What are the realistic expectations for James Conner in 2017?
When contract negotiations between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Le’Veon Bell failed to produce any results outside of the already established exclusive rights franchise tag tendered to the running back, a good portion of Steelers Nation went berserk. While we’ve spent a great deal of time detailing all of the nuances of whether or not Le’Veon should’ve accepted the Steelers offer, there’s another wrinkle to the situation that fans were frantic to point out: James Conner.
Pittsburgh’s third round draft pick was the 8th running back selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, but that hasn’t halted the hysteria surrounding one guaranteed year Bell has remaining with the Steelers. While Bell could be back again under the franchise tag in 2018, some fans have already had enough of him before the 2017 season kicks off. Most sentiments point toward Conner as the solution to a problem which doesn’t exist.
That “problem”, at least for the 2017 season, and possibly going into the 2018 season, is that the Steelers don’t have a starting running back, which isn’t true. Those annoyed with Bell’s rumored holdout are quick to speculate that Conner is his heir apparent. I’ve seen everything from “trade Bell” to “Conner will rush for 1,000 yards this season” as responses to our articles across social media.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but unless something happens to Bell, be it an injury or another suspension, Conner will likely be watching from afar. Backup running backs have never enjoyed much playing time since Le’Veon arrived on the scene in 2013. Long passed are the days of an aging Jerome Bettis rotating with “Fast” Willie Parker and a third down back like Mewelde Moore.
The Steelers have preferred a “Bell Cow” (pun intended) back for quite some time, which prefaces that when I mention “backups” in the following paragraphs, I am referencing statistics generated when the player in question is not the starter. That’s important because Bell hasn’t always been available to play. He has served five games due to suspensions over two seasons and missed additional time with injuries.
Taking statistics at face value doesn’t provide the entire story. DeAngelo Williams, who stepped in to start for Bell at times, saw a lion’s share of playing time, but also broke down at the end of the 2015 season and was replaced by a Fitzgerald Toussaint, and then a platoon consisting of Toussaint and Jordan Todman. Therefore, the numbers I ran show the impact of backup running backs playing behind a full-load starter during the 2015 and 2016 regular seasons. I had decided not to go back to 2014 as part of this analysis, but all you need to know is that LeGarrette Blount left the bench before a game was over due to his lack of a role behind Bell.
Know that I don’t say any of this to downplay the type of player Conner may become, rather, to lower some of the expectations Steelers fans are already placing on an unproven rookie who may have little chance to prove himself otherwise, so long as Bell remains on the field.
Let’s start with our most recent favorite backup running back, DeAngelo Williams. Williams was actually called the “1a” to Bell’s “1” on the depth chart. That much was true when Williams filled in for the five games Bell was suspended, as well as the second half of the 2015 season after Le’Veon landed on IR following a low hit against the Cincinnati Bengals.
However, when Bell was in uniform, Williams seldom saw the field. We all know the fantasy of stories which stem from training camp of a two-headed monster in the Steelers backfield, but reality shows that idea never materialized. In games where Bell played, minus the Bengals game Williams subbed in for, DeAngelo only saw 32 total snaps in 2015. That number only climbed nine more plays to 41 in the 2016 season. That’s a total of 73 snaps in two seasons for the Steelers “1a” running back when Bell was on the depth chart. That doesn’t include touches, where Williams had 22 carries and five receptions (six targets) during the 2015 season. In five games as a backup during the 2016 season, Williams only saw 17 carries and matched his five reception (nine targets) total from a year earlier.
The figures for backups drop dramatically after Williams. Fitzgerald Toussaint received 47 reps in 2015, but 33 of those came after Williams left the Week 17 game against the Cleveland Browns. In reality, he only saw the field for 14 plays after being activated in late November. Fitz carried the ball six times in those games, with an extra dozen in relief of DeAngelo against Cleveland. Toussaint’s 2016 season was much better, amassing only 43 total snaps on offense, 15 of which once again came in the final game of the regular season, when Bell and other starters were rested in a “meaningless” game (for standings) against the Browns. Sticking with the Steelers for the entire year, Toussaint would carry the ball 14 times for 58 yards.
Jordan Todman, who played with Pittsburgh in 2015 and was on the roster throughout the year, only logged 15 plays; he carried the ball four times for 22 yards.
Daryl Richardson, who initially made the 53-man active roster due to Bell’s three-game suspension, only appeared on the field five times, carrying the ball twice. He was released and re-signed to the Steelers practice squad following Le’Veon’s return, and never appeared in a game with the Steelers again.
Hence, if history is any indicator, we shouldn’t expect much more from James Conner in 2017. There’s speculation that the Steelers have high hopes for free agent pickup Knile Davis; the veteran running back could have an edge at being the first name listed after Bell’s, at least early in the season. Regardless, the effective playing time for all Steelers backup running backs totals a meager 145 plays over the span of two seasons.
To put that into perspective, Bell saw the field 301 times during a 2015 season in which he missed ten games entirely. In 2016, “Juice” played 781 snaps. Combined, Bell was on the field for 1,082 plays in 18 games. The Steelers backups barely registered 10% of Bell’s total, even with my generously liberal figures, which also included an opportunity for players such as Toussaint, Todman, and Richardson to possibly see the field more often in Bell’s absence.
What that amounts to is a lack of opportunity for James Conner during his rookie season. Couple that with a reluctance of a “play now” mentality when Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates were rookies, and we could see very little of the former Pitt Panther in 2017.
