Why the Steelers should pass on picking, or picking up, a QB this season
Talking about Ben Roethlisberger’s replacement following retirement is all the rage right now. Not long ago I discussed how I was annoyed with all of the speculation, breaking down some of the free agents that are, and are not, available to step into that role.
Now I’m here to tell you about a completely different approach from all of the ones you’re seeing in the media: it’s not a draft pick and it’s not some retread “veteran” (i.e. failed) quarterback.
It’s the only quarterback currently under contract with the Steelers: Mason Rudolph.
Everyone wants the Steelers to go after a big fish. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are names which are tossed around but would cost the team significant draft and salary capital to acquire.
Others prefer the draft approach, but their actual approach is all over the board. Some say Pittsburgh will need to move up to “get their guy”. Some think their prospect could be available with the 20th overall selection in the first round.
Still, others toss out names that might be a reach in the first round – but acknowledge that these same players could be a value pick in the second, third, or even fourth rounds. Then they can develop that draft pick into the QB of the future.
That approach drives me crazy, because it’s exactly why Rudolph was drafted, and then given a contract extension.
Those people forget the value Mason Rudolph represents: the Steelers said they had a first-round grade on during the 2018 NFL Draft, but ended up as the first passer taken outside of the first round that year, the sixth quarterback overall.
Rudolph enters his fifth season with the Steelers in 2022, having developed over the previous four seasons.
Yet, that’s not enough for some critics. They understand that Rodgers and Wilson are pipe dreams, and that the top prospects, in a not-so-hot 2022 QB draft class, might not be there at pick 20.
However, these purported realists fall into a fantasy world, bypassing who the Steelers already have for reclamation projects who have failed with other teams.
Marcus Mariota. Mitchell Trubisky. Jameis Winston.
Maybe these quarterbacks might work out, but I don’t believe they’re necessarily an upgrade. These former first round picks each moved on from their original teams, and could be headed to their third shortly as free agency looms within about a month’s time.
For all intents and purposes, the logic behind these names is that they were first round selections, and perhaps they were a solid talent in a bad situation. Former Washington first round pick, Dwayne Haskins, fits that same description, and has been tendered by the Steelers this offseason as an exclusive rights free agent.
A Haskins return represents the same opportunity as a Mariota or Trubisky retread. It also affords an opportunity for Mason Rudolph as well – an insurance policy if you will.
Rudolph represents the pre-draft hype first round talent that you’re seeing everywhere else with the incoming class. He’s the “sit behind” guy, having backed up future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger for several seasons and he doesn’t cost any sensational salary cap money to have on the roster.
He has also started a number of NFL games, making him far from a first-timer.
Pittsburgh has invested time and money into the 26-year-old, and neither of those investments should go to waste. Many are concerned that Rudolph will fail, but that’s precisely what the team must give him a chance at.
If Rudolph fails, then the Steelers know they must move on from him: but not until then.
Bringing in a lukewarm veteran quarterback, like Ryan Fitzpatrick, only muddies the water. We’ve seen it happen with Fitzpatrick in Washington and in Miami: neither of those teams have settled on their franchise signal caller to date, but used a journeyman “bridge” quarterback approach only to steal time and reps from developing their younger option.
That type of situation also makes the Steelers one a bigger mess. Are you willing to bring in Trubisky to watch him share a third of training camp and preseason snaps in preparation to take the starting job?
I know the answer if we said Rudolph or Haskins there, so why make it more complicated? If anything, the Steelers should be splitting these reps evenly, with Rudolph ready to start Week 1, unless he looks incredibly bad. (And to date, he hasn’t.)
Say Rudolph starts Week 1 and by Week 5, he’s an obvious failure. Pittsburgh can then turn to Haskins and see if he does as well.
If both prove to be putrid, I can’t imagine the Steelers winning more games than they did in 2021. That moves their draft stock higher than their current 20th overall spot in 2022, and with a better crop of quarterbacks available in the 2023 NFL Draft.
In other words, you get to see if you have your guy now. Should Rudolph (or even Haskins in his stead) succeed, the Steelers won’t have to drop a draft pick on a quarterback anytime soon.
The other realized advantage here is not using a higher draft pick on a quarterback who is unlikely to play in 2022. Fans think that a rookie will instantly jump in.
I sense that Mike Tomlin, like Andy Reid did with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City and Bill Cowher attempted with Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, will make that first-year player sit for a season before competing for a spot.
Tomlin prefers a “veteran” starter, so I’d expect a redshirt season for any quarterback drafted soon. That doesn’t help the situation for Rudolph, Haskins, or even the rookie, headed into the future.
If the Steelers jump the gun and draft a quarterback, particularly with a high pick, and then Rudolph succeeds, the team wastes an opportunity to put better talent around their Roethlisberger replacement via free agency or the NFL Draft. (Namely the offensive line, but also depth elsewhere, as they don’t have their full slew of picks in 2022 either.)
That doesn’t sound like winning football, nor does reaching for a player like Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, or even Jimmy Garoppolo. Each of those players, as noted in this article, aren’t currently free agents. Their current teams are looking for draft picks and/or players in exchange for the passer, and then that passer is also going to command a large salary.
It puts the Steelers in another potential “moving backwards” scenario, where they lose draft picks and cap space to build the team. (Not to mention the pitfalls of age, injuries, and legal issues outlined in that article.)
If you hated their free agent approach over the last decade with Big Ben’s big contracts, then you’ll surely despise what they would have to shell out for these players.
That’s why standing pat makes the most sense. Rudolph is under contract. Haskins will likely be brought back as an exclusive rights free agent as well.
The Steelers aren’t making those moves to just be three deep on the bench. Any quarterback taken would have to fall into their lap – with 2023 being the better crop of free agents and college prospects I see no need to jump the shark for someone who isn’t a clear upgrade over the two signal callers already available.
