2017 stat predictions for the Steelers season: offense
Every year at this time, we as fans like to take a stab at predicting player statistics for the upcoming season. Stats are typically an indicator of how well players are performing for their team. Though they are not a formula for measuring success, fans are always interested in the box score after the game.
While stats are always difficult to predict and almost never spot-on, we’ve got a relatively clear picture of how things are going to be shaping out this year for the Steelers offense.
For this piece, I breakdown ESPN’s projected player statistics for each important skill position on the Steelers offense. I also give my own input and predictions for the upcoming NFL season:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
| PROJECTION | C/A | Comp. % | YDS | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 328/509 | 64.4 | 3,819 | 29 | 13 |
| ESPN | 356/545.2 | 65.3 | 4,232.40 | 26.8 | 13.8 |
| My Projection | 371/568 | 65.3 | 4,497 | 31 | 14 |
Ben Roethlisberger had a “so-so” year in 2016. Though his stat line was respectable, 9 of his 29 touchdowns came in back-to-back home games at the beginning of the season. Ben finished the last 9 games of the season with just 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He also posted 6 games last season with a quarterback rating below 79. However, in steps Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald, and Justin Hunter. Ben should be in for a much better year this season, which should include more completions, passing attempts, yardage, and touchdowns (Martavis being the biggest factor for the change). Though he has always struggled with turning the ball over, Roethlisberger is poised for a solid year in 2017 with numerous additions to the offense.
RB: Le’Veon Bell
| PROJECTION | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | TD | REC | YARDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 261 | 1,268 | 4.9 | 7 | 75 | 616 | 2 |
| ESPN | 303.6 | 1396.6 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 81.9 | 672.2 | 3.7 |
| My Projection | 299 | 1421 | 4.75 | 8 | 77 | 632 | 3 |
Assuming Bell plays every game, he will no doubt build on the success of last season. In 2016, he was suspended the first three games of the season and was a healthy scratch for the final game again Cleveland. I have Le’Veon nearly reaching 300 carries with over 1,400 yards rushing. However, it’s unlikely he’s able to maintain his 4.9 yards per rush average. Bell will still get a ton of work in the receiving game, but expect the reunion of Martavis Bryant to cut into some of his targets. Bell and Bryant played just three games together in 2015. Before that, the last time they were both on the field was December of 2014.
RB: James Conner
| PROJECTION | RUSH | YDS | YDS/A | TD | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ESPN | 59.9 | 235 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 35.8 | 0.1 |
| My Projection | 68 | 327 | 4.8 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
It didn’t take James Conner long to become a fan favorite. However, most of those fans are going to have to wait a year before they see their favorite player take more than just a handful of snaps per game. With Bell healthy and ready to go, Conner won’t see the field often in Pittsburgh. When he does, however, don’t be surprised if he impresses. He seems to do that to people. The Steelers will likely find that it’s good to give their star running back a breather now and then. I have Conner getting a respectable 68 carries in his rookie season. An injury to Bell could really skyrocket his production in his first year.
WR: Antonio Brown
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 106 | 1,284 | 12.1 | 12 |
| ESPN | 108.5 | 1,426 | 13.1 | 7.6 |
| My Projection | 104 | 1332 | 12.8 | 9 |
Brown had somewhat of a disappointing season last year from what we have come to expect. He was drawing difficult coverage, and there was no other active receiver that could help aleviate the pressure. Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, and Darrius Heyward-Bey all missed major time, if not the whole season. With Bryant back to help stretch the field, Brown should be back to his usually self. Approaching 30 years old now, Brown will probably never see another 1,800 yard season like he had in 2015. However, it’s to be expected that AB will grab over 100 balls and account for a major portion of the Steelers total offense. With targets to share, I have Brown increasing his yards and average yards per catch, but likely a few less touchdowns this year.
WR: Martavis Bryant
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | – | – | – | – |
| ESPN | 62 | 926 | 14.9 | 7 |
| My Projection | 79 | 1190 | 15.0 | 11 |
Martavis exploded onto the scene as a rookie – grabbing 6 touchdowns in his first 4 NFL games. Bryant may be a little rusty to begin the season, but should catch fire quickly. Assuming he could play a full season for the first time in his short NFL career, Martavis could be in for close to 80 catches for nearly 1,200 yards. Bryant is also a redzone threat with the ability for double-digit scores. His presence should easily be the biggest improvement on the Steelers roster this year.
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | – | – | – | – |
| ESPN | 14.2 | 173 | 12.3 | 1.3 |
| My Projection | 26 | 280 | 10.7 | 2 |
JuJu is a tough projection. Not only is he one of the youngest players in the NFL, he has missed some time during training camp and the preseason with minor injuries. With a healthy and capable slot receiver in Eli Rogers in the mix, JuJu could have a difficult time finding the field early in the season. Assuming he can stay healthy, I do think he will outperform his projection from ESPN.
WR: Eli Rogers
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 48 | 594 | 12.4 | 3 |
| ESPN | 33.6 | 412 | 12.4 | 2.1 |
| My Projection | 29 | 358 | 12.3 | 2 |
Eli Rogers has been a great undrafted free agent signing by the Steelers. In his first season on an active roster, Rogers proved to be a reliable route runner with consistent hands (which was rare for a Pittsburgh receiver last year). With a slew of injuries/suspensions in the receiving core, Rogers became the Steelers third leading receiver last season (behind Brown and Bell, respectively). This year, however, Martavis Bryant is back in the mix along with newcomer JuJu Smith-Schuster. Expect a noticeably smaller role for Rogers this season.
TE: Vance McDonald
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 24 | 391 | 16.3 | 4 |
| ESPN | 20.5 | 251 | 12.2 | 2.2 |
| My Projection | 27 | 356 | 13.1 | 2 |
Having no opportunity to see Vance McDonald play with the Steelers yet, it’s hard to say how he will do. However, I think it’s unlikly the Steelers traded for a tight end with a sizable contract right before the season opener if they weren’t planning on using him. McDonald was used to stretch the seam in San Francisco as he averaged a whopping 16.3 yards per catch (more than every qualifying receiver on the Steelers last season). Though McDonald could certainly take over as the Steelers full-time starter at tight end, I don’t believe he will see a ton of work in the receiving game, as Ben will likely look elsewhere on passing downs.
TE: Jesse James
| PROJECTION | REC | YDS | AVG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Stats | 39 | 338 | 8.7 | 3 |
| ESPN | 31.2 | 325 | 10.4 | 2.7 |
| My Projection | 23 | 219 | 9.5 | 2 |
The trade for McDonald pretty much solidifies the fact that Jesse James will play a much smaller role in 2017. James has seen his share of struggles when it comes to both blocking and receiving. Even though he played in all 16 regular season games last year, James managed just 39 catches for 338 yards. His 6’7” frame still makes him a potential redzone target, but the Steelers have much better options when throwing the ball. Expect lower production out of James this year.
