and improve after working with Chuck Smith, perhaps the most respected and effective pass rush trainers available. Mix in a future Hall of Fame quarterback (Ben), a potential Hall of Fame receiver (AB) and the best running back in the league right now (Le’Veon).
Add in whatever descriptive phrase you want: this team is stocked. The “Super Bowl Window” is open for the Steelers right now, and it’s open wide.
Of course, that wasn’t the question, was it?
The question is, is that window going to close soon, or is it starting to close now? Not to hedge my bets, but… maybe?
Potential Hurdles
For this year, I think the window stays fully open. It’s up to the Steelers to climb through it.
After this year?
Well, there are hurdles.
Ben
I think it’s fair to say that we are likely to face a few years of “Brett Favre Syndrome”, meaning that after the end of every season, we’ll have to wonder if Ben is going to retire or come back.
However, I remain a believer that Ben will play out his current contract. Ben is signed through 2019 and is scheduled to make a base salary of $12 million each year. In 2018 and 2019 he is in line for an additional $5 million roster bonus. In 2020, when he would potentially be an unrestricted free agent, he will be 38 years old.
If Ben walks away in 2018, he’s leaving $34 million dollars on the table; not to mention the possibility that he might have to repay his prorated signing bonus ($6.2 million a year). That would mean he would be on the hook for an additional $12.4 million.
Barring some unforeseen situation with an injury or something that makes playing a much riskier prospect, I think Ben is the quarterback through 2019.
In 2020, all bets are off.
Le’Veon Bell
Le’Veon Bell is playing under the franchise tag at the moment. That means he’s scheduled to earn $12.12 million dollars this year. It would behoove the Steelers to sign Bell to something long term if they can.
The question is whether the team values Bell as much as he values himself. It might be more accurate to ask if the team values the running back position as much as Bell does. There is no question the Steelers like Bell, and want him under contract, possibly an extension to give them some cap relief (his hit this year is the full $12.12 million).
To be frank, it also protects the team. Over the last four years, Bell has played all 16 games once (in 2014). However, he was injured in that last game and missed the playoffs that year.
When Bell is healthy he is the most versatile and best overall back in the league. But history shows that he isn’t always healthy, and has had trouble staying that way. The groin injury he suffered last year, which took him out of the Patriots game, was another in what seems to be a never-ending series of injuries that have plagued him.
The risk of injury is there and the Steelers are aware of those issues. It has to impact the amount of money they are willing to invest in Bell. If they can’t come to an agreement that works for both parties, Bell may be playing under the franchise tag again in 2018 and could be out of Pittsburgh in 2019.
If Bell goes, that changes the dynamic of the offense, and could slightly close the window. (Although they have enough weapons to overcome his loss right now.)
Martavis Bryant
The Steelers offense was not what it was supposed to be last year. The primary reason was the lack of a consistent secondary threat to go along with Antonio Brown.
Martavis Bryant was that threat in 2015, and he could be that threat in 2017 as well. By all accounts, Bryant is focused, in incredible shape, and faster and stronger than he was before.
For 2017 and 2018 Martavis is going to be a bargain. His rookie deal slides a year because of his suspension, so he’s still on that contract through 2018. Bryant is making a $690,000 base salary right now, but if the “alien” really does evolve into something monstrous, he is going to be looking to “eat”. With his history, it’s unlikely the Steelers are going to be willing to extend him before his rookie deal expires, which will make him an unrestricted free agent in 2019.
The Steelers didn’t draft JuJu Smith-Schuster to replace Martavis Bryant or anyone else for that matter. It’s simple business. Sammie Coates‘ deal expires at the same time as Martavis’ does, so it’s only prudent to have a backup plan. Justin Hunter and JuJu are both insurance policies. The Steelers certainly want to believe that their potential superstar has put his issues behind him. He’s doing the right things and surrounding himself with the right people.
I believe in Martavis Bryant. I believe he’s going to blow up the league this year. I believe he might follow that up with another monster year in 2018. Then I believe he will get his money and likely be in another city on another team. Not that that is what I want, but I have faith that he’s going to be that good, and the Steelers may not be able to afford the price tag he’s going to command.
If we only get to see him perform for another two years, if he leaves, I don’t think the Steelers will find themselves in the same position they were in 2016. Juju and Justin Hunter give them options they simply didn’t have last season, keeping that window a bit more open than before.
Conclusion
Read between the lines a little bit and you can see that I think 2017 and 2018 are the last two years where the “Super Bowl Window” remains wide open. 2019 is possibly the season it starts closing again, and in 2020, it may slam shut for a while.
Or at the very least, be nearly closed.
The bottom line to me is that the window remains open for as long as Ben Roethlisberger chooses to play. The day Ben goes up to Art Rooney II and says “I’m done” is the day the window closes.
Is that 2018? 2019? 2020?
If I were a betting man, I’d go with 2020, but you never know. If Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant both leave in 2019, does Ben stay another year?
That is hard to say and could depend on how much potential and improvement other guys, like JuJu, Justin Hunter, and Jesse James, plus additions between now and then, show. I feel comfortable that the Steelers have two more years where they will be in the Super Bowl conversation as realistic contenders.
After that, I think it’s very likely the window may be closing. Let’s just hope that when it does, it’s not 15 years before they get there again, and 26 before they win another.
