Relying on strength of schedule a mistake for Steelers
I’ve mentioned before how strength of schedule predictions can be skewed and one of the things that happens around mid-season is that teams are re-analyzed based on the remainder of their schedules. Using traditional methods, the Steelers look to have an easy schedule in the second half of their season, with just the New England Patriots holding – entering Week 9 – the same win-loss record as the Steelers. That doesn’t mean the Steelers can afford to overlook any of their future opponents if they hope to make a legitimate run for a playoff berth, let alone another trip to the Super Bowl.
The updated strength of schedule by Fantasy Index has the Steelers listed as the 7th easiest schedule in the second half of the season (at 23.1) while NFLTR has the Steelers listed as the 4th easiest (at 18.90). These numbers may help fantasy football coaches/team owners, but they do little to figure how a team will play week-to-week.
The Steelers’ remaining schedule paints an interesting picture.
| Upcoming Opponents | Week | Opp. Record W/L (as of Wk 8) |
|---|---|---|
| at Colts | 10 | 2-6 |
| vs Titans | 11 | 4-3 |
| vs Packers | 12 | 4-3 |
| at Bengals | 13 | 3-4 |
| vs Ravens | 14 | 4-4 |
| vs Patriots | 15 | 6-2 |
| at Texans | 16 | 3-4 |
| vs Browns | 17 | 0-8 |
Analysis reveals that some personnel changes by opponents, mainly due to injury, could factor into the games in a major way.
The Green Bay Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers after he broke his collarbone for the second time in his career when they face the Steelers because he was placed on injured reserve (on Oct. 20) and must sit out a minimum of eight weeks.
The Houston Texans have lost rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (shoulder) was put on the reserve/injured list on Thursday after being inactive for the first eight games.
The New England Patriots – including Tom Brady – are trying to focus on improving their offensive production (especially inside the red zone) as much as they are on bettering their defense.
Meanwhile, several upcoming opponents are putting together surprising stats that could make a big difference in how the games are decided.
The Tennessee Titans are 16th in the league in total defense (10th rushing, 19th passing) entering Week 9 and have only allowed an average of 253.0 yards in their last three games.
The Bengals enter the week having scored seven touchdowns in seven red zone trips on the road this season and lead the NFL in red zone defense overall, allowing just eight touchdowns on 24 different trips opponents have taken into that area of the field (33.3 percent).
Even the Browns defense is ranked 9th overall (6th rushing, 18th passing).
The reason the Steelers can’t rely on strength of schedule predictions is that on a week-to-week basis there is always a chance for an upset in the NFL. The Steelers have already seen the Chicago Bears and the Jacksonville Jaguars step up and hand them a loss. A win-loss record does not predict one-on-one matchups between opposing players or even entire teams.
The second half of the season is not a cruise for Pittsburgh and they’ve got to treat it seriously if they hope to find themselves contenders for the AFC crown – let alone a trip to the Super Bowl. The Steelers have some issues that need to be addressed as they come out of their bye week mid-season if they hope to be successful moving forward in the 2017 NFL regular season. But one of their biggest areas of focus must be on the opponent they face next, week-by-week, rather than what others predict for their team. If they lose that focus, it very well could be one of the season’s costliest mistakes.
