As teams across the NFL enter Week 8, they’re also entering the second half of the regular season in the last week of October. Strength of schedule predictions from preseason analysis are thrown out the window; they can be skewed based on the various methods used to forecast outcomes, which I’ve written about in the past. With a clearer picture of how rookies have fit into their relative squads, veterans who are over- or under-performing, critical injuries, and divisional rivalries, reanalyzing the strength of schedule across the league becomes a bit more precise – but is no guarantee to be an accurate assessment. Depending on the source, the Pittsburgh Steelers average out to a moderate schedule of play moving forward in the season which means that not one game is a gimme; the Steelers will need to be solid in all aspects (offense, defense, and special teams) to be successful through the remainder of the regular season.

Fantasy Index Rankings

The experts over at FantasyIndex.com released their updated (as of Oct. 15, 2018) strength of schedule based on passing offense and rushing offense and it may surprise some that the Steelers aren’t close to the top (easiest). Others would look at how the Steelers opened the 2018 season and simply nod in agreement. The team listed as having the easiest schedule in passing was the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers’ opponent in Week 8. The team at the top in rushing was the Los Angeles Chargers.

Fantasy Index’s method for determining their rankings was to take the per-game numbers (rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, passing yards, and passing touchdowns), using a standard score of six points for touchdowns and one point for every 10 yards. Utilizing those statistics, the Browns, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals all projected to play the easiest schedules with the New York Giants also in the top four in passing production.

That’s three AFC North teams and with the division being so close, the Steelers can’t feel good about playing those odds. Pittsburgh was ranked as the fifth-most difficult schedule in the same category, with just the Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts listed as having a more difficult schedule.

The Steelers ranked higher in rushing. According to the same system of prediction, the Steelers were ranked with the seventh-easiest schedule when it comes to rushing production. Unfortunately, two teams ahead of them – the Chargers and Ravens – are teams they will face in the second half of the season.

Upcoming Opponents	Week	Opp. Record W/L/T (as of Wk 7)
vs Browns	8	2-4-1
at Ravens	9	4-3-0
vs Panthers	10	4-2-0
at Jaguars	11	3-4-0
at Broncos	12	3-4-0
vs Chargers	13	5-2-0
at Raiders	14	1-5-0
vs Patriots	15	5-2-0
at Saints	16	5-1-0
vs Bengals	17	4-3-0

Fantasy Pros Rankings

The experts at FantasyPros.com utilize a system that “displays the relative ease or difficulty of their matchups…SOS measured by calculating the fantasy points allowed by each team’s opponents” to determine easiest versus most-difficult schedules. A No. 1 rank is equal to the easiest schedule. For Weeks 8-16, Fantasy Pros has AFC North teams in the No. 1 and No. 2 position overall; the Ravens and Browns respectively. The Steelers are ranked No. 20 overall.

Baltimore took the No. 1 spot for quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver; No. 4 for running back. Conversely, the Browns took the No. 2 spot for quarterback and tight end while earning a 6th place ranking for rushing and tenth place for wide receivers. Rounding out the AFC North, the Bengals were ranked No. 12 overall, taking the No. 4 spot for wide receivers. The Steelers’ numbers are as follows: QB rank – 20, RB – rank 17, WR – rank 13, TE – rank 23.

To round out the numbers on the teams that the Steelers will face, beyond their divisional rivals, the team with the easiest overall strength of schedule per FantasyPros is the Broncos. The Saints are next with the Panthers, Raiders, Chargers, Jaguars, and Patriots (in that order) all coming in with easier schedules than the Steelers.

The big picture

Strength of schedule is a prediction tool. It means very little beyond potential outcomes and positional performances, especially in regards to fantasy football as opposed to what actually occurs on the field. That isn’t to say that the SOS is worthless, just that – like any tool – it has a specific job and purpose but can’t gauge the big picture that is any single NFL game let alone the remainder of the regular season.

Based on statistics, however, strength of schedule does bring focus to trends. Right now the Steelers are trending in the right direction, but they’re coming off of the bye in Week 7. Historically, Pittsburgh has not been sharp in their post-bye performance and they can’t allow the Browns a win at Heinz Field if they hope to have the necessary momentum to successfully navigate the remainder of their schedule.

One thing that wasn’t as clear was the performance of individual defenses. The Steelers defense is trending up, but they need to build off of their past two games and ask individuals for better performances if they hope to buck the trends.

Likewise, the Steelers can’t lose track of the divisional race in the AFC North. The division is a lot more competitive in 2018 than anticipated making each and every game a much-needed win.