Exploring scenarios where the Steelers could draft a quarterback in 2018
Not long ago I wrote an article explaining why it’s a good thing, especially for the Steelers, that there’s a deep quarterback class in this year’s NFL Draft. However, that article wasn’t because of the quarterbacks who might be available.
With Ben Roethlisberger under contract and committed to playing several more seasons, I took the approach that without needing another passer, a quality prospect playing another position should fall to the Steelers at pick 28 in this year’s draft. My logic is, would you rather take the six-best whatever when the first-best or second best something else is on the board? For each quarterback taken, that makes Pittsburgh’s odds of adding a better linebacker or safety that much better.
However, there’s another side of this equation which must be explored: what if those linebackers, safeties, et al aren’t thought to be worthy of a first-round pick? Should the Steelers reach here for need versus value, as they have (albeit rarely) in the past? (See: Jarvis Jones.)
I can’t believe I’m even saying this: what if this year’s quarterback class truly is as deep with talent as the draft experts would have you believe? Should the Steelers consider taking a player who may develop into Ben Roethlisberger’s heir and an eventual franchise QB?
There are a number of variables which must be factored into justifying this pick. First, the Steelers recent free agent signings, Jon Bostic and Morgan Burnett, are both veterans capable of being full-time starters at the two positions thought to be of the greatest need for the team. Granted they aren’t long-term solutions, but in the short-term, their addition to the roster could help the organization plan for the future.
Traditionally, in order to pick a top flight QB in the draft, a team would need a very high draft pick to get one. In order to have that pick, a team would have to have a very poor season the previous year, or mortgage their future by trading away several other picks over the course of several draft years to put themselves in a position where they may feel they could get “their guy”.
How that translates to the Steelers is as follows: with Roethlisberger appearing to have at least three years left to play, would the team prefer to add a linebacker or safety with their top pick, and risk being mediocre for however long it takes to rebuild with a new signal caller? Or will they fall into a Green Bay Packers situation, where a can’t miss QB like Aaron Rodgers falls into the latter part of the first round?
I’ve often advocated against creating that same Brett Favre-Aaron Rodgers situation with Big Ben, as I wouldn’t want to force the Steelers all-time leader in nearly every major passing category out of town as Favre was in Wisconsin. However, I’m also not sold on suffering the stigma that goes through the post-Roethlisberger era of losing to the Ravens, Bengals, and/or Browns.
Maybe the team should start planning for that inevitable future of life without Ben. A quarterback taken in this year’s first round would be under contract for four years with an option to lock them down for a fifth. That’s one or two years beyond Big Ben to see what you have, and further plan if this quarterback is the future, or to change gears and get another one.
If you wait, perhaps the wait won’t be worth it. Consider six quarterbacks appear to be pro starters in this year’s draft class: Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph are all being touted as the next big thing.
Those six are three, four, five, or even six more than what has been available in previous drafts. Fans tease me about defending Landry Jones, but the fourth-round pick in the 2013 draft is arguably the best passer to have come out of that class. E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, Mike Glennon, Matt Barkley, and Ryan Nassib are among the names who never panned out from Jones’ class.
If you think Jones isn’t “great”, I can get on board with knowing he’s a backup quarterback at the NFL level who is at leastcapable of running an offense. I don’t believe he’s a full-time starter or even Ben’s successor: which furthers the idea that a first round pick might be necessary to get that player. If you want someone that’s more than Jones as a player, then you can see why this might be the year to make a sneaky “best available” snag of a quarterback when the Steelers are on the clock.
After all, they’ve never been beneath taking talent over need, a trait seen when, despite having a deep wide receiver room, they selected WR JuJu Smith-Schuster last year.
The situation is further validated by drafts which followed. In 2014, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater were at the top of their class, while Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo slipped into the second round.
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota went first and second in 2015, while Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went similarly in the 2016 draft. Paxton Lynch followed later in that draft, while in 2015, no one else was selected after Winston and Mariota until the third round. Last year, Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson all went in the first round, further illustrating that a first-round pick doesn’t guarantee success at the quarterback position, but it helps increase the probability of such.
There are, of course, exceptions to the rule such as Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, but they are simply that: exceptions. Steelers fans wouldn’t expect to find another Antonio Brown late in the draft, so having similar expectations for a position in far greater demand is a pipedream.
And I think we can all agree on one more thing: as long as Roethlisberger is playing, and healthy, the Steelers will be a contender picking late in the draft over the next several years. In order to get Roethlisberger’s successor, the Steelers may need to pull the trigger if they feel they like what they see in this year’s draft. Otherwise, there may not be the number of top prospects available in the following years to acquire one without tanking during the regular season or giving away picks needed to build a team around a new quarterback, to get a quarterback.
That’s where I can empathize with the Steelers if they did the unthinkable, at least to us fans (because the experts keep mocking Rudolph and Jackson to the team) and select a new backup for Ben.
Trust me, there are other positions I feel are better fits rather than selecting a quarterback, who may not even get a helmet on Sundays or leave the bench for several seasons. However, is that any different than taking a linebacker or safety who may do the same?
And what of that crystal ball into the future? Can we count on Landry Jones or Josh Dobbs to be Big Ben’s heirs? Can we count on Ben to be healthy and play a full season over the next three or more?
These are all hypothetical questions which the Steelers are usually great at ensuring ahead of time. They had the foresight to draft Cam Heyward before a defensive end was a necessity, and have had similar success with other past picks when evaluating talent over need.
That’s why I feel that we should all keep an open mind about Pittsburgh picking a quarterback this year.
And yes, that means even myself: someone who has been vehemently against taking one can even see it may be necessary to start thinking this way to make sure the Steelers maintain their “standard”.
