Three potential playoff outcomes for the Steelers this weekend
The 10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers head into a rematch with the 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals this Saturday at Acrisure Stadium. The Week 18 matchup, the final week of the 2024 NFL regular season, is a must-win for the Bengals, who are trying to keep their postseason hopes alive.
However, the Steelers already clinched a playoff berth, but a win or loss will have an impact on where and who they play in the Wild Card round. Here are the three scenarios for the Steelers and which of those may be preferable.
Steelers Win AFC North: Host Los Angeles Chargers
The Baltimore Ravens must lose to the Cleveland Browns this weekend for this scenario to play out. That game is being played ahead of the Steelers/Bengals contest, with the Ravens traveling to Cleveland for a 4:30 ET kickoff. That means before the Steelers kickoff at 8:00 ET Saturday evening, they will know if the AFC North title is on the line or not.
Should the 3-13 Browns be able to unseat the Ravens, it would mean the Steelers host a home playoff game for the Wild Card round. However, that seems unlikely. The Browns are in a freefall and seem content there, jockeying for a high first-round draft pick. They benched starting quarterback Jameis Winston for second-year, unproven pro-Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, which resulted in a 20-3 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Combined with a New York Giants victory last Sunday, Cleveland moved into the third pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, currently behind the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans for the first overall selection.
Say what you want about pride, but going into Baltimore with the Ravens playing for the AFC North championship and a home playoff game doesn’t seem like a situation where Cleveland will play spoiler. Oddsmakers including the Hollywood bet app have the Browns as a 17.5-point underdog. Considering Cleveland has failed to score double-digit points in each of their last three games, it would appear the over/under of 42 points suggests a lopsided victory for the Ravens.
That means the Steelers will likely be headed on the road to play their first playoff game.
Ravens Win AFC North: Steelers visit Texans
This situation is a little more fluid and perhaps, preferable.
The Houston Texans have been in a funk lately as well, struggling against teams with winning records and on a current two-game losing streak. The Texans are 3-5 over their last eight games and play at Tennessee on Sunday. Regardless of that outcome, Houston would host a Wild Card game as winners of the AFC South as the four seed. They would host the five seed, which could be the Steelers.
For this scenario to play out, the following must happen:
- Both the Steelers and Ravens win
- Both the Steelers and Chargers lose
The Chargers are in a similar situation as the Ravens/Browns game, as they travel to Las Vegas to face a four-win Raiders squad. Never say never, however, as the Raiders are on a two-game winning streak against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. Yet, before their current string of back-to-back victories, the Raiders were on the brink of having the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft after losing ten straight.
Ouch.
The Chargers themselves may fancy a better finish and more favorable scenario than another “Harbaugh Bowl” as a loss would mean LA visits Baltimore in their Wild Card round. The Chargers/Raiders are a little trickier to figure out, as it’s a division game and Vegas has a potential home field advantage: even with their vacation destination usually spoiled by visiting fan bases, that is unlikely the case with a Chargers team who has their fans outnumbered in their home building as well.
LA enters the game a 5.5-point favorite with a 41 over/under set. In the Steelers favor, the Raiders have given up an average of 13 points-per-game over their last three. Yet, they’ll have to slowdown a Chargers offense that’s laid 34 points on the Broncos and 40 on the Patriots in the last two weeks.
Here’s to hoping the Steelers control their destiny regardless with a win.
Ravens Win AFC North: Steelers visit Ravens
A lot of fans would despise this situation, which would occur if the Steelers lose against the Bengals and Chargers defeat the Raiders. The aftermath of a Cincinnati loss at home to close the season would mean a four-game losing streak heading into the playoffs to play their biggest rival on their home turf.
The inverse would be true of the Ravens heading into the same matchup. Baltimore will be on a four game heater, defeating two division opponents during the stretch and basically steamrolling into the postseason.
The Ravens offense has scored 33 points-per-game over their last three since the bye week, juggernauting through a three-game, eleven-day stretch similar to the Steelers schedule, albeit with some rest. That may not bode well if the Steelers are demoralized and limping into the playoffs against the Ravens, who soundly defeated the Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium back in Week 16 by the tune of 34-17.
Controlling Their Destiny
For all intents and purposes a Ravens rematch will likely be on the books at some point during the postseason unless Baltimore were to be upset in the Wild Card round before a rematch could occur. In order for that situation to play out, the Steelers need to turn their ship around this Saturday against the Cincinnati Bengals to close their regular season on a positive note, though that may be easier said than done.
The Steelers offense has been in slump, unable to score at least 20 points in each of their last three games. Their defense has also been poor, giving up at least 27 to opponents.
They’ll be up against a Bengals team that started the recent trend of Pittsburgh’s defense bleeding yards and points in a 44-38 shootout. That game will prove no easier of an outcome as the Bengals have had to win every game to close the season since losing last at home to the Steelers.
Cincy has scored an average of 29.5 points-per-game over their four-game win streak. However, a telling tale for their franchise this season has been the inability to defeat teams with a .500 record or better. Their first such win came last Saturday against the Denver Broncos in an overtime thriller.
The Bengals will enter the Steelers stadium this weekend as 1.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 48.5. Expect to see some fireworks as this game will control the destiny of not only the Steelers, but the Bengals. A Pittsburgh win would send Cincinnati home, out of postseason contention, while potentially skyrocketing the Steelers into the Wild Card round with some momentum.
