Overreactions from Steelers Nation: Should there be concern about Kenny Pickett?
Welcome to my weekly edition of “Overreactions from Steelers Nation” a weekly column where I poke fun at fans, reporters, and so-called experts while trying to figure out if some of these hot takes are real – or just for attention.
Expectations were riding high for the debut of Kenny Pickett. The Steelers first round rookie quarterback has had some success, and failures, through the first half of the 2022 NFL season.
Some fans are looking closely at Pittsburgh’s win-loss record, and asking: “Should we be concerned?”
Here’s some insight into how the glass is half empty and half full.
Instant Expectations
Up until a year ago, many NFL fans never heard the name “Kenny Pickett”. However, Pickett’s name was well-known among college football fans, particularly as a hometown quarterback of the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Pickett’s 2022 season at Pitt concluded with him being the most “pro ready” quarterback entering the NFL Draft.
Pickett, having broken many of Marino’s college records, was a “can’t miss” prospect in the eyes of many Pitt/college fans who also follow the Steelers.
This placed expectations upon the young passer instantly, but the pressure grew as soon as his named was called by the Steelers – the latter of whom passed on another Pitt QB in the 1983 draft, a decision that seemingly haunted a franchise that took until 2004 to find a true franchise quarterback once again, following the retirement of Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw.
Comparisons
The comparisons, both to Marino and the man Pickett is replacing, another future Hall of Famer, Ben Roethlisberger, are creating lofty expectations.
Roethlisberger shot out of a cannon during his rookie season, winning 13 games as a rookie who wasn’t even supposed to play right away. Most fans remember that vividly and are expecting the same type of outcome with Pickett in charge, but they are overlooking the surrounding cast and circumstances that saw the team succeed: and it wasn’t necessarily that Big Ben was sole reason.
Roethlisberger threw for 17 touchdowns and 11 interceptions as a rookie, but did so with a cast that included running backs Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley, and Willie Parker, as well as receivers Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward, and Antwaan Randle El. The defense was also top-notch, with many legendary players such as Troy Polamalu, James Farrior, Joey Porter and others holding opposing offenses to ten times. (Including a playoff victory in overtime against the Jets.)
That’s key, because the Steelers offense wasn’t yet mature with Roethlisberger under center. In 8 of their 18 games (including two playoff contests) The Steelers failed to score more than 20 points. In four of the games in which Pittsburgh put up more on the scoreboard, it was because of defensive touchdowns.
Furthermore, Roethlisberger not only threw some interceptions, but several pick-sixes throughout the season. He was far from a shoe-in as a “franchise quarterback” in year one, throwing for over 200 yards only four times in the regular season: 221, 221, 231 and his only 300-yard or more game, 316 yards on 18 completions against the Giants.
The Problem?
The chief problem right now with Pickett isn’t just a lack of experience, but the experience around him. Fans have noted the interceptions the rookie quarterback has thrown thus far, but some have failed to acknowledge some of the reasons surrounding those – including being off-script with his receivers, some of whom have tipped catchable balls right to the opposition.
With NFL betting online becoming more popular than ever, there are more eyes on newbies than ever; which means the scrutiny is also greater, and criticisms are flying in from every which way.
To those who are chasing stats, they see a player who has thrown a lot of picks (8) to touchdowns (2). To others, they see with theirs eyes a highly accurate passer with lots of poise, who could grow to become something. However, that will take time.
Practically none of the greats started out great. Roethlisberger finished his first 40 starts with 52 touchdowns to 43 interceptions and was sacked 99 times. His third year was the worst of those campaigns, completing fewer than 60% of his passes and tossing 18 touchdowns to 23 picks.
Big Ben would follow that up in 2007 with 32 touchdowns to 11 interceptions – and we all know what happened in 2008, a Super Bowl victory despite regressing to 17:15 in TD:INT ratio.
Many others through the years failed when first out on the field as well. Aaron Rodgers took four seasons to play, but could only lead the Packers to a 6-10 record. Peyton Manning still holds the rookie record for interceptions thrown in his first season, with 28 picks to 26 touchdowns.
Yes, it’s unfair to mention those names to Pickett’s thus far, but it gives some insight into how difficult it is to be an NFL quarterback.
Should the Steelers Worry?
The answer is, in some ways “yes” and in some ways “no.”
Pickett is still a rookie with roughly four full games of football played. His story is still being written, and any kneejerk reactions to his play are simply overblown.
There will be bad decisions, and the team cannot lean on their young quarterback solely to produce positive results. Steelers quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan is just starting to work with the rookie QB, who assumed the full practice reps a little over a month ago. In that respect, I don’t believe the team or fans should worry – there’s still a feeling out period which will go into at least the next season and perhaps year three before the dividends of his selection could be fully realized.
In one last comparison, Bills QB Josh Allen was much the same player as a rookie, completing 52% of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns to 20 interceptions. He slowly grew year-to-year, and now you can see that even the most skeptical of Bills fans are no longer feeling that same way.
I’m not saying Pickett will be “the guy”, but the angry mob needs to tone it down and at least give the rookie a chance to progress. Patience is key, and we won’t truly know if drafting Pickett is a hit or miss until several more years down the road.
