Steelers remaining schedule could be boom or bust
Six games. That’s all that remains of the 2017 regular season.
Six games. During those six games the Steelers will face two top 10 defenses (Baltimore and Cleveland). They will face one top 10 offense (New England). The flipside is that they will face the two worst offenses in the league and three of the bottom four (Cincinnati, Baltimore and Cleveland – Oh how the AFC North has fallen). They also get to face the worst defense in the league (New England – so there!).
The Steelers have 3 8:30 games, 2 4:30 games and 1 1:00 game. They play Christmas and New Year’s Eve. 4 of their last six games are at home, with one of their road games falling at their home away from home, Cincinnati.
Six games. Six games between the Steelers and the possibility of a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. How do they get there? What are their chances? Let’s take a look at the six remaining games on the Steelers schedule.
Green Bay Packers
Defense (#18): #18 Passing, #11 Rushing
Offense (#23): #23 Passing, #18 Rushing
The Green Bay Packers were at one point sitting at 4-1 and the world looked pretty rose-colored. Then Aaron Rogers went down with a broken collarbone and was lost for, probably, the season. Since then the Packers did manage to beat Bears (or maybe I should say John Fox, the Bears coach, managed to beat the Bears), but lost to the Saints, the Lions and then were absolutely crushed at home by the Ravens.
During the past 4 games, the Packers backup QB Brett Hundley has put up the following stats:
| Team | Att/Comp | YDS | Sacks | TD | INT | RT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 18/33 | 157 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 39.6 |
| Saints | 12/25 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 39.9 |
| Lions | 26/38 | 245 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 86.0 |
| Bears | 18/25 | 212 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 110.8 |
| Ravens | 21/36 | 239 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 43.6 |
Let’s just be frank. Nobody is afraid of Brett Hundley. Maybe the reason John Fox challenged that play and cost his team a TD was that he was confused by Hundley playing well against the Bears?
Against top passing defenses (Ravens, Vikings, Saints) Hundley has been sacked 11 times and thrown 7 INTs.
The Packers are no great shakes at running the ball. Their offensive line is subpar, and missing some starters. It won’t be surprising if the Packers fail to score a point for the second straight game.
The defense is a little better, especially against the run. Still, let’s look at the rushers that the Packers have faced to gain the rank of #11 rushing defense:
Ezekiel Elliott, Jerick McKinnon, Mark Ingram, Ameer Abdullah, Jordan Howard (twice), Chris Carson, Devonta Freeman and Joe Mixon. Ingram and Elliott both torched them for over 100 yards, and Freeman was close at 84. In other words, they have held second tier running backs down, but been exposed by better players.
Le’Veon Bell is not a second tier running back.
The pass defense is in the bottom half of the league, and the bottom line is this is a game the Steelers should win easily (Please being the chants of “Bad performances against bad teams” just so I can feel like you are paying attention).
Call this a win, and the Steelers move to 9-2.
@ Cincinnati Bengals
Defense (#12): #7 Passing, #27 Rushing
Offense (#32): #29 Passing, #32 Rushing
It’s a Monday night game, in Ohio and against a team that the Steelers have owned over the past several seasons. They have won 5 straight games against the Bengals, and 8 of the last 9. Go back to 2010 and they are 13-3 against them.
The last time they played it was the Le’Veon Bell show, and there is no reason to expect that they won’t be able to duplicate that effort again. The Bengals rush defense is woeful, sitting at #27 in the league. The pass defense is solid, but really, other than Ben Roethlisberger, the only top tier quarterback they have faced all year is Aaron Rogers. Rogers went 28/42 for 313 with 3 TDs and 1 INT. Ben was 14/24 for 224, 2 TDs and no INTs.
So (and this might become a theme), maybe that #7 ranking is a bit skewed. Unless you consider Joe Flacco, Deshaun Watson (in only his first start), DeShone Kizer, Tyrod Taylor, Jacoby Brissett, Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler above average QBs, then they really haven’t faced anyone. Yes, you can throw Marcus Mariota in there as well, but honestly, I but him somewhere in the second tier of QBs in the league, and he delivered 25/44 for 264 with 1 TD and 1 INT.
In other words, they haven’t played a lot of high caliber QBs, and that rating reflects it. When they do, they haven’t seemed nearly so good. Still, this is a division foe, who hates us, and does have a talented roster. If the Steelers try and cruise through this one, it might be tougher than they think.
Considering Ben is the Governor of Ohio, I can’t see the Steelers dropping this game. Steelers win moves them 10-2.
Baltimore Ravens
Defense (#6): #2 Passing, #26 Rushing
Offense (#31): #32 Passing, #14 Rushing
Remember how I said the Bengals and their #7 pass defense isn’t so scary when you look at how they’ve done against top tier QBs?
Enter the #2 passing defense of the Baltimore Ravens. Last time around, in Baltimore, Ben was 18/30 for 216 with 1 TD and 1 INT. Marcus Mariota put up similar numbers (19/28 for 218 with 2 TDs and 1 INT). Want to know how they did against other top level or just below top level QBs? Me too. As soon as they play one I’ll let you know.
Here is the string of worthies that they have had to defend against:
Andy Dalton, DeShone Kizer, Brett Hundley, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles (who torched them for 244 yards and 4 TDs), EJ Manuel (who was filling in for the injured Derek Carr), Mitch Trubisky and the Oh So Terrifying Matt Moore.
What defense wouldn’t be number 2 in passing playing against those guys?!?
Yes, you can insert the argument that the Steelers haven’t played a really good set of QBs either, and Matt Stafford (arguably the best QB they’ve faced thus far) did light them up for a lot of yardage. Still, I think Glennon is better than Trubisky, and Alex Smith is better than anyone in that list. The Steelers may not have played a much better group, but it’s fair to say it is still a better group.
The Ravens passing offense has become a joke. Last in the league, and they’ve only managed 11 TDs vs 11 INTs all year. The rushing game is better, but not by much. If they decide to do what they did in Baltimore, and power up the middle, they won’t have a lot of success.
Again, much like the Bengals game, this is a divisional foe, who knows the Steelers and doesn’t like them. Anything can happen in these games. You can make the claim that they might look ahead to the game that follows (New England), but how can they actually overlook the Ravens? There is risk here, but it sure does look like this should be yet another win for the Black and Gold, moving them to 11 – 2.
New England Patriots
Defense (#32): #32 Passing, #24 Rushing
Offense (#2): #1 Passing, #6 Rushing
This is the game that matters –no question about it. The big bad Patriots and all their swagger have to come in to Heinz field and prove that they are still the Patriots. The Steelers on the other hand would be well served to prove that they can beat the Patriots. Barring any freakish outcome in the Pat’s schedule, this is likely to be for all the marbles – #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs.
Can you imagine what they hype will be like for this game if they both come in at 11-2?
No matter what anyone says, the bottom line is this is NOT the same Patriots team that has been the bane of the Steelers existence. They are dead last in defense. LAST. They have the worst passing defense in the league. Their rushing defense is not that much better.
Yes, they have managed to hold the Brock Osweiler Bronco’s to 16 points, and a mess of a Raiders team to 8. The held a very up and down Falcons team to a single touchdown. Still, this is the same team that should have lost to the Jets if the refs (who, by the way, STINK) hadn’t decided to make up some BS to rip that game out of the Jets hands. They would have lost to the Buccaneers if they had a FG kicker who could kick. They also acted as the defense who was there for Deshaun Watson’s coming out party, as the rookie, in only his second game as a starter nearly beat them at home.
This isn’t the same Patriots team. Not even close. Brady is beating up on bad defenses, and their ranking may be better by the time they play the Steelers (what with games against such powerhouses as the Dolphins (twice) and the Bills upcoming). This is a game that the Steelers can win, and quite truthfully should win. It may be high scoring, it may be close, but the Steelers should win this game and take control of the AFC sitting at 12-2 with a full game lead over the Patriots (and the surprising Jaguars).
@ Houston Texans
Defense (#20): #26 Passing, #7 Rushing
Offense (#12): #17 Passing, #14 Rushing
About 3 weeks ago this was shaping up as another huge game on the schedule, ripe with playoff seeding implications.
Then DeShaun Watson blew out his knee.
Strangely, the Tom Savage led Texans are not nearly as intimidating. And rightly so, as the first two games after Watson’s injury the Texans managed 14 points against the Colts and a mere 7 against the Rams. However, against the Cardinals, Savage showed a little life and put up decent numbers as the Texans won for the first time since Watson went down.
The Texans do have weapons in DeAndre Hopkins and D’Onta Foreman, and the defense has taken a few steps back after losing J.J. Watt for the season, but is still a solid unit, even if their numbers are middle of the pack.
It’s not going to have the luster it looked like it was going to have, but this is still a possible hiccup for the Steelers. It’s a Christmas day game, and on the road. Top that off by having to follow up what is likely an emotional contest the week before. It could be a problem.
If Watson was still playing, I might lean towards the Texans, but without him – well, Tom is just not that damn Savage. Steelers win again to land at 13-2.
Cleveland Browns
Defense (#9): #15 Passing, #6 Rushing
Offense (#29): #28 Passing, #22 Rushing
The Browns defense is better than people think. It’s an improving unit, and it’s possible that number one pick Myles Garrett may finally get his chance to try and sack Ben Roethlisberger.
Or will he?
If the Steelers have the number one seed locked up, and this game doesn’t matter at all, well I would expect to see exactly what we saw last year in the season ender against Cleveland – the Landry Jones show. There is a potential problem with that scenario though and it comes in the form of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags are currently sitting at 7-3, just a mere game behind the Steelers. If the Steelers beat out the Patriots, and the Jags win out, then both the Jags and the Pats would be 13-3 to end the year. No problem on the Pats side, we’d have the tiebreaker with the head to head win.
But the Jags own that same tiebreaker with us. The Jags schedule is not fraught with peril for them down the stretch. At the Cardinals, the Colts, Seahawks and Texans at home, then at the 49ers and the Titans to close the year. It’s possible that Titans game could be for the division. The Titans already beat the Jags once, but they currently sit a game behind the Jags thanks to the Steelers win last Thursday.
That could mean that the Browns game will still mean something, and if it does then I would expect the Steelers to play their starters through most of the game, and end up winning it easily.
But if not, then I think there is a very good chance that with all backups playing, they drop this game. It all depends on the scenarios and how they play out. I just don’t see the Jags imploding at this point, the defense is just too good. Yes, Blake Bortles has the potential to send any season into a spiral of defeat, but it feels like this team is ready to take the South.
So, if that’s the way it plays out, then the Steelers end the season 14-2 and have the 1 seed.
Conclusion
I know there are members of Steelers Nation who still don’t believe in this team. I get it. Until they get the Patriots monkey off their back, there are always going to be naysayers who say “But they can’t beat the Patriots”.
If you read this far, and didn’t just read the title, I think there is a pretty fair case to be made for why they can and should beat the Pats this year. There are still a lot of games left to play though, and too many stumbles (like losing Marcus Gilbert to a four-game suspension) could trip them up. Still, I think there is good reason to be more than cautiously optimistic.
