Arguments against the Steelers going after Mitchell Trubisky
From the end of the season until the present day, I think I’ve seen other websites, TV and radio shows link no fewer than 30 different quarterbacks to the Pittsburgh Steelers, all trying to predict the best fit to replace the now retired Ben Roethlisberger.
In a series of upcoming articles, I’m going to highlight the pros and cons… just kidding. Only the cons – that is, of the Steelers acquiring a veteran quarterback this offseason.
This article focuses strictly on Mitchell Trubisky and his current situation.
Note: unlike several of the other “argument” columns I have written, Trubisky is scheduled to be a free agent.
Trubisky is one of the more intriguing free agent quarterbacks I’ve looked at this offseason. His proponents claim he was a product of bad coaching, drafted by now-former Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy.
The positive coming from that camp is that Trubisky led the Bears to a 12-4 record and the playoffs, while also being named to the Pro Bowl in 2018. That season, by far his best saw the former second-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft complete 66.6% of his passes for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.
But was he a product of the system that year?
Bears backup Chase Daniel, who started two games in Trubisky’s absence in 2018, completed 69.7% of his 76 pass attempts for 515 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in those appearances: a 23-16 win over the Lions and a 30-27 loss to the Giants.
Interestingly enough, Trubisky’s top pass target was also a first-team All-Pro that season: but it wasn’t a wide receiver. Instead, RB Tarik Cohen edged out WR Taylor Gabriel with 71 receptions and 725 receiving yards. Cohen would finish third in touchdowns, as prized acquisition, TE Trey Burton was also among the leaders in catches, yards, and touchdown receptions.
WR Allen Robinson would lead all receivers with 754 yards on 55 receptions in 2018 and pass the 1,000-yard mark in 2019, but the Bears would fall to an 8-8 record as Trubisky threw 17 touchdowns to 10 interceptions, after being asked to throw 516 times in 15 games. (An uptick of 82 more pass attempts from the previous year.)
In those appearances, Trubisky also avoided sacks, mostly on par with his peers: something I’ve highlighted in being against other free agent quarterbacks his offseason.
So why am I down on him?
Mitch’s slide begins in 2020 when he was benched in Week 3 for Nick Foles and wouldn’t earn his starting gig back until Week 12. In that primetime game against the Lions, Trubisky would fumble in his team’s red zone with two minutes remaining in the game, which eventually led to a Chicago loss.
Those plays have epitomized his career, which is what opponents of Trubisky’s will point out often: he doesn’t protect the football well.
In 50 career starts he’s had 1,585 pass attempts with 10,652 yards and a 64.1% completion rate. As noted, Trubisky doesn’t get sacked nearly as often as others, taking 111 over those dropbacks.
However, his 2:1 TD:INT ratio is worrisome, but it’s his tag of being more of a mobile quarterback that should concern his proponents, as Mitch struggles to hold onto the ball, fumbling 27 times over 51 total games with Chicago. (Or over half of his games.)
Combining the ten lost fumbles of those 27 with his 37 interceptions during that time equals 47 times he’s turned the ball over in 51 games. That’s a killer.
Could Trubisky correct those issues? And were they a product of a bad team and/or coaching?
His greatest success came from dumping off passes to his running backs and tight ends, which would work well with Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh. He also had a connection with Robinson, as noted above, so he can find his top receivers, when necessary, too.
His biggest issue? 16 of those 51 starts (roughly one-third) has seen him struggle with inconsistency, failing to complete at least 60% of his throws. His career 64.1% completion is further skewed as ten of those 60% or more completion-rate games come with an average of 6.0 yards per attempt or fewer.
In other words, if you loved the dink-and-dunk offense the Steelers have been forced to use during the last three seasons, you’d get more of the same with Trubisky.
For me, that’s not an upgrade over Mason Rudolph or Dwayne Haskins. Trubisky has had seven 300-plus-yard passing games over those 51 starts. However, four of those all came in his successful 2018 campaign, with only two since.
I’d surmise that we know the type of player Trubisky is, with 51 starts over Rudolph’s 10 or Haskins’ 16. His ball security issues are the biggest black mark on his career, and whether or not he’s damaged goods is another question.
Some team will pay to find out this offseason. Will it be the Steelers?
I feel he’s going to field a better offer than the one he received in a post-pandemic reduced salary cap in 2021, where he landed with the Buffalo Bills. The best bet is that he could sign with the New York Giants, where Trubisky’s 2021 offensive coordinator Brian Daboll just took over as head coach. (And is far from settled with current QB Daniel Jones, who the team has declined to option for a fifth year on his rookie contract as of publishing.)
I don’t believe his contract will come at a premium unless the Steelers were to get caught in a bidding war between other teams.
With a lot of inconsistent play and ball security issues, I’d prefer the Steelers save their money and use it to build a better team around a different quarterback of the future.
