Since I took over the Bold Predictions here on SCU, things have been a mixed bag. I never claimed to be the Great Swami, but after breaking the crystal ball and getting bad returns from the Magic 8-ball, this week I had better dig deep. That’s not an easy thing to do with “bold” predictions, because we all realize that the NFL has been a bit of a craps shoot in 2018. It’s Patriots week, too. That means I may have to just sound the alarms and go for a jailbreak. Before I get into this week’s predictions, however, let’s look at what I predicted in Week 14 and how close (and far off) I got to what really went down.

Week 14 prediction recap

• The Steelers add at least three sacks to Derek Carr’s 2018 total: Let me remind you that SCU’s own Brian Roach predicted five. Pittsburgh got three sacks (hurray that I went conservative). Mike Hilton, Bud Dupree, and Stephon Tuitt all logged 1.0 sacks per NFL stats. Hilton and Tuitt added two tackles for a loss apiece.

• The Steelers flip the script and out-rush the Raiders: That was bold considering I thought Stevan Ridley and Jaylen Samuels would be utilized more against the Raiders. I also anticipated that Doug Martin truly was not 100 percent. Martin, Jalen Richard, and Derek Carr recorded 25 carries for 55 yards and one touchdown. Ridley, Samuels, Joshua Dobbs, and Darrius Heyward-Bey combined for 19 carries, 40 yards, and a touchdown.

• The Steelers earn at least one rushing touchdown: Ridley earned that rushing touchdown. Score!

• Samuels earns a minimum of 40 yards in the ground game alone: Samuels actually earned 28 yards on 11 carries because he was utilized more in the passing game. In his first career NFL start, the rookie recorded 92 yards from scrimmage.

• Ryan Switzer distinguishes himself as the Steelers’ WR3 behind Brown and Smith-Schuster: Switzer must not have been 100 percent after the big hit he took in Week 13, because he grabbed just one pass for a yard. One yard! He handled all the kick and punt return duties, however. The third-best receiver (reception yards) for the Steelers in Week 14 was actually tight end Vance McDonald (four catches for 37 yards). If we’re going to look at true “wide receivers”, then James Washington’s two catches for 11 yards ranked third. JuJu Smith-Schuster led all receivers on the day.

• Steelers get more turnovers (by interception, fumble or strip-sack) than the Raiders in Week 14: Hilton’s fumble recovery was the only turnover the Steelers grabbed due to a hit on Carr that, when reviewed, was not considered an incomplete pass. Oakland earned one interception (Tahir Whitehead off of a Dobbs pass). That is a draw.

• At least one Steelers turnover will be an interception: I swung and missed. The Steelers have not been winning the turnover battle this season for sure.

Steelers Predictions for Patriots Week

The last time Pittsburgh went head-to-head with New England was in Week 15 (Dec. 17, 2017) of the 2017-18 NFL regular season. Steelers fans still hadn’t gotten the AFC Championship game out of their minds from the previous season when the Patriots dismantled the black and gold to go to the Super Bowl. At Heinz Field, in December, the game was close when Dion Lewis ran into the end zone, the successful PAT making the score 27-24. The Steelers then marched down the field and this infamous play happened:

Controversially, the touchdown was overturned on replay and two plays later Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted, sealing the win for the Patriots. In case you’re still wondering, Jesse Caught It!

Well, folks, it’s Week 15 again and that means it’s Patriots week – and the Steelers need a win.

Jesse James gets redemption

After getting robbed (yep, I’m still salty as all get out over the officials stealing the touchdown last year), James is primed to get payback. Patriots linebackers coach Brian Flores said, earlier this week, “(The Steelers have) a good stable of backs, a good offensive line, good tight ends, those guys block as well. It’s going to be a tough test for us.” Not named specifically, James and Vance McDonald have certainly been important cogs in the Steelers’ offense in 2018.

James has seen fewer passes sent his direction this season (29) than last season (43), but he has only played in 13 games (so far) and has a better receiving yardage total at 414. His yards-per-reception average is a career-high 14.28. He only has two touchdowns on the season, but this is why James may be overlooked a bit as the Patriots defense focuses on the dual threat of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

According to his press conference this week, Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski has blocked out last season because when he was asked about James’ play he said, “I mean, I haven’t thought about that since it happened. We haven’t brought it up or anything…I probably was thinking the same thing as everyone else, like, ‘What’s going on? What happened?’ and all that.”

(Yep, I’m giving you Steelers fans ammunition to pump you up. My minor was in sports psychology and pepping the crowd, well that just seems right this week in the hopes that the energy will carry over onto Heinz Field.)

Prediction: James gets on his horse and grabs a minimum of 30 receiving yards and a touchdown.

JuJu and Antonio find the end zone

There is no doubt that the Steelers’ top two receivers in Smith-Schuster and Brown are garnering attention from the Patriots. “They’re two great players. So, how do they complement each other? By being great,” said New England defensive back Devin McCourty this week. “I think whether it’s (Smith-Schuster) catching a 97-yard touchdown or Antonio Brown beating a coverage… you really can’t fall asleep… I think how versatile they are helps them because they don’t just align at one position either…” McCourty leads all Patriots defenders with 54 total tackles (19 assisted) and has grabbed one interception for an 84-yard touchdown return.

Prediction: Brown and Smith-Schuster team up to score two touchdowns for the Steelers.

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The Steelers’ offensive line dominates the Patriots’ defensive front

The Patriots are heavily favored to not only shut down the run game but also Pittsburgh’s passing game. Paul Perillo of Patriots Football Weekly printed that the Steelers offense hasn’t really changed in his game preview. “New England’s defense is inconsistent in the red zone but boasts the league’s third-highest interception rate through 12 games,” he wrote, “and Roethlisberger is prone to mistake near the goal line.”Perillo feels the pash-rush duo of Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise will “coax” Roethlisberger into committing costly errors.

I think Perillo is overlooking the Steelers’ offensive line. Flowers is tied at the 34th rank (per NFL Next-Gen Stats) in the league in sack totals this season with 6.5; he’s ranked with Lorenzo Alexander (BUF), Fletcher Cox (PHI), Javon Hargrave (PIT), Carl Nassib (TB), Romeo Okwara (DET) and Jarran Reed (SEA). Wise is tied at the 65th rank (per NFL Next-Gen Stats) in sack totals with 4.5; he’s ranked with Chris Long (PHI), Robert Nkemdiche (ARI), Larry Ogunjobi (CLE), Robert Quinn (MIA), Isaac Rochell (LAC), Olivier Vernon (NYG), Cameron Wake (MIA), and Vince Williams (PIT). To me, if you look at the entire list, Flowers and Wise aren’t generating the level of pressure that the Steelers are defensively. If numbers don’t lie, then New England’s 24 sacks to Pittsburgh’s 45 sacks prove that to be true.

The Steelers’ offensive line gets overlooked a lot, but not by me. They’ve only allowed 18 sacks in 14 weeks of play. They’ve been able to help create press up front to block and pull to allow 1157 total rushing yards. They’ve done well in pass-blocking, allowing the Steelers offense to put together 4,148 total receiving yards (to their opponents’ 3,041 receiving yards).

Prediction 1: The Steelers’ offensive line allows one or fewer sacks.

Prediction 2: The offensive line helps the Steelers grab at least 100 yards rushing and at least 300 yards passing.

Even bolder Steelers predictions

Since we’re all prepared to cheer our fool heads off when the Steelers win, here are some other outrageous predictions for Sunday’s game:

• The Steelers defense sacks Tom Brady at least twice: This is actually really important. When Brady gets rattled, he falls apart – dare I say – more often than Roethlisberger does. At least, he loses his cool on-field charm and throws more sideline fits. Pittsburgh knows it is key to disrupt Brady and should dial-up a healthy amount of pressure on Sunday.

• Ridley gets Steelers over the 100-yard rushing mark in a single game since Conner’s injury: The Patriots defense has a big problem: they’ve been unable to get ballcarriers to the ground after the ball has been handed off. They’ve struggled with stopping opposing rushers all season. The Miami Dolphins ran the ball 12 times in the first half of last weekend’s match with New England for 142 yards. The Steelers have only put together 206 yards in their past four games (63 carries for 3.2 yards per carry), but Ridley and Jaylen Samuels have yet to really break out after watching James Conner carry the majority of the rushing duties before his injury.Ridley, who had 1,200 yards in 2014 tore his ACL and MCL in October. The Patriots terminated their relationship. Ridley told the Boston Herald this week, “I want this game more than any other game… That’s just the bottom line to it.” Ridley claimed that the Patriots “trashed” him after the injury. “To be a starter for (the Patriots) for four years, to (get hurt) and never get a call back, that’s a tough pill to swallow.” Ridley said he’s not bitter about everything he experienced in New England, but he’s ready to show why he’s still a valuable rusher in the NFL. I raise my glass to you getting the justice you seek, Stevan! Cheers!

• The Steelers limit Gronk’s playmaking ability and hold him under 100 yards receiving: The Patriots’ big tight end can kill opposing teams with his versatility and Pittsburgh has had troubles with tight ends in general. This week, I think Pittsburgh gets the better of this matchup, however, because it’s clear that Rob isn’t quite Rob right now in the season.

• The Steelers shock the Patriots with a comeback and a win! Yes, this is the boldest of all predictions this week. Why? Well, because no one – not ESPN, not NFL Network, not even the talking heads on the a.m. sports shows – is leaning in Pittsburgh’s favor. Okay, there may be a few people out there that think, “The Steelers could win this,” but they’re not being nearly as vocal as those who think Brady will go full-G.O.A.T. because, well, why wouldn’t he? Right? Wrong. I think the Steelers have been waiting all year for this game, the opportunity to be the underdog and a chance to prove that they can win the biggest of big games in the face of adversity and overwhelming lack of faith by any number of fans. Prepare yourselves. Winter is coming… and the chill will hit at Heinz Field this weekend.