Zac Celedonia’s 2018 Steelers 7-Round Mock Draft
A wise man once said, “Ain’t no party like a mock draft party.”
Friends, colleagues, brothers, it’s draft week. At long last after months of speculation and predictions, the 2018 NFL draft is but days away. You can taste the anticipation in the air surrounding the city of Pittsburgh. Round one will be here soon enough but in the meantime, I bring to you my one and only 7-round mock draft for our Pittsburgh Steelers.
Some people like to poke fun at the idea of someone spending their valuable time doing a mock draft, largely because it is 100% speculative and often very wrong. However, if you go back and look at some popular mocks in recent years, Bud Dupree (2015) Artie Burns (2016) and T.J. Watt (2017) were all heavily mocked to Pittsburgh in weeks leading up to draft day.
So say what you want about the people who spend their time typing up these bad boys but sometimes us blind squirrels find our nuts. I used Fanspeak’s draft simulator with Matt Miller‘s Big Board to project prospect value. The accuracy of these picks may vary.
Round 1 Pick 28: Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
Stop me if you’ve heard this before; Rashaan Evans is coming to Pittsburgh. Yes, it’s the boring pick nowadays but it’s also the right pick. I personally have seen Evans mocked to the Steelers all over the place(websites, podcasts, etc.) and the more I see it, the more I believe he will, in fact, be the pick at 28. Not simply because analysts and “experts” say so, but because Evans is exactly what the doctor is ordering for the Steelers.
Pittsburgh needs an athletic piece at the linebacker position to at least somewhat fill the obvious void left by Ryan Shazier. Shazier was playing at an all-pro level at the time of his injury so I’m not expecting that out of Evans immediately. But the young Bama linebacker would be an immediate upgrade and contributor in a position room featuring Vince Williams and Jon Bostic as the current top dogs.
Evans flashes rare explosion on tape both in the run and pass game and plays with a nastiness to him that would fit right in the steel city. When he comes up to make a tackle, he goes through the ball carrier and lets them know about it. You’ll also notice his knack for rushing the passer upon watching his film. Alabama got very creative with Evans and would often move him and send him off the edge, and it proved effective. That sounds a lot like the way Pittsburgh likes to deploy their linebackers. He wasn’t asked to do much man to man coverage from what I saw on tape, but he knows what he’s doing in space. And maybe, more importantly, is not a liability out there in coverage like Tyler Matakevich for instance.
One thing working against Evans and his draft stock is his lack of a 40-yard dash time. The star linebacker never ran the event at the NFL scouting combine and opted to skip it at his pro day in Alabama. Honestly, I could care less about this for Evans. If you watch his tape, he looks plenty fast and covers ground very quickly sideline to sideline. I’m not saying he’s out there running 4.3’s but I would venture to say he looks like a solid 4.5 guy on tape. Unfortunately for Evans, I’m not someone who’s making any actual draft day decisions. NFL teams have proven that they care about those testing numbers very much so.
Whether you think that’s beneficial to a team’s success or not is up to you. I expect Evan’s lack of a 40 time to push him down the board. The only question is, will the Steelers fixate on that 40 time or bank on the kid’s tape? Hopefully, for our sake, they chose the latter.
Round 2 Pick 60: Justin Reid, S, Stanford
I’ll probably catch some heat for this pick because the chances of Reid falling this far in the draft are slim to none.
But before we all go counting our “Justin Reid is a first round lock” eggs, let’s make sure they hatch.
The 2016 draft featured two safety prospects in particular that seemed to capture the hearts of the draft community. Both Boise State’s Darian Thompson and Ohio State’s Vonn Bell were largely viewed as a consensus first or early second round picks, especially the ball-hawking Thompson. Meanwhile, fast forward to the 2016 draft and spoiler alert; both players weren’t off the board until mid to late day 2!
The safety position is valued in so many different ways all across the league and is probably the hardest position to accurately mock to teams. That’s exactly why I didn’t hesitate to take Reid in the draft simulator because as outrageous as it seems right now, there is a chance he will be there on day 2.
Justin Reid has received a lot of first round buzz, but don’t be totally shocked if he slides to the second round and maybe even to pick 60 overall. Pittsburgh has shown obvious interest in Reid after making him one of their 3o official draft visitors. If selected, Reid would make his impact sooner rather than later much like Rashaan Evans before him(in this particular scenario). The safety position in Pittsburgh has it’s two starters in Morgan Burnett and Sean Davis, but you really almost need three guys in today’s NFL.
Justin Reid is similar to both Burnett and Davis given the fact he can play both safety spots and can be used like a Swiss Army defensive back. The Steelers could start Burnett and Davis with Reid rotating in as the deep safety or as a dime backer (defensive back/linebacker hybrid). Or Burnett/Davis could end up being the rotational piece.
Head coach Mike Tomlin recently said that Burnett would open up camp at free safety, but that “could change.” My point is that if Pittsburgh can add Justin Reid they will have successfully acquired another defensive upgrade who can contribute on the field right away.
Round 3 Pick 92: James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
The Steelers have turned selecting a wide receiver in the mid rounds of any given draft into an art form. And with Martavis Bryant likely hitting the open market after the season, and Eli Rogers still returning from ACL surgery, wide receiver is a real low-key need in Pittsburgh. Oklahoma State’s deep threat specialist, James Washington, can be the next masterpiece.
Washington comes from a downfield passing attack, where he has been seeing the field since freshman year. His role only increased with each passing season.Washington turned his high amount of targets into a very successful NCAA career averaging 19.8 yards per catch and scoring 40 touchdowns over 4 years!
As a senior, he was named first-team all conference and a finalist for the Fred Biletnikoff award, which is given to the nation’s top wideout. Washington terrorized opposing teams with the power to take the top off the defense at any given moment. So how is one of the world’s best college receivers going to slide all the way to the bottom of the third round? Two words: testing numbers.
Despite the fact that Washington is an all-world field stretcher, his combine numbers were average at best. 4.54 in the 40-yard dash is a fine time, but it’s nothing special. 120 inches in the broad is good, not great. and 14 reps on the bench is honestly kind of low for a stockier body type like Washington’s. But you can’t take away what the kid has shown on tape and what he has shown is a consistent ability to make plays and score points.
Juju Smith-Schuster didn’t put up great testing numbers either, but that didn’t stop him from being a future Steelers draft pick, thank goodness. Like Juju, I can see that James Washington has “game speed.” Remember, Smith-Schuster proved to be an effective weapon for Big Ben Roethlisberger down the field even with poor combine testing.
I believe James Washington can offer the same type of splash. James Washington doesn’t have the sexy track numbers but his speed and ability to get open is evident on film, where you’ll often find him behind the defense. As long as the Steelers don’t care about his mediocre testing numbers, and they didn’t care about Juju’s, then the Oklahoma State star could and should be the pick here in the third round.
Round 5 Pick 148: Fred Warner, LB, BYU
We have a double-dipper people, this is not a drill.
Regardless of how realistic you feel my mock has been thus far, Pittsburgh picking two linebackers is something I feel will almost certainly happen. No one could have seen the horrific injury to Ryan Shazier coming, but the depth behind him was literally nonexistent at times. The Steelers cannot allow themselves to get caught in such a position again.
Fred Warner is an exciting athlete who can offer rare traits at the second level of the defense. Although Warner has been seeing the field since freshman year at BYU, he’s still pretty raw in my opinion. But he can be sticky in coverage, and that alone can be beneficial to any defense in today’s game.
Under the right tutelage, Warner could develop his game and offer more. If the Steelers drafted him, he wouldn’t be thrust into any starting role and I think that’s best for him at this time. I would expect Warner to earn his stripes on special teams, and occasionally rotate in the starting defense on passing downs. If you’re getting that at this point in the draft, I would call that a win.
Round 5 pick 165: Durham Smythe, TE, Notre Dame
We’re all avid Vance McDonald lovers here at Steel City Underground, but that doesn’t mean the Steelers can’t go this way come draft day.
Don’t get me wrong; picking a tight end in the early rounds would surprise me, but not this late. Vance McDonald proved last season that he can be a starting caliber and number one tight end, if healthy. Jessie James offers solid depth but in reality, he’s just a guy. That leaves you with Xavier Grimble at the bottom of the depth chart, who could be released at any given moment and most fans wouldn’t even notice for months.
Smythe isn’t a flashy pick at all. As a matter of fact, he’s a rather boring prospect, but he’s a damn good blocker. Pittsburgh has shown us time and time again that they truly do value blocking tight ends in the draft. Matt Spaeth, Rob Blanchflower, and David Paulsen are all prime examples of players who offered little to nothing in the passing game but heard their phones ring on draft day courtesy of Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin. Smythe is meant to be a Steeler.
Round 7 Pick 220: Damon Webb, S, Ohio State
Your eyes do not deceive you, I’m doubling down on the double dip. Not only have the Steelers switched it up with fresh bodies at linebacker, they can now also say they have reloaded the once abysmal safety spot. With the additions of Morgan Burnett, Justin Reid, and now Damon Webb, the days of Mike Mitchell, Will Allen, and Shamarko Thomas seem like distant (and bad) memory.
Webb offers some versatility on the back end because he actually started his career at Ohio State playing cornerback, and then moved to safety before the start of his junior season. Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin have both shown they like defensive backs who can wear multiple hats.
2017 was by far Webb’s best season as he racked up 5 interceptions and 3 passes defensed. Webb would be a steal this late in the draft. The Steelers love for Ohio State players can be traced all the way back to 2006 where they took Santonio Holmes in the first round. Obviously, Cam Heyward and Ryan Shazier are the headliners, and Damon Webb could be next.
Round 7 Pick 246: Ito Smith, RB, Southern Miss
A late round flyer here, I have the Steelers selecting the explosive scatback, Ito Smith. Smith had a highly decorated college career at Southern Mississippi, leading the charge on offense for the past 3 years where he scored at least 10 touchdowns in each season.
Smith also doubles as a dangerous receiver out of the backfield, and an experienced punt/kick returner who can bust a long one at any moment.
Pittsburgh solves their return man issues and adds a possible contributor on offense with their final pick all in one.
Conclusion
There you have it my friends: my one and only final mock draft for the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers! I totally and completely expect every pick I made to be 100% accurate. But if by some crazy chance I get one or two wrong, I hope you all won’t be too upset with me.
All jokes aside, I do realize that this particular mock is full of wishful thinking and the Steelers getting players I want. But every single year we see players go higher and lower than “everybody thinks.” So is late second round too late for Justin Reid? Is late third round too late for James Washington? It’s possible, but don’t be so sure.
