8 reasons the Steelers should avoid drafting a QB this season
There’s a lot of hubbub lately surrounding the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafting a quarterback.
The speculation has been going on for years, with the impending retirement of Ben Roethlisberger and everyone with an opinion guessing as to when the team may look toward the NFL Draft for his successor.
However, the rumors have ramped up even more this week with the NFL owners’ meetings and coaches’ dinners, where both general manager Kevin Colbert and head coach Mike Tomlin have made public statements alluding to their heavy focus on attending pro days featuring the top prospects entering this year’s draft.
While the Steelers very well could draft a passer with the 20th pick overall, I feel that this year isn’t the one to make such a move. Here’s why.
Is this a good draft class?
This is my biggest problem with drafting a quarterback this year: the class isn’t very deep and there very well may only be one “pro ready” player at the position: Pitt’s Kenny Pickett.
Beyond Pickett, small college standout, Liberty’s Malik Willis, has generated the most excitement and speculation as to being linked with the Steelers. North Carolina’s pro day was during the meetings, so Colbert and Tomlin also quipped about not being able to attend to see Sam Howell (though Colbert attended a game during the college season to scout him).
Then there’s a few others in the mix, including Mississippi’s Matt Corral and Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder.
The issue is, how good are these quarterbacks and how early can they be taken?
We’ve seen teams go bonkers for the position in recent years with limited success. Should the Steelers reach for their guy?
Who’s available at 20?
I named five quarterbacks above and in last year’s (better) QB draft class, five passers were taken in the top 15 picks: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones.
This makes it infinitely difficult to predict what will happen and who will be there when the Steelers are on the clock with the 20th overall pick. I highly doubt they have interest in taking the fourth or fifth quarterback overall.
And its very likely that many go again this year, even in a perceived weaker class.
Among the teams without a solidified quarterback situation who draft ahead of the Steelers are the Houston Texans, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, and Washington Commanders.
The New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints could also surprise someone and look to change gears with their signal callers as well – with the Eagles having three picks before the Steelers go on the clock. Another wild card is the Detroit Lions, who have the second pick in the draft and could be fielding trade calls.
Needless to say, that’s more than five teams looking for a quarterback, not including the Steelers (if they are). They would maybe have a shot at the third or fourth best prospect if that. Nevermind the fact there may not be five first round graded passers in this draft…
Past first round picks
Last year’s crop of rookies didn’t do so hot. And nearly all of the recent first round pick quarterbacks, give or take the last few drafts, are no longer with the team who drafted them.
Dwayne Haskins is the most recent example, the 15th overall pick in 2019 who is coincidentally now with the Steelers but was drafted by Washington initially.
The other two first round passers that season, Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones, may be on the outs with their teams as well. Murray went on a social media tirade following the Pro Bowl, in which he removed all Cardinals mentions from his accounts, while Jones has been a hot seat candidate since last season and certainly is again with a new head coach in New York.
2018’s top overall pick, Baker Mayfield, is seeking a trade from the Cleveland Browns, who went out and snagged Deshaun Watson this offseason in another (crazy) trade. Sam Darnold, taken two picks later in the same year by the Jets, is now with the Panthers.
Josh Rosen, the tenth pick of that draft, has been on five rosters since 2018 and is currently without a team.
Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have both bucked the trend, but everyone else who has come before them in the last ten years, sans Patrick Mahomes, is on a new team or out of the NFL as well, including Mitchell Trubisky, Watson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater, E.J. Manuel, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden.
That makes taking a quarterback a huge risk, sometimes one that comes with a bigger cost…
Can they afford to trade up?
The Steelers have basically said they like their draft picks: and with fewer ones this season, I don’t see them using their capital to move up with a team unless it’s to jump a few spots (swapping maybe a later round pick with their trade partner).
The short answer is no. The longer answer is, this is not the Steelers style. They aren’t ones to mortgage the future taking a huge gamble.
They get their guy: now what about the other 3?
The Steelers have already set themselves up nicely for the 2022 season.
Most folks clamoring for a quarterback tend to forget that the way Mike Tomlin is fawning over Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder is the same way he gave loving glances at Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph back in 2018.
Yes, that Mason Rudolph, which is why there is smoke to the fire of drafting a quarterback, but I’m uncertain that the Steelers pull the trigger with a top pick, if at all.
That’s because they already have the top quarterback drafted from the 2017 class in Mitch Trubisky, and their own developed draft pick from 2018 in Mason Rudolph to duke it out with 2019’s 15th overall choice (via Washington) Dwayne Haskins, for the team’s starting job.
If they add a fourth quarterback to this mix, someone who was highly considered in the previous drafts has to go: the team usually rosters three quarterbacks, which is considered to be “too many” for several other NFL franchises who only retain two on their roster.
That fourth QB won’t get necessary reps in training camp and likely makes things messier for the other three fighting for a roster spot as well.
Some will say Trubisky will simply start while the rookie stands on the sideline with a clipboard, but it’s not that simple.
What if the others pan out?
Hear me out: what do the Steelers do if Trubisky, Rudolph or Haskins ball out and they have their draft pick riding the pine?
The easy answer is “trade them”, but trade who? The veteran who is playing like one, or the new, unknown guy?
Keep an eye on the San Francisco 49ers this season. They were all but willing to give Jimmy Garoppolo away, but teams weren’t biting for the asking price. San Fran had moved up last season to draft QB Trey Lance, and have him waiting in the wings. However, is the team going to make that move anytime soon?
Or will they end up sticking with Jimmy G after all, potentially realizing that the Lance pick might not work out?
That would mean the 49ers jumped the gun and maybe wasted draft picks in 2021, something the current Steelers certainly cannot afford.
Red Shirt Freshman?
If a name is read on draft day and it happens to be a quarterback, the fan expectations will be through the roof.
Jersey sales will soar for whoever it is, much like James Conner‘s did back in 2017… and much like Conner, fans will have to wait at least one season before getting any use out of it, because it’s highly unlikely, no matter the fervor or outside pressure, that Mike Tomlin will field a first-year passer.
Can this year’s Steelers afford to “red shirt” a high draft pick by having them inactive on game days?
Improving other areas
Finally, I’m an advocate of the Steelers bolstering other areas of their roster: let these others franchises make the quarterback mistake this season while you roll with the three aforementioned names already on the depth chart. You can give those players the best chance to win by taking a stud wide receiver or adding to the offensive line, for example.
You then “save” that quarterback draft pick card in your back pocket for next year, should either of the trio there fail to impress and an obvious upgrade is needed. If those players don’t do well, it stands to reason the Steelers won’t win as many games in 2022 – yes, a painful thought, but it also means they’ll be in a higher position to draft from what should be a better quarterback class in 2023.
