Earlier this week, we looked at how NFL Week 15 affected the playoff race in the AFC North, but to get a clear picture across the league, it’s important to look beyond one conference and one division. The number-crunchers have put together how each team can or can not clinch their divisions, get into the conference race and the myriad of teams that could earn wild-card spots depending on the results of the final two weeks of the 2018 NFL regular season. Here is our condensed outlook.

The Week 16 playoff picture looks like this:

AFC Divisional Leaders – NFC Divisional Leaders

1	Kansas City Chiefs	11-3	New Orleans Saints	12-2
2	Houston Texans	10-4	Los Angeles Rams	11-3
3	New England Patriots	9-5	Chicago Bears	10-4
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	8-5-1	Dallas Cowboys	8-6

AFC Wild Card – NFC Wild Card

5	Los Angeles Chargers	11-3	Seattle Seahawks	8-6
6	Baltimore Ravens	8-6	Minnesota Vikings	7-6-1

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Looking at the AFC

The only teams in the AFC that have already clinched a playoff berth are the Kansas City Chiefs (9-2 in conference play) and Los Angeles Chargers (8-2 in conference play). Although they have the two best records (currently) in the AFC, the Chiefs and Chargers are tied for first place in their division. The Chiefs, with a better divisional record, have a slight edge, but if the Chargers win and the Chiefs lose in Week 16, the Chargers will take the top spot. If both teams win or lose, the Chiefs will retain the lead.

Every other team in the conference still need to make things happen in the final two weeks to secure their spots as champs of their divisions. The Houston Texans need one win in that time period to take the AFC South division; their next opponents are the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. The New England Patriots could have clinched the AFC East with a win over the Miami Dolphins, but lost and then lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which means they need one more win to clinch their division as well. The Patriots have the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets as opponents during that time.

The Steelers and Ravens are in the biggest divisional battle for the AFC North title. If the Steelers were to lose in Week and the Ravens beat the Chargers on the road, Baltimore would move into first place in the division, but if Baltimore loses (and the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans both win), the Week 17 game between the Colts and Titans will decide the No. 2 wild-card spot. In order to grab the AFC North title, the Ravens will either need to win-out or finish with one more win than the Steelers in the final two games. The Steelers face the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals next on the schedule. The only scenario that allows Baltimore to win the division without getting wins in Week 16 and 17 is if Pittsburgh loses-out, which could happen, but looks unlikely.

AFC teams in the hunt

The Colts (8-6), Titans (8-6), Dolphins (7-7) and Cleveland Browns (6-7-1) have crazy scenarios that could not only help them remain in the hunt for wild-card spots but help determine the final playoff seeding in the conference. The Browns would need to win both Week 16 (Cincinnati Bengals) and Week 17 (Ravens) and have the Colts and Titans end their head-to-head game as a tie. They also need the Ravens to lose to the Chargers. If that happens, Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Tennessee would finish the season with 8-7-1 records (and the Browns have the tie-breaker edge). But, the Browns would need the Dolphins to split its games or lose both.

The NFL’s tie-breaking procedures are complex, so if you’re interested, go to the NFL Playoff Picture page for the full breakdown.

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Looking at the NFC

Three teams in the NFC have already clinched their division and a spot in the playoffs: the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams, and Chicago Bears.

That leaves the Dallas Cowboys (currently No. 4) looking for a rebound after getting shut out by the Colts in Week 15. Dallas has a one-game lead over the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles. They will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants in the next two weeks. They’ll clinch the NFC East if they get a win against the Bucs. If they lose, and both the Eagles and Redskins win, their season finale against the Giants will be a win-or-go-home game (the Redskins and Eagles play each other in Week 17).

The Seattle Seahawks lost last week but remain in the lead for the top wild-card spot in the NFC. They face the Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals in the final two weeks. The Minnesota Vikings are also holding on tight to that second wild-card spot and will face the Detroit Lions and Bears in their final two weeks.

NFC teams in the hunt

Obviously, the Redskins and Eagles would like to bump one of those teams out of those spots. If the Redskins or Eagles win-out and the Vikings lose a game in the final two games, the team with the most wins would take the No. 2 wild-card spot. Seattle would clinch a wild-card spot with one win in their last two games, making it harder for someone to topple them from the wild-card round.

The only way the Carolina Panthers can grab a wild-card spot requires a very complex set of circumstances. They need to win their final two games and have the Vikings lose their final two games. Try to keep up, because this is interesting. The Panthers could grab a spot in the playoffs if the following happens…

• The Panthers lose to the Falcons
• The Vikings beat the Lions
• The Panthers tie the Falcons, and the Redskins beat or tie the Titans
• The Panthers tie the Falcons, and the Vikings tie the Lions
• The Panthers tie the Falcons, and the Eagles beat or tie the Texans
• The Eagles beat or tie the Texans, and the Vikings tie the Lions
• The Eagles beat the Texans, and the Cowboys beat or tie the Buccaneers, and the Redskins tie the Titans
• The Redskins beat the Titans, and the Eagles beat or tie the Texans, and the Cowboys beat or tie the Buccaneers

Summary

Not a single team in the NFL has clinched home-field advantage or a first-round bye yet. That puts high stakes on every single game over the next two weeks. One of the most comprehensive playoff scenario maps I’ve seen out is one put together by the New York Times. I highly recommend checking out The Upshot NYT playoff trees and interactive simulator if you are an NFL fan that enjoys seeing the odds and the complexities of every possible and potential outcome.

The simple way for teams to get into the post-season is always to win. And those who can’t have to wait and see who does or does not. That’s the nature of the NFL playoff system and it always makes for some entertainment at the end of every regular season in the league.