Why history tells us losing the #1 seed is actually a good thing

The #1 seed: the position all teams strive for to put themselves in for the best possible situation to win the Super Bowl.

But how well do teams who secure the top seed do once the postseason begins? To answer our question let’s examine some statistics from when the NFL expanded the playoffs to 8 teams. (Otherwise, for a few years we would be looking at only #1 and #2 seeds.)

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Since 1970, when the playoffs expanded to 8 teams, there have been 47 Super Bowls. Here’s the number for each seed and how many times they have won:

  • #1: 26
  • #2: 10
  • #3: 3
  • #4: 5
  • #5: 1
  • #6: 2

One would think, with these numbers, that anyone but the top seed can’t have a chance of winning it all. Yet, the figures since 2000, where unrestricted free agency as we know it started to kick in, paint a different picture. The level of play began to equalize since 2000 and the 17 Super Bowls played following. The number of wins for each seed and how many times they have won show how parity reigns supreme in the NFL.

  • #1: 6
  • #2: 4
  • #3: 1
  • #4: 3
  • #5: 1
  • #6: 2

Before 2000, the #1 seed won the Super Bowl a total of 20 times, out of a possible 30 (66.67%). After 2000, the #1 seed has won a total of 6 times, out of a possible 17 (35.29%).

The top seed is still the favorite, but the probability dropped drastically since 2000.

So how does this affect the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Since the expanded playoffs, the Steelers have made it to the postseason 29 times. Out of 29 playoff appearances, they have only been the #1 seed six times winning the Super Bowl twice. They still do relatively well as the top seed in the playoffs, but they have only won the Super Bowl twice as that seed and both of those wins came in the 1970’s: back when they had a dynasty filled with Hall of Fame players and no free agency to pick away their roster.

Here’s how the Steelers fared depending on what seed they entered, and how that dictated their Super Bowl victories:

  • #1: 2
  • #2: 2
  • #3: 1
  • #4: 0
  • #5: 0
  • #6: 1

The Steelers have done just as well as the #1 seed as they have the #2 seed in regards to winning the Super Bowl. In addition, the two Super Bowls the Steelers lost, they were the #2 seed as well. Yes, the only times they have lost on the big stage was also as the #2 seed, but it seems like Pittsburgh really likes that #2 spot as their best odds to get to the Super Bowl.

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But how can Pittsburgh get past those pesky New England Patriots without home field advantage? Wouldn’t the Steelers rather be the #1 seed and have the Patriots the #2 seed, forcing New England to travel to Pittsburgh?

The Steelers and Patriots have faced off in the playoffs five times, with New England having a 4-1 record against Pittsburgh. Of those five times, there were two instances where the Steelers were #1 and the Patriots #2. The Patriots won both of those games and went on to win the Super Bowl themselves shortly after. The only time the Steelers beat the Patriots in the playoffs was in 1998… where they happened to be the #2 seed.

The last time the Steelers had a first-round bye and the #2 seed was in 2010-2011, where they lost the Super Bowl. But two years before that, they won the whole thing as the #2 seed. Pittsburgh has been to the Super Bowl four times out of the six times they have made the playoffs as the #2 seed.

It bears repeating but it seems like the Steelers really like that #2 spot.

It’s been almost 40 years since the Steelers have won the Super Bowl and simultaneously been the #1 seed. Obviously, it would be much more comfortable knowing that they have home field advantage throughout the entire playoffs, but history shows that Pittsburgh can and will do well as the #2 seed.

We have never seen a matchup in the playoffs where the Patriots were #1 and the Steelers were #2, so there is no history to go off of. The Steelers can only control what they can control, and if that means New England wins out and Pittsburgh is the #2 seed, there’s no reason to fret: history has the Steelers back.


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