The pros and cons of the Steelers signing Mitchell Trubisky
The Steelers finally pleased the free agency naysayers on Monday, with an unofficial announcement that the team likely signed the top free agent quarterback in this year’s class.
That’s not a tongue-in-cheek comment either, when you consider that some of the free agents available (keyword: available) aren’t a noticeable upgrade over Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins, or Mitchell Trubisky himself.
And that’s the allure of signing Trubiksy. Once the top quarterback taken in the 2017 NFL Draft, as the second-overall pick to the Chicago Bears, Trubisky spent last season as a backup to Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen. With the pandemic having wrecked the salary cap, there were no deals to be made elsewhere, as the once starting passer took a backseat and waited until 2022 for an opportunity.
That opportunity comes as the Steelers say goodbye to long-time starting quarterback, and future Hall of Famer Ben Roethlisberger, who leaves a huge vacancy in the Steel City as he enters retirement. However, it should be noted that despite the unusual and higher profile signing of Trubisky by the Steelers, he may still not be the team’s Week 1 starter.
Here’s the reasons why that will and will not happen.
Pro: Compensation
Trubisky’s contract hasn’t officially leaked yet, which according to Steel City Insider’s Jim Wexell, is an indication that it isn’t a landmark deal. That’s a good sign for a Steelers roster that could easily walk away from this experiment if it doesn’t work.
The word on the street is that Trubisky signed a two-year deal in the neighborhood of $27 million, with a ballpark average base salary of $7 million per season plus incentives.
I don’t expect that to be his final cap hits, and I would surmise he doesn’t have a lot of dead cap space on the 2023 portion of that deal.
Why this is a pro and not a con is that the Steelers aren’t tied to Trubisky long-term. If he stinks, he stinks. It also helps that the team didn’t blow draft picks trading for a cap-heavy quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, or yes, even Jimmy Garoppolo: who carries at least twice as much of an average per-year cap hit.
Sacrificing draft selections or salary would’ve handicapped the Steelers for years to come. With Trubisky they sacrifice neither.
Pro: He made the Pro Bowl (and playoffs) in 2018
It’s true: Trubisky was white-hot in his sophomore season. He won 11 of his 14 starts that year, throwing for 3,223 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
He had four 300+ yard passing games that season, including an insane six-touchdown performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (It should be noted he only had to attempt 26 passes in that game as well.)
His 2018 season was good enough for a Pro Bowl nod as he led the Bears to the postseason, winning the NFC North with a 12-4 record.
Pro: His 2020 finish with the Bears
However, things would go south with this story. But before I cover that, his final five starts with the Bears in 2020, saw Trubisky accumulate 1,253 yards for 8 touchdowns while throwing only 3 picks. He completed 74% of his passes during that span, which is commendable.
Con: His 2020 start with the Bears
The reason Trubisky’s last handful of games are covered so well is because his start to the 2020 season was marred with inconsistent play that saw the quarterback benched in favor of backup Nick Foles.
His first four starts in 2020 would see the QB throw for 802 yards and a 58.3% completion rate with 9 TD and 5 INT: including 4 fumbles.
That’s a far cry from his 73.9% rate he would finish with over his last five games.
Con: Overall record
Despite his 11-3 record in 2018, Trubisky is an even Steven 18-18 in his other three seasons as a starter in Chicago, the roughest of which was his 4-8 start to his NFL career.
Con: No 4,000-yard or 30 TD seasons
Both benchmarks of good quarterback play, Trubisky (like the aforementioned Garoppolo) lack any milestone seasons.
Even Trubisky’s Pro Bowl nod came with only 24 touchdown passes and a career single season high of 3,223 yards, which Rudolph and Haskins both project to total similar stats if they were to start. (Note: Trubisky only played 14 games in that season, but would’ve still been shy of 4,000 by a good 700+ yards.)
Con: Regression
With one more game played in 2019, Trubisky threw for fewer yards, touchdowns, and interceptions despite attempting 82 more passes.
That’s a clear regression from 2018.
Pro: Improvement?
According to Pro Football Reference, had Trubisky played a 17-game season with the way he had played throughout 2020, he would’ve finished in the same neighborhood with 3,494 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
That’s not too bad and clearly what the Steelers are hoping for.
Con: Protecting the football
One of the bigger knocks on Trubisky is that, while he doesn’t take many sacks, the little pressure he does face turns into negative plays.
In 50 starts with the Bears, the signal caller has 37 interceptions to 64 touchdowns, but has fumbled the ball a whopping 27 times.
That’s a once in over half of his games.
Conclusion
Trubisky represents a unique situation for the Steelers and one that probably spells trouble for at least one quarterback on the current roster.
Either the Steelers didn’t trust Mason Rudolph as their starter, or, they didn’t trust Dwayne Haskins as his potential backup.
As things continue to unfold, one thing is certain: Trubisky is a former top draft pick with over 50 NFL starts, which is more than Rudolph and Haskins combined. It’s actually double their starts combined, which is why he was brought aboard.
Obviously, Trubisky will compete to be the team’s starter, but I do expect that it’s a competition and not a forgone conclusion that he’s the Week 1 starter. A lot of talking heads have it either way at this moment, and with the NFL Draft around the corner, you never know what could happen.
At least for now, fans can relax about signing a potential starting quarterback, as the Steelers land their man by making an uncharacteristic splash during the first day of free agency.
