How many games can the Steelers realistically win in 2021?
Last season was a tale of two halves of a season for the Pittsburgh Steelers. After starting the year with an unbeaten 12-0 start, the Steelers lost four of their final five games, finishing with a 12-4 record, plus a disappointing loss in the first round of the playoffs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Betting Odds from Sidelines has them tenth in betting, with odds of +2500. The Miami Dolphins ahead according to the oddsmakers, showing that quite a few people with money on the line this season are expecting the Steelers to not be as strong as they were last season.
That statement could also be said of the previous season, where no one thought the Steelers had a shot at making the playoffs, let alone winning their division. Or the season before, or the one before that, or… pretty much, it’s fair to say that a lot of folks have had their doubts about the Steelers over the last several years and are always predicting the demise of Ben Roethlisberger as well.
Roethlisberger was a polarizing target of offseason conversation, as the team and the future Hall of Famer had to come to terms on a pay reduction, as the Steelers were faced with a tight salary cap after the pandemic-influenced 2020 season slashed budgets around the league.
Big Ben took a pay cut to return in 2021, and is out for redemption at age 39, entering his 18th NFL season – the most of any Steeler and most of any quarterback with the same team in league history.
There was speculation if last year’s late season collapse had anything to do with Roethlisberger’s arm, following a year off in 2019 due to an elbow injury. However, other scapegoats to the team’s woes were addressed this offseason, with most of the offense being revamped from the line to the running back position, and several new position coaches, including a new offensive coordinator.
The Steelers defense largely remained intact – and despite the losses of Bud Dupree, Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton, the organization has adequately replaced or upgraded the unit in key areas. Second-year edge rusher Alex Highsmith stood tall filling in for Dupree at the end of last season, while the Steelers brought back splash-play creating cornerback Cameron Sutton and recently traded for former Pro Bowl inside linebacker Joe Schobert.
Even with the departures of Maurkice Pouncey and David DeCastro, part of an oft-criticized offensive line in 2020, the Steelers were able to add other veteran players such as OG Trai Turner and OLB Melvin Ingram.
Some analysts will speak of other losses, such as Alejandro Villanueva or James Conner, as being detrimental, while in the same breath speaking about the Steelers offensive issues, namely with running the football last season. The two go hand-in-hand, and it’s a fresh slate for the Steelers offense and most of the world class defense returning for 2021.
That leads to the title question: how many games will the Steelers in this season?
The devil is in the details, as Pittsburgh is calculated to have the league’s strongest strength of schedule. However, their slate of opponents is common with the rest of their tough division, as the AFC North produced three of the AFC’s seven playoff teams last year.
That skews the statistics on paper, as does the division’s common opponents in the NFC North, which saw the Packers and Bears make the playoffs in 2020.
Oddsmakers aren’t favoring the Steelers, but they’re also a bit bullish on the Ravens and Browns, as all three teams will eat into each other’s win totals. The Steelers draw the Bills, Titans and Seahawks as their three games which differ, while the Ravens get the Dolphins, Colts and Rams, and the Browns receive the Patriots, Texans and Cardinals.
Doing a thorough run-through of all four AFC North schedules on the Steel City Underground Podcast, myself and Zach Metkler came to a solid conclusion where the top three division teams all split with one another this season – with the Bengals still being the odd-man out.
Pittsburgh may have their work cut out for them more on the road than at home this season, with an opening weekend in Buffalo, a Week 4 clash in Green Bay (against Aaron Rodgers), and a post-Christmas encounter with the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Projecting losses in all of those games, we predicted that the Steelers could be at a plus/minus one game margin with a baseline of ten wins.
It’s not where everyone else has the Steelers, but there’s sound reason to thinking they should adequately handle teams such as the Raiders, Bears, and Lions. Some other competitive games will occur with the Seahawks and Titans, and they’re certainly setup for failure on a short week Thursday Night Football trip to Minnesota, but the Steelers should also sweep the Bengals this season.
A road game at the Chargers never proves to be a challenge (it’s a home game for the road team) and the Seahawks also travel across the country for a primetime clash at Heinz Field.
If the Steelers sweep, instead of split, the Ravens or Browns as well, a 10-11 win season is within reach: as is another AFC North title.
That’s where we see this Pittsburgh team, which is unproven on paper but improved in many areas, finishing in 2021.
