Weekly Bold Prediction: Steelers offense blows Buffalo away
Following some abysmal offensive displays by the Pittsburgh Steelers, this may seem like the boldest prediction yet because the odds indicate the Steelers as about 1.5-point underdogs this weekend, but I’m going to at least support my thoughts with some stats and facts.
First and foremost, we know the Pittsburgh Steelers have had issues with dropped passes. Those drops have hindered them, including succumbing to their first loss of the season last Monday against the Washington Football Team. Without converting, drives went dead without first downs or the offense was put in a bad position, usually facing a 3rd-and-long situation.
I’d like to think some of that gets back on track this week in a huge Sunday Night Football encounter with the Bills. But why am I so bullish on the Steelers repairing what appears to be a downward trend against a 9-3 team firmly atop their division and in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt?
Going back before the Ravens game, the Steelers had scored more points-per-game than any other year in franchise history. That means the offense is actually good, despite what we see to be as less than perfect. A non-ideal situation surrounding the Baltimore game put them in a really bad spot as well, both with practice and scheduling rest – they came out rusty, but that wasn’t all.
Many people are forgetting the other circumstances which has negated a run game for the Steelers, namely losing Maurkice Pouncey and James Conner to positive COVID-19 tests.
Conner has already been activated from the list this week and Pouncey is within the window to return for Sunday’s game as well. (Provided all goes according to plan.) While I feel Benny Snell could’ve done well in Conner’s stead, losing Pouncey for backup J.C. Hassenhauer, mere hours before kickoff against the Ravens, was something the Steelers weren’t prepared for.
Hassenhauer also struggled against a fantastic Washington defensive front, which forced the Steelers into being a one-dimensional team.
I’m not going to blow my top here and say the Steelers rush for over 100 yards against the Bills, because I think the game could devolve into a shootout where each team goes into a heavy passing scheme to keep pace with the other. But I’m definitely more confident about the Steelers defense keeping a lid on the Bills offense than I am vice versa.
Therefore, I will predict that the Steelers offense will at least top 30 points and at least 400 yards of offense.
While the Bills record indicates they have played well this season, quite a bit of that is due to their play on offense, rather than their defense. Buffalo enters Sunday’s matchup as the worst second-half defense in the NFL in allowing points with 16.2 in the third and fourth quarter. Their lopsided win over a hobbled San Francisco 49ers team on Monday helped skew those stats a bit, but San Fran still managed 17 second half points. (Albeit with a garbage time touchdown with less than a minute remaining in the game.)
Buffalo’s average had been slightly worse going back two weeks (an extra half-point per-game) and 17.0 points allowed in the second half over their last three games. They also give up 17.7 this season when playing at Ralph Wilson Stadium, the site of Sunday’s game.
I also have some other skepticism about the Bills. When every critic of the Steelers panned them for being the “worst 11-0 team in history” I look at a Bills team that could have a better record – or a worse one.
Buffalo kicked off the 2020 season playing the Jets and Dolphins – Miami, at the time, was not the same Dolphins team they are now… and Buffalo squeaked by with a three-point road win. That Dolphins team still heavily featured Matt Breida and Jordan Howard in their backfield (no longer the case).
The Bills also snuck by with three-point wins over the Rams and Patriots. They have another win over the hapless Jets on their record (by eight points) and glaring victories over the Seahawks (at home), Chargers (at home) and Monday’s victory over the 49ers. Of those west coast teams, the Bills only traveled to play San Francisco, but not in that city, rather the game was moved to Arizona due to local California laws forbidding contact sports at the Niners home location.
The Seahawks were without starting running back Chris Carson as well as his backup Carlos Hyde. The Chargers and Niners each played the Bills with running backs who had recently come off of IR too.
Quite a bit of this pads defensive stats for a team that doesn’t rank very highly in them: 24th against the pass and 20th against the run.
In 12 games this season Buffalo has given up at least 400 yards in half of them – and have only held opponents under 330 yards twice… I should say “opponent” because it was the winless Jets, twice, who failed to do anything against the Bills. (Even the injury riddled Nick Mullens led 49ers topped 400 total yards of offense on Monday night.)
That gives me a great deal of confidence that returning two Steelers starters on offense, plus a renewed focus after losing – and the importance of this game in the AFC standings, will reignite Pittsburgh’s offense. And that explosion should set them up squarely for a run as the number one seed in the AFC with a win over the Bills.
