NFL Top 100: Carr and Prescott better than Ben Roethlisberger?
Let me get this out of the way right from the start – the NFL Top 100 list is stupid. Not just a little stupid, but really, really stupid.
Without going into tremendous detail about how stupid it is, let’s just ask J.J. Watt what he thinks of the list:
I played 3 games… this list is a joke. https://t.co/KnKDX1p816
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) June 6, 2017
Exactly.
The whole concept of the list is just absurd. It’s nothing more than a popularity contest amongst the players – if, in fact, the players are even voting! I do not wear a tin-foil hat. I do not think that the NSA is out to get me (I do sometimes say hello to them when I make a phone call because I know they are listening). But sometimes I do question the authenticity of certain things: and I just wanted to be clear that I think the list is stupid.
Now on to my point.
Quarterbacks
Steelers fans love to feel persecuted. They love to feel like their guys are being persecuted. (To be fair, it may not just be Steelers fans, but all football fans.)
- The refs hate us.
- The league is against us.
- The schedule is always biased.
- Ben never gets the credit he deserves.
The thing is, that last one really does feel like it’s true. (Yeah, I know the refs are really out to get us and Roger Goodell is behind it all). We’re protective of “most” of our players, and none more than our stars getting the recognition we feel they deserve.
The NFL’s Top 100 List has been around since 2011. In those seven years, Ben Roethlisberger has managed to appear on the list every year but has ranked 41st, 30th, 61st, 31st, 26th, and 21st (last year). This year he comes in as the 22nd-best player in the league.
Seriously, the best he’s been ranked is 21st, and that was last year, not this year?
Let me try and see if I have this right – only four quarterbacks made it to the Conference Championship games: Big Ben, Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers, and Matt Ryan. I could live with the argument that Brady, Rogers, and Ryan should be ahead of Ben on the list.
Maybe.
I can make an argument for last year influencing this year’s list. But Dak Prescott? Derek Carr? Hell, even Drew Brees is somewhat questionable at this point of his career. (I can live with Brees at least since he puts up big numbers each season with a mediocre franchise.)
But Derek and Dak? Let’s have a look!
Derek Carr
Derek Carr was number 100 on last year’s list. This year he jumps to 11? How many Raiders were allowed to vote in this thing? Were dead Raiders allowed to vote? Did individual players cast several dozen ballots each?
I’ll agree that Carr improved over last year; that’s not a question. But did he suddenly become the 11th-best player in the league?
Let’s take a quick look at Carr’s last two seasons.
| Cmp | Att | Cmp % | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rate | 4QC | GWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 350 | 573 | 61.1 | 3987 | 32 | 13 | 7 | 91.1 | 4 | 4 |
| 2016 | 357 | 560 | 63.8 | 3937 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 96.7 | 7 | 7 |
Yes, Carr had a better year in 2016 than he did in 2015, but let’s be serious here: it’s marginal at best! He threw seven more completions, for 50 less yards and four less touchdowns. He cut down his interceptions by more than half, but his rating was only 5.6 points higher.
That doesn’t translate to jumping 89 spots on a top 100 list. Not even close.
(I want to see those votes!)
Dak Prescott
As if that isn’t absurd enough, Dak Prescott comes in at 14 on the list after his first year. Here is Dak’s stat line for 2016:
| Cmp | Att | Cmp % | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rate | 4QC | GWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 311 | 459 | 67.8 | 3667 | 23 | 4 | 7.9 | 104.9 | 5 | 5 |
I know Cowboys fans can be equally protective of their players and will complain about my complaining. But saying Dak is the 14th-best player in the NFL isn’t realistic. Dak had a good year – no question, but not a top 15 year.
Prescott had the benefit of playing behind an offensive line that is unquestionably one of, if not the best in the league. He had the benefit of a freakishly over-performing run game thanks to Ezekiel Elliott.
However, I feel Dak was a game manager, not a difference maker. He gets credit for a “fourth quarter comeback” against the Steelers, but it was really Zeke who won that game, not Dak. (Technically, it was Jarvis Jones who let the Dallas running back spring free for that last score.)
Does Dak deserve to be on the Top 100 list?
Probably. He had a solid rookie campaign, but was he a league leader in anything?
- Passing TD’s? Nope. (Ranked 16th.)
- Passing yards? Nope. (19th.)
- Passing yard per game? Nope. (24th.)
Prescott however, did come in third in passer rating, fourth in yards per pass attempt and sixth in long passes. Dak deserves to be in the Top 100, but probably not in the Top 50. Not based on his productivity, and taking into account what he had around him. Comparing him to Tom Brady, who had the second-highest QB rating, Dak threw for 100 more yards and had 27 more pass attempts. Brady finished 2nd overall on this list last year and will be a contender for the top spot again on the 2017 version.
The difference between Prescott and Brady? Brady played four fewer games and threw five more touchdowns (and a freakishly low two interceptions, half of what Dak had with four). Dak has played one year. It was a good year, but not a great year. Losing in the first round of the playoffs doesn’t help justify his spot much either.
He may be a great quarterback, and he may not be a great quarterback. There simply isn’t enough of a body of work to make a prediction. Saying that he’s going to be the 14th-best player in the league next year is a stretch.
And I doubt he’s a top 50 player: mark it down.
Ben Roethlisberger
I need to bring this back to Ben now. Was 2016 Ben’s best season? No, it wasn’t. You can certainly argue that 2015 was a better year.
But dig a little deeper and look at what Ben accomplished in 2016. He had some things he needed to overcome. He was without Le’Veon Bell for three games, without Martavis Bryant for the full season, and was injured midseason. He was without Heath Miller, which simply cannot be dismissed or undervalued.
Yes, Roethlisberger had Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon was there for most of the year. The thing is, teams started to figure out that if you triple-team Antonio Brown, there wasn’t really anyone to be afraid of. Eli Rogers had some solid games, no question. Sammie Coates was a threat until he got hurt. Therefore Ben was working with a less than complete set of weapons, and yet he managed to come in 6th in the league in passing touchdowns, 9th in the league in yards per game and 6th in the league in net yards per pass attempt.
Look at the stats for 2016 all together:
| Cmp | Att | Cmp % | Yds | TD | Int | Y/A | Rate | 4QC | GWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prescott | 311 | 459 | 67.8 | 3667 | 23 | 4 | 7.9 | 104.9 | 5 | 5 |
| Carr | 357 | 560 | 63.8 | 3937 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 96.7 | 7 | 7 |
| Roethlisberger | 328 | 509 | 64.4 | 3819 | 29 | 13 | 7.5 | 95.4 | 2 | 2 |
Take into account the complimentary pieces in place for all three teams, and you tell me whose season was really the most impressive.
Conclusion
The bottom line is this – these lists are supposed to be a projection for the 2017 season based on a player’s past performance, and projected changes to the team for the upcoming season.
Derek Carr is coming off a major knee injury. Can anyone say he will be unaffected? How can you honestly project Carr to be the 11th-best player in the NFL based on that?
Prescott returns with basically the same offensive group he had last season but will face a much more challenging schedule than he did last year, with away games in Denver, Arizona, Atlanta and Oakland, and visits from the Packers, Chiefs, and Seahawks.
This is going to be a much more difficult season for the Cowboys. Most of their offseason moves were centered around the defense. The only major addition to their offense was the selection of rookie WR Ryan Switzer. We’ll have to see how much he contributes.
So again, how do you project Dak as the 14th-best player in the league?
Then there is Ben.
He gets Martavis Bryant back. He gets Le’Veon Bell for a full season. He has a dedicated and happy Antonio Brown. Then the Steelers drafted James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster to bolster an already stacked offense which also adds WR Justin Hunter to the mix. The only real question on that side of the ball for Pittsburgh is the tight end position; that was a question last year too, but the addition of Smith-Schuster might provide options for four and five receiver sets.
I like the situation Ben is going to be in more than Derek or Dak. Only time will tell, but when the 2017 season ends, I’d bet that the future Hall of Fame quarterback who plays in Pittsburgh is a better bet to be a top 15 player.
