Bold Steelers predictions on the road against the Saints
You have to go all the way back to the third week of the 2016 NFL preseason to talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints in a head-to-head meeting. Ben Roethlisberger saw his first preseason action and torched the Saints for 148 yards and two touchdown passes before taking the rest of the game off. The Steelers won, 24-17. Again, it was the preseason. Things are expected to go much differently in Week 16 of the 2018 regular season with both teams looking for wins in the final two weeks and postseason play. Before we kick off the bold predictions on how the Steelers will do on the road in New Orleans, let’s look at how close our predictions for Week 15 (vs the New England Patriots) went.
Week 15 prediction recap
- The Steelers limit Gronk’s playmaking ability and hold him under 100 yards receiving: This actually happened. Pittsburgh’s defense was able to contain Rob Gronkowski to just two catches on five targets for 21 yards. Even bigger, they kept the big tight end out of the end zone.
- The Steelers shock the Patriots with a win: I warned that winter was coming and that the chill would hit at Heinz Field. The Steelers didn’t ice the Patriots, but they put Tom Brady on it when they were able to make a great defensive stand in the final seconds of the game for the win.
- Ridley gets Steelers over the 100-yard rushing mark in a single game since Conner’s injury: Stevan Ridley did get a little redemption over the team he felt slighted him when he was injured by rushing for 12 yards on three carries (including one that got the Steelers offense free from being pinned deep against their own end zone. So he did “help”, but Jaylen Samuels was asked to carry the rushing load. Samuels carried the ball 19 times for 142 yards, putting the Steelers over the 100-yard rushing mark in a single-game since James Conner was injured.
- The Steelers defense sacks Brady at least twice: The defense was very close to making this come true. Brady got sacked once for a loss of seven yards (T.J. Watt), but he was hit and pressured several times. Watt got three QB hits, while Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt earned two apiece.
- The offensive line helps the Steelers grab at least 100 yards rushing and at least 300 yards passing: The Steelers’ offensive front did a nice job of adjusting to early pressure from the Patriots defense. They were able to help their rushers gain 100 yards on the ground and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 235 yards on 22-of-34 attempted passes for two touchdowns. Had Big Ben not thrown two interceptions, this may have come 100 percent true.
- The Steelers’ offensive line allows one or fewer sacks: This did not come true mainly due to the fact that early on New England seemed intent on sending their entire defense at Roethlisberger. Still, they limited the number of sacks to two and, again, they adjusted to keep their play-caller in good shape for the majority of the game.
- Brown and Smith-Schuster team up to score two touchdowns for the Steelers: While Antonio Brown did, indeed, find the end zone, JuJu Smith-Schuster had a solid outing, recording as many catches (4) as Brown for 40 yards to Brown’s 49. You play what the defense gives you, and that meant that Roethlisberger was required to spread the ball around a bit more and get it out quicker.
- James gets on his horse and grabs a minimum of 30 receiving yards and a touchdown: Steelers fans all wanted tight end Jesse James to get redemption for the horrible call that eliminated his touchdown catch when the Steelers last faced the Patriots. James did get one key catch for nine yards that moved the chains, but it was his counterpart – Vance McDonald – who was able to get into the end zone for a touchdown after making two receptions for 13 yards. The good news was that #JesseCaughtIt when it was thrown to him. That’s at least a little redemptive.
The Showdown
New Orleans enters Sunday’s contest with Pittsburgh at home ranked seventh in the league in total offense, averaging 385.9 yards per game. The Saints are ranked eighth in rushing (127.4 yards per game) after they were able to put up 155 yards on the ground in their last game. The Saints rank 11th overall in total defense (and first against the run). They rank second in the NFL in scoring (32.8 points per game) and are tied for seventh in opponent points allowed per game (20.9).
Pittsburgh ranks fourth overall in offense and is ranked 30th in rushing (93.9 points per game) and third in passing (311.9 points per game). Defensively, the Steelers rank ninth overall (6th versus the run; 13th against the pass).
The Brees-Roethlisberger duel will be an interesting one to watch. With both quarterbacks having shown up in big ways in big games this season, it won’t be surprising to see the duo go gunslinger. They’re both very intelligent veterans who’ve seen everything opposing defenses can throw at them and both can pull the trigger in dangerous situations.
Prediction: Roethlisberger finishes the game with a better QB rating than Brees.
The Week 16 predictions
In the two games that the Saints have lost (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Week 1; Dallas Cowboys, Week 13), Drew Brees couldn’t have been more different. Against the Bucs, Brees threw for 439 yards on 37 completions and three touchdowns. Against the Cowboys, Brees threw for 127 yards on 18 completions and one touchdown to one interception. So, how did those two teams beat the Saints?
First, both teams took advantage of turnovers and pressure. The Buccaneers were able to sack Brees once for a loss of seven yards and recovered two fumbles (one by Mike Gillislee, another by Michael Thomas). The Cowboys grabbed an interception, sacked Brees twice for a loss of 16 yards, and recovered two-of-three fumbles (Brees, Kamara, and Dan Arnold).
As for the Saints’ offensive front… Derek Newton, signed just two weeks ago, was released due to a torn patellar tendon on Thursday. Meanwhile, Michael Ola was placed on injured/reserved. Veteran offensive lineman Cornelius Lucas (last with the Los Angeles Rams) was added in place of Newton. With the Saints listing offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod (hamstring) “DNP” on Wednesday and Thursday, center Max Unger (concussion) “limited” on Thursday (“DNP” on Wed.), offensive guard Andrus Peat (shoulder) “limited” both days, offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk (shoulder) “limited” both days, and tackle Terron Armstead (pectoral/knee) “limited” both days, Brees could potentially be standing behind a very piecemeal offensive line.
Prediction 1: The Steelers defense dials up pressure and sacks Brees at least twice.
So, the recipe for the Steelers should include creating chaos to force mistakes that turn the game in their favor. Pittsburgh hasn’t been a turnover machine this season, but it’s December and the AFC North title is on the line. It starts with the Pittsburgh defensive front and that will give the backfield opportunities in the open field.
Prediction 2: The Steelers grab at least one interception and grab at least one other turnover.
Alvin Kamara is a dangerous running back. He is a dual-threat out of the offensive backfield. In games the Saints have won, Kamara has 795 yards on the ground for 1o touchdowns. In games the Saints have lost, his numbers fall to 65 yards and two touchdowns. Stopping the run game will be key if the Steelers hope to force the Saints offense to be one-dimensional. The Steelers’ run defense ranks sixth in the league, but they’ve shown flashes this season of being capable of containing the opposing rushing game. As for preventing Kamara from being that dual-threat, the Steelers’ 13th-ranked pass defense should factor in. And once again, the wounded Saints offensive line should factor in here, too.
Prediction: The Steelers limit Kamara to less than 50 yards rushing and 30 yards in receiving.
Other Steelers predictions
Pittsburgh may not get James Conner back into the lineup this week, but he’s closer to returning. That means that Jaylen Samuels will once again be asked to handle the majority of the rushing duties. With the Saints being extremely stingy against the run, it helps that Roethlisberger has faith in Samuels in other areas as well.
“One of the first things we noticed about him is he has really good hands. Soft hands,” said Roethlisberger. “You can throw it all over the place and he can make plays. I think he showed that this week, that we can put him out there and do some things with him that we are just scratching the surface with… I thought he showed good patience. I thought when it was there he hit it hard. He protected the ball. Those are things you want from a guy that isn’t used to carrying it as much as he is going to have to or did.”
Prediction: Samuels records a higher reception yards total than any Steelers player not named Antonio Brown or JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Prediction: The Steelers get the tight ends involved in the red zone with Jesse James or Vance McDonald scoring a touchdown.
Prediction: Brown and Smith-Schuster combine for over 200 yards receiving.
