No Aiyuk no problem: why the Steelers will be just fine without him
There was a sudden hush over Steelers Nation as last week led into the holiday weekend. Those believing Steelers GM Omar Khan was ready to pull off a massive trade for San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk were dealt a gut punch, as Aiyuk came to terms on a contract extension with his current team.
The Pittsburgh Steelers had been consistently linked to signing or trading for a big-name wide receiver since the start of the 2024 league year, fueling the rumors that the team “needed” another playmaker on the offensive side of the football. Even oddsmakers such as banger casino had the Steelers as a favorite to land the Niners star receiver. The new contract ends those talks and with Aiyuk at the center of the speculation there’s a bit of concern that Pittsburgh missed the boat.
However, I’m here to tell those fans that dealing for Aiyuk was likely a bad proposition and the Steelers will be fine without him. Here’s why.
George Pickens is WR1
One thing that really bugged me about all of the Aiyuk trade talks was how adding an established receiver was going to affect George Pickens. It’s clear, at least to me, that the Steelers view Pickens as a potential WR1. Many believe that Pickens is ready to make the leap to being the team’s primary receiver in 2024. Adding other major names to their depth chart could chip into that progress.
Pickens excelled over his first two NFL seasons despite poor quarterbacking. Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett struggled in Matt Canada‘s offense, yet, Pickens continued to shine. Last season the former Georgia Bulldog produced 1,140 yards on 63 catches and five touchdowns. Adding 18.1 yards per reception, all of those categories led the 2023 squad.
Now that the Steelers have a new starting quarterback in Russell Wilson, Pickens is in a better place. Wilson is accustomed to flirting with NFL MVP honors with fantasy-type passing stats, but those waned in his previous two seasons due to poor coaching in Denver. Wilson was still able to throw ten touchdown passes to Courtland Sutton and had made household names out of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in his final years with the Seattle Seahawks.
Needless to say, Pickens is primed to flourish without someone else taking his targets. So where would that leave Aiyuk with the Steelers?
Aiyuk… WR2?
49ers fans and critics were waiting on Aiyuk to become a viable receiving option heading into the 2023 season. The team took on his fifth-year option to retain control of the former first-round pick after his first 1,000-yard receiving season in 2022. However, 2023 – essentially a contract year in Aiyuk’s mind – became a “breakout” year with 1,342 yards and 7 touchdowns. It was his yards-per-reception that was the major uptick, with a 17.9 average, increasing his value to other suitors.
Would Aiyuk have been that big of an upgrade for the Steelers? That will be left to our imagination now, but there was a real thought that he may not have been Pittsburgh’s top option with Pickens in line to match, or better, Aiyuk’s progress thus far.
During four years with the Niners, Aiyuk has only led the team once in receiving, with Deebo Samuel being the team leader. While Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle also cut into his numbers, the San Francisco offense was vastly more explosive than anything Pittsburgh has done in recent years. Aiyuk’s numbers would definitely take a dip, even if Arthur Smith’s new offense is more credible than his predecessor.
Pat Freiermuth and Jaylen Warren
The Kittle and McCaffrey statements above could also apply to Pittsburgh, where Freiermuth is lying in wait for his breakout season ahead of becoming a free agent in 2025. Freiermuth saw his totals dip in 2023 with injuries and the lack of offensive play. However, as soon as Matt Canada was let go, Pat posted his best career game with 9 receptions for 120 yards.
Warren had the second-most catches of anyone on the team, though his yard-per-catch and overall totals weren’t anything special last season.
With Smith as the new offensive coordinator, we could see more from the running back position. Smith led rookie Bijan Robinson to 58 receptions, 487 yards, and 4 touchdowns. Tyler Allgeier also added nearly 200 yards on 18 catches in the pass game as well.
Fans may scoff at the idea that a running back and tight end would be the next best options for the Steelers offense, but that wasn’t the case during the height of Todd Haley’s teams where Le’Veon Bell and Heath Miller were often running neck-and-neck with receiver-like stats.
Avoiding Aiyuk’s costs
According to OverTheCap.com, Aiyuk’s new deal with San Fran is as follows:
Brandon Aiyuk signed a 4 year contract extension with the San Francisco 49ers worth $120.0 million with $45 million guaranteed at signing and a $76 million total guarantee package. The contract includes option bonuses in 2025 ($22.855 million) and in 2026 ($24.935 million). Another $31 million in injury guarantees vest on April 1, 2025. Initial details courtesy of ProFootball Talk. The contract extension created $8.399 million in cap savings for 2024.
Aiyuk’s deal places him into a top five contract across the league at the wide receiver position. He will average $30 million per year with large cap hits accounting for $42.2 million and $44.1 million in his final two seasons of the extension. A void year is used to allocate another $14.5 million.
A similarly structured deal with the Steelers may have made it difficult for Pittsburgh to re-sign or extend several key players who will be due new money soon. Freiermuth, Warren, Cameron Heyward, and Najee Harris will all need inked to contracts beyond the 2024 season. Pickens will enter his final year of his rookie contract next year, with 2025 looming as an unrestricted free agent.
That would reshape the Steelers organization wholly, but the biggest missing component is that of a quarterback signed beyond this season. Russell Wilson is currently playing on a sweetheart’s deal that allows him to recoup all of his large contract from Denver. The Steelers are paying Wilson in the neighborhood of $1 million while the Broncos are still on the hook for $39 million in 2024.
The financials also look past any draft capital the Steelers would’ve traded to obtain Aiyuk, further hindering a rebuild in progress.
Other contributors
The Steelers have a glut of run-of-the-mill receivers behind George Pickens. The unknowns include veteran Van Jefferson, who should start the season as WR2, along with Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson (two speedsters with 4.2 and 4.3 forty time speed.)
So long as either of the fast receivers, Jefferson, and even the aforementioned backs and tight ends can create mismatches that allow Pickens to roam free, the WR2 spot will be all but forgotten: as long as the team wins.
Some of my blind optimism comes from that fact that, for years, fans were disgruntled with Diontae Johnson‘s running backwards or failure to make routine catches. If he was the team’s WR1 next to Pickens, then I believe the Steelers will do just fine moving forward.
Don’t forget, Johnson failed to catch a touchdown the entire 2022 season. It won’t take much to replace his production, which ended with catching only 86 of 147 targets for 882 yards in his non-scoring 2022 and 51 receptions on 87 passes for 717 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2023: both were career lows for Johnson in terms of catch percentage, leaving many plays on the field for another young receiver to pick up. (Pun intended.)
