Five reasons the Pittsburgh Steelers will, and won’t, compete for the Super Bowl this season
Ever since the regression and eventual retirement of Big Ben, the Steelers haven’t been seen as legit Super Bowl contenders. Winning their division is now harder than ever too, with a guantlet of star quarterbacks playing for the rest of the AFC North.
Despite that, a new season is on the horizon and optimism abounds, but is it wise for fans to have high expectations this season? A quick look at the Vegas odds for NFL and more doesn’t suggest Pittsburgh will be hoisting the Lombardi at the of this season. Yet, there are still reasons to believe a playoff run isn’t a completely crazy wish.
Here are five reasons why the Steelers have a chance to compete with the best of them this season.
The AFC North
The AFC North was the first division in 88 years to see all of their teams have a winning record. Essentially, every single team the Steelers has to face twice on a yearly basis has a shot at making the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals have traded the division crown with Pittsburgh since the inception of the AFC North in 2002. Although the Cleveland Browns haven’t won the division during that same span, they finally finished ahead of the Steelers in the North, and the old AFC Central, for the first time since 1989.
With the Ravens, Browns, and Steelers all making the playoffs in 2023, one might think this division would weed out weaker teams as they all play each other twice. Essentially, Pittsburgh could find themselves the odd man out.
However, the Steelers had a 5-1 record against the division last year, and had every opportunity to make it a perfect unbeaten 6-0, despite their shortcomings.
The NFL schedule
Some NFL teams have their fate decided well before the season starts. The schedule each team has to play is a significant part in determining their season record.
The Steelers have a wild luck of the draw in 2024. The Steelers have been gifted a more manageable schedule than usual, having finished third in their division in 2023. That means the holes in their calendar are rounded out by playing similar third-place finishers from last season, such as the Jets, Colts, and Broncos. All three of those games occur within the first seven weeks of the season, before Pittsburgh’s bye week in Week 9.
FOX SPORTS has stated they have the third most manageable schedule of all teams, with a predicted .533 win percentage.
Matchups against the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, before and after the bye, should give us a glimpse of who this team is by mid-November. If they come out of Week 10 with six or more wins, then the Steelers could be riding high through nine games.
What happens after the November 10th slate against the Commanders could be daunting if the team doesn’t have their act together. Their first division game will be played in Week 11, with four AFC North battles in a row (including a road trip to Cleveland on Thursday night.)
A trifecta of tough opponents, including the Eagles and Ravens on the road, then the Chiefs at home on a short week on Christmas Day, could spell trouble for the second half of the season. Should the Steelers get a hot start and continue through their harder half of the calendar, then they may be battle-tested for the postseason.
New era at quarterback
After Ben Roethlisberger retired from the sport after the 2021 season, the franchise struggled to find a replacement. Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett, and Mitchell Trubisky all failed to make their mark when thrust into the starting position.
This offseason, all three quarterbacks were replaced. The Steelers signed nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson to a one-year contract this offseason while supplementing him with former Chicago Bears first round pick, and Ohio State Buckeyes standout, Justin Fields via a trade.
The hope is either Wilson or Fields will be an upgrade to previous contingent. Better quarterback play could mean more wins for the Steelers but the inverse is also true: what if the upgrades at quarterback aren’t upgrades? Could the Steelers actually see worse play from their historically bad offenses over the last two seasons?
Needless to say, quarterback is one major contributing factor as to whether this team will be built to compete with the rest of the league.
Everyone else’s quarterback
It starts within their own division, where the Steelers have to contend with league MVP Lamar Jackson and a returning Joe Burrow. Burrow will rejoin a Bengals team that won nine games while he missed nearly half the season. The Cleveland Browns are also hoping their oft-injured but highly paid passer, Deshaun Watson, is back to Pro Bowl form too.
All three give the Steelers stiff competition while the remainder of the AFC may already be ahead. A road trip in the postseason almost certainly means a date against Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes or Buffalo with Josh Allen. (The latter of whom shredded the Steelers in the playoffs last season.)
The Steelers may also be looking over their shoulder at other contenders, such as the New York Jets with Aaron Rodgers and the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud.
The hope is Pittsburgh fortified their defense enough this offseason by signing LB Patrick Queen and S DeShon Elliott, while trading for CB Donte Jackson and drafting LB Peyton Wilson. Adding these players with perennial Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt, and Pro Bowl level talents such as Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward could give the Steelers one of the best defensive units in the league that’s able to contend with anyone: so long as they can remain healthy, which was a major issue in 2023.
The new offensive line
The last chunk of the equation is the Steelers offensive line, which has been a big focus of their rebuild over the last few seasons. Previous veteran additions James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo relinquished only a single sack last season. However, the other positions were still lacking at times, leading to the team using their first two draft picks in 2024 on linemen.
First round selection Troy Fautanu hopes to win a starting job at one of the tackle spots while second round pick Zach Frazier is all but penciled in as the team’s future at the center position. In the mix are 2023 first round pick Broderick Jones, who is a natural left tackle but was moved to play on the right side last season. Veteran Dan Moore, the incumbent starting left tackle, has started all but two games in his three-year career.
The changes are intended to give Wilson and Fields more time to throw, as both quarterbacks were among the league’s most sacked over the last few seasons. A renewed emphasis on running the football in Arthur Smith’s new offense will also rely on the new line to bulldoze paths for running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
A new brand of football could be in Pittsburgh this season, but if the line fails, the above factors could be too much for the team to overcome and they will find themselves right back at the drawing board in 2025. Still, with head coach Mike Tomlin running the show, it would be hard to believe that the Steelers won’t be in the mix of teams in playoff contention come January. As the longest-tenured coach is well aware, all you need to do is get into the tournament to have a shot the biggest prize. (Just as his predecessor Bill Cowher once did as a sixth seed during the 2005-06 season!)
