Why the Steelers should pass on trading for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been consistently linked to signing or trading for a big-name wide receiver since the start of the 2024 league year. However, GM Omar Khan has yet to pull the trigger on any major acquisitions, instead opting to add several veterans and journeymen to the roster.
As training camp progresses, we have seen wide receiver chatter heat up. One name that has been the hottest around trade discussions is that of San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk, is entering the final year of his contract with the 49ers and seeking a deal that is consummate with that of the league’s highest-paid players at his position. San Fran has been unwilling to budge on negotiations, which has left Aiyuk to “sitting in” during their training camp and also demanding a trade.
It would appear that the 49ers are now listening to offers, per news that broke early this week.
The San Francisco 49ers are now willing to listen to trade offers for Brandon Aiyuk and have given the star wide receiver permission to negotiate a contract with other teams.
Story via @MikeReiss:https://t.co/WBkRSS7GAJ
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 6, 2024
Depending on which news outlet you want to believe while this rumor mill spins rapidly, the Steelers are either a favorite to land Aiyuk or they’re already out of the conversation.
From Inside Training Camp Live: Brandon Aiyuk remains a member of the #49ers with the #Steelers, #Browns and #Patriots among the teams in the mix. I wouldn’t rule any of them out at this point. pic.twitter.com/DUwpfEvPv8
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) August 6, 2024
As it stands, many fans are desperately pleading with Pittsburgh’s general manager Omar Khan to make a trade for the Niners standout.
However, I am of the opinion that the Steelers would put themselves in a bad position if they made this trade. Here’s why they should avoid an Aiyuk deal.
George Pickens is on the rise
If the Steelers believe that George Pickens is ready to make the leap to being the team’s primary receiver in 2024 it may behoove them to not add any other major names to their depth chart.
Pickens excelled last season despite poor player from the quarterback position throughout. In his sophomore showing, the former Georgia Bulldog produced 1,140 yards on 63 catches and five touchdowns. Along with his 18.1 yards per reception, all of those categories led the team last season.
Pickens enters his third season in the NFL with new quarterbacks at the helm. This may mean Pickens is ready to put up similar, or better, numbers than Aiyuk has thus far, meaning Aiyuk would not be the WR1 for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
What it will cost the Steelers
Would it be wise to trade for Aiyuk in this case if he’s second fiddle to Pickens? Keep in mind that while Aiyuk led the Niners in receptions and receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, he was in Kyle Shanahan’s system. That juggernaut is led by Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. How much of that leads to Aiyuk’s production can be questioned, especially when he’s seeking a premium contract and his current team is asking for something in return for one of their star players.
The 49ers will undoubtedly be looking for multiple, higher round draft picks for Aiyuk. If feel this is something the Steelers should not barter with for a player who is only under contract for one more season. The assumption, of course, is that Aiyuk will sign an extension with his new team.
That extension will easily be a top five contract for the Steelers and could be a top five contract across the board at the wide receiver position. Currently, there are nine wide receivers making $25 million or more on average per year with an additional twelve receivers averaging between $20 million and $25 million.
Impact on the Steelers salary cap
Beyond simply acquiring Aiyuk, Omar Khan is already looking ahead to 2025 and the quarterback position, which is seeing unheard of contract spending as well. This is important becuase there is currently no quarterback under contract to the Steelers beyond this season. With exactly half of the NFL’s starting quarterbacks earning $40 million or more on average per year, it’s imperative that the team has funds available in order to re-sign either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, or be able to financially compete in free agency to find their replacement – should they go with any of those options in 2025.
The Steelers will have an estimated $78 million in cap space next season, but that’s with only 39 players under contract. If half of their cap room is eaten by a quarterback, a large chunk of the remainder could be absolved by an Aiyuk deal, leaving them with little money leftover to address other upcoming contracts.
Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth, and Cameron Heyward are three starters who could become unrestricted free agents next offseason. Add Jaylen Warren as a restricted free agent and George Pickens entering his fourth and final year on his rookie contract, and the spending quickly adds up.
What will they give up?
It’s unlikely the Steelers will be able to keep everyone mentioned, but for them to make a large luxury purchase for an outside receiver, while giving up draft capital, seems unbecoming of how the team has operated through the years.
Despite Omar Khan bringing a different brand of wheeling and dealing to the Steel City over the last two years, the salary cap belonged to Khan long before he became the team’s general manager, as he was a VP alongside previous GM Kevin Colbert. As such, Khan could be viewing how Pittsburgh has scouted receivers in the past and may exercise patience in seeing not only how Pickens progresses, but also recent middle round selections Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson.
Should either of those players play above their draft pedigree, then Aiyuk would be an unnecessary addition. The Catch-22 is that best case scenario upholds the Steelers penchant for finding receivers anywhere in the draft. If those younger players fail, there may not be someone else to reload with, if the team gives up second or third round picks for Aiyuk.
Again, it’s a double-edge argument as Pickens was a second round selection himself, while the Steelers have had numerous finds, and failures, by not using first round draft picks at the receiver position over the years. The good, however, outweighs the ugly, with Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and George Pickens looming large over picks such as Limas Sweed, Markus Wheaton, Sammie Coates, James Washington, and Chase Claypool.
Regardless, if the Steelers trade those picks, you will never know if they’re getting a Pickens or a Claypool. They won’t have the opportunity.
Everyone Else
The Steelers have a glut of run-of-the-mill receivers behind Pickens, Austin, and Wilson. That statement may even be trimmed down to “behind Pickens”, but for the benefit of the doubt, we don’t fully know who Austin and Wilson are yet aside from their 4.2 and 4.3 forty time speed.
The others, such as Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, Quez Watkins, and Marquez Callaway are journeymen who haven’t struck big with their previous teams. Thus far, Austin and Jefferson have shown the capability to be steady players alongside Pickens, but the one teammate who isn’t getting talked about enough in Arthur Smith‘s new offense is TE Pat Freiermuth.
I previously asked some fans to name a Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver besides their former standout Tyreek Hill. If you also scratched your head, you wouldn’t be alone. Yet, you can name a productive pass-catcher on their roster, it just so happens to be a tight end: Travis Kelce.
Pat Freiermuth could be on the verge of a breakout season too and we may be overlooking his importance in Smith’s system. If Freiermuth can ascend to WR2-like numbers, then we will all forget anyone else not named George Pickens, as Freiermuth can also take the burden off of the other receivers need to produce, thus nullifying the need to make a big acquisition for a player such as Aiyuk.
