Is Derek Carr’s monster contract more valuable than Bens?
Twitter was set ablaze when the numbers for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr‘s newest contract were released.
Raiders and Derek Carr are close to finalizing a deal expected to pay their quarterback about $25 million per year, per league sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) June 21, 2017
With his new deal, Carr will be the highest paid player in NFL history. Per usual, reactions varied from those in disbelief that the third-year quarterback, who has yet to win a playoff game, could be the highest paid player. Ever.
Upon first look, Carr will be making more money than other franchise quarterbacks such as the Packers Aaron Rodgers, Patriots Tom Brady, the Saints Drew Brees, and of course, the Steelers Ben Roethlisberger. All four are elite quarterbacks who are statistically better than Carr. All four also have Super Bowl rings.
This is all a misconception though. That thought process ignores the laws of inflation and economics. The NFL salary cap has been rising each year; even the rate of it increasing has grown. From 2012 to 2013 the cap increased by about $3 million. On the flip side, from 2016 to 2017, the most recent change, the cap increased by about $12 million. With this gradual and then exponential rise, it is inevitable for player contracts to similarly rise.
For example, here is the NFL salary cap over the past six years.
| Year | Salary cap | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 167M | (12M) |
| 2016 | 155M | (12M) |
| 2015 | 143M | (10M) |
| 2014 | 133M | (10M) |
| 2013 | 123M | (3M) |
| 2012 | 120M | (0.5M) |
From 2011 to 2012 the cap salary difference was a mere half million, which is astounding compared to the recent year-to-year disparities. Based on these numbers, it’s reasonable to think that the cap could rise next year by $14 million, climbing to $181 million. Within 3 years the salary cap will certainly surpass $200 million, about double of what is was in 2006.
It wouldn’t be out of the question that another young quarterback could easily receive a contract which surpasses Derek Carr’s next season. Those passers include Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, and Kirk Cousins. Minnesota has two quarterbacks to concern themselves with, as the injured Teddy Bridgewater could hit free agency in 2018 along with Bradford as well. Both signal callers share something in common with Stafford and Cousins too: none of them own a Super Bowl ring.
Drew Brees has won a ring but turns 39 years old next January. Whether he continues playing won’t affect if teams keep paying. In fact, I’m not sure what is preventing quarterback hungry teams with loads of cap space, like the 49ers or Browns, from upping the ante to the $30 million mark. That’s where the cost of a quarterback could be headed.
However, it’s not relative to what some QBs are currently making. When comparing contracts relative to the salary cap the year a player signed, Ben Roethlisberger’s contract had more value than Carr’s.
| Player | Year | Salary Cap | Salary per year | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carr | 2017 | $167,000,000 | $25,000,000 | 14.97% |
| Roethlisberger | 2015 | $143,280,000 | $21,900,000 | 15.29% |
The numbers here are simplified but as you can see, Ben’s contract that he signed in 2015 had a greater value when compared to the overall percentage spent against the cap versus that of Carr’s new deal.
Therefore fans, there is no need to fret over Carr’s monster deal. As Bob Dylan once said, the times they are a changin’. As the salary cap continues to increase, player contracts will increase alongside. Quarterbacks, cornerbacks, and every other position you can think of will be making more money each and every year.
So don’t be surprised when Matthew Stafford breaks the bank next!
