The Steelers must gamble in the draft to find their next quarterback
The NFL Draft is less than one week away, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are tightly linked to this year’s quarterback class, since they do not appear to have a defined answer at the position.
After failing to revitalize the careers of former first-round picks (Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields) and Super Bowl-winning veterans (Russell Wilson) the team moves on yet again in their search to replace the retired Ben Roethlisberger.
In order to find that replacement, Steelers GM Omar Khan may have to take some risks. Some risks, however, are weighted differently than others. Such is the gamble on finding a franchise quarterback, as teams either tank their seasons or trade away highly prized assets to acquire a top pick with the hopes of selecting a long-term star.
There is no foolproof answer to finding a quarterback, however. While landing the top pick in the NFL Draft has yielded positive results, such as Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck, but even the top selection has its share of mixed success. While the story is still being written for Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, or Trevor Lawrence, we know the career trajectories of other first overall picks such as Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray.
That list doesn’t instill much confidence that using the top overall pick on a player guarantees superstardom. If anything, it shows the risk of giving up too much and missing on the position.
If the top overall pick yields mixed results, so does any first-round pick. The Steelers aren’t immune to this either, using their 2022 first-round selection to take Kenny Pickett, the first QB drafted in his class.
While Pickett didn’t workout, the attempt was worth it for Pittsburgh if it did. The only risk involved was their draft pick, albeit a high one. There were no other assets at risk, such as a trade of draft picks or players – and it’s not as if first round picks have worked in the Steelers favor over the years anyway. All draft picks carry risk. In fact, you’d have a better chance of using a promo code for Wow Vegas and betting on which players get selected by what team than gambling on long-term success.
Since 2015, the Steelers have drafted the following players (aside from Pickett) in the first round: Bud Dupree, Artie Burns, T.J. Watt, Terrell Edmunds, Devin Bush, Najee Harris, Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu. While Watt was a homerun, and the last two choices are “to be determined” the others were hardly surefire picks for long-term success.
That’s why taking a quarterback that falls to them might be a wise decision for the Steelers. Yet, where they select that player could also mitigate the odds of said risk. Josh Allen was taken seventh overall in a class that saw Sam Darnold taken third and Josh Rosen taken tenth. Lamar Jackson was in the same class, but selected with pick 32.
Two years later, Burrow headlined a class featuring Tua Tagovailoa (pick 5), Justin Herbert (pick 6), Jordan Love (pick 26), and famously, Jalen Hurts, who was selected in the second round with pick 53.
Steelers fans will quibble over not taking Jackson or Hurts in those drafts, yet it’s unlikely either quarterback has the same career path or success if they went to the Steelers. Jackson would’ve waited until 2022 to start behind Roethlisberger, as would’ve Hurts: but Jackson would’ve been on a new contract or a fifth-year option from his rookie deal and a big decision to be made on a player who saw limited time.
Hurts, on the other hand, was jeered by Eagles fans until he wasn’t. A great deal of Philadelphia’s success last season came from Saquon Barkley running the ball and a shutdown defense.
The Steelers could attempt the same pattern, but don’t forget those who wait later in the draft to select a passer might not find a Hurts – or a Brock Purdy or a Tom Brady, both of whom are extreme exceptions to the rule. It’s highly unlikely 32 NFL scouting departments all get a pick wrong, after all.
Of the 176 quarterbacks taken since 2010, 13 were selected in round two:
- Will Levis
- Kyle Trask
- Jalen Hurts
- Drew Lock
- DeShone Kizer
- Christian Hackenberg
- Derek Carr
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Geno Smith
- Brock Osweiler
- Andy Dalton
- Colin Kaepernick
- Jimmy Clausen
Few of those names have had a large amount of success in the league, yet the few times a team has risked those picks, it has paid off. The same can’t be said of the 49 quarterbacks taken in the first round, but that goes to show you how risky of a situation selecting a passer can be.
Of the 20 third-rounders since 2010, the most notable names are Russell Wilson, Mason Rudolph, Nick Foles, and Jacoby Brissett. Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins are the headliners of 23 fourth-rounders, with Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor, Trevor Siemian, and Brock Purdy rounding out the final three rounds (71 quarterbacks).
It speaks volumes to speculating on a passer, who then needs the time and support to properly develop into a franchise player. Should the Steelers take a swing at the quarterback position in this draft, they may want to swing early.
Waiting for Tyler Shough or Kyle McCord in the later rounds indicates they’ll be among the fifth or sixth quarterback drafted, and the odds of those players blossoming into stars are almost zero.
It’s better to take a shot at Jaxson Dart or Jalen Milroe, as free agency isn’t likely to yield a long-term solution, and hitting on a quarterback by risking a single pick could be the equivalent of winning the Powerball for an NFL franchise – so long as you’re not wasting tons of capital investing in that winning ticket!
