AFC North: How Week 15’s results changed the division title race

One game for each team in Week 15 of the 2018 NFL regular season. Just one game that could mean a team becomes a division champion or enters the postseason, or challenges for the conference championship. That’s how close things can be in the National Football League. With the Pittsburgh Steelers beating the New England Patriots, the Baltimore Ravens now have more on the line in the final two weeks of the regular season. For the Cleveland Browns, there is a teeny chance at making the playoffs. And for the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s time to see who they might keep around in 2019. Yes, the results of Week 15 games changed the division title race.

While Pittsburgh’s offense rode rookie running back Jaylen Samuels in his second NFL start to the tune of 142 yards (19 carries; two passes for 30 yards including a critical 20-yard third-down conversion), their defense turned T.J. Watt loose in pressure and watched veterans Joe Haden and Morgan Burnett make critical plays that gave the Steelers the win. Chris Boswell, who’d missed a field goal earlier in the game, drilled a 48-yarder to put the Steelers up 17-10 and the defense did the rest. Pittsburgh moved to 8-5-1 on the season and regained some air in their sails as they hope for a playoff bid. The win also helped Pittsburgh hold a half-game lead over Baltimore (8-6) with just two weeks left in the regular season.

In Baltimore, rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson had his way with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rushing for 95 yards and tossing for another 131. He finished the day with 14-of-23 passes completed. Since taking over for injured Joe Flacco, the Ravens’ only loss has come in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bucs (5-9) couldn’t figure out how to stop Jackson or the Ravens’ rushing game that put together 242 yards on 49 carries. That number made the Ravens the first team since the Steelers (1976) to rush for at least 190 yards in five straight games.

In order to grab the AFC North title, the Ravens will either need to win-out or finish with one more win than the Steelers in the final two games. The Steelers face the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals next on the schedule. The only scenario that allows Baltimore to win the division without getting wins in Week 16 and 17 is if Pittsburgh loses-out, which could happen, but looks unlikely.

The AFC Wild Card race now appears to be down to three teams: the Ravens, the Tennessee Titans, and the Indianapolis Colts. The Browns, Bengals, and Dolphins are all longshots to make a push in the final two weeks. If the Steelers defeat the Saints and Bengals, the Ravens would hold the sixth seed but only if they are tied with the Titans or if the Colts finish 9-7 or 10-6. Yes, it’s that complicated.

And the Ravens are looking at a surging Los Angeles Chargers team in Week 16. If Baltimore can’t beat the “Bolts”, they have to watch the Colts and Titans over the next two weeks and hope that they have as good a win-loss record as the better of those two teams. Essentially, the Chargers game is a must-win for Baltimore unless they want to depend on other teams to push them into a wild-card spot.

Cincinnati was the beneficiary of a great game by Joe Mixon, who rushed for 129 yards and two touchdowns. Dropping five straight previously, the Bengals won 30-16 over the Oakland Raiders but are now 6-8 on the season. The win was the Bengals’ first since October.

Cleveland can’t win the division. The Steelers’ win on Sunday slammed that door shut due to the fact that Pittsburgh won the head-to-head tiebreaker against them. Even if the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns were to all finish with records of 8-7-1, Pittsburgh owns the tiebreakers.

The Browns are 6-7-1 thanks to a Saturday win over the Denver Broncos, 17-16. The win all but eliminated the Broncos from contention for the postseason. Mayfield, who struggled throughout the game, completed 18-of-31 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns (to one interception). He was able to rally the Browns to a come-from-behind victory thanks to a two-yard game-winning pass to Antonio Callaway set up by a T.J. Carrie interception of Denver quarterback Case Keenum.

Per ESPN Stats and Info, the Browns could sneak into the playoffs in the event of a three-way tie between them, the Colts and Titans at 8-7-1. It would require Cleveland beat Cincinnati and Baltimore to finish at 8-7-1, or Baltimore loses-out to finish 8-8, or the Dolphins lose one-of-two games to finish 8-8, or the Colts and Titans both lose Week 16 and tie their head-to-head meeting in Week 17 (to finish 8-7-1). Cleveland would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indianapolis for a wild-card spot based on record vs. common opponents (Browns 3-2, Colts 2-3).

All those numbers are being crunched in someone’s calculator. And the scenarios will continue to be talked about until the end of the regular season in two weeks truly comes to an end. In the end, though, if Pittsburgh does to the Saints and Bengals what it did (or do better) to the Patriots, they truly dictated the race for the divisional title with Sunday’s win. And everyone else in the AFC North is truly on the outside looking in.