Realistic expectations for Chase Claypool in 2021
Chase Claypool delivered on and even surpassed Steelers fans’ excitement and expectations for his rookie season. The Notre Dame prospect hauled in 62 receptions on 109 targets for 873 yards and 11 total touchdowns: 9 receiving and 2 rushing. That performance set the franchise record for the most receptions by a rookie wide receiver and tied for the most touchdowns scored by a rookie wide receiver in Steelers’ history. His 11 total touchdowns also tied for the 6th most by any rookie wide receiver in NFL history.
In short, Claypool’s rookie season was nothing short of spectacular and if he improves going forward, he could develop into a truly special player in the league. But what does improvement look like and what can Steelers fans realistically expect from Claypool in his 2nd season?
From a statistical outlook, if recent history is any indication, then Claypool should see a relatively significant step forward in year 2.
Over the past five seasons, from 2015 to 2019, the only receivers who had rookie seasons similar to, or better than, Claypool’s 2020 campaign were: Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, D.K. Metcalf, and A.J. Brown, which is quite the star-studded list to be on.
But, more important, is the statistical jump that those receivers made from their rookie to second seasons.
On average, they saw an increase of 32 targets, 23 receptions, and 216 yards, while their touchdown totals remained roughly the same.
If you give Chase Claypool just the average statistical jump (adjusted for a 17-game season), then he would end the year with roughly 150 targets, 91 receptions, 1,157 yards, and 9 receiving touchdowns. That would certainly be an impressive start to his career in and of itself, but if he makes a higher-than-average improvement, then he could put up monster stats in 2021.
Optimism aside though, those numbers are a projection and Claypool still has to improve as a receiver on the field. On top of that, some factors could hinder him statistically in 2021.
Most significantly, Claypool probably has more competition on his own team for targets than any of the above-mentioned wide receivers did in their respective seasons and, on top of that, the Steelers will probably throw fewer passes this season. So, even if Claypool does improve as a player this season, he may have to wait until the Steelers’ wide receiver room thins out before he can truly breakout.
With all that said, the sky is the limit for Chase Claypool, and Steelers fans will simply have to stay tuned for what he has in store in 2021.
