Divisional round QB performances prove “video game” stats unnecessary for next Steelers QB
The offseason fervor and speculation have already begun for Steelers Nation, as Mike Tomlin’s closing press conference alluded to Kenny Pickett returning in a competition as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback. Coach Tomlin was impressed by Mason Rudolph’s preparedness, and wants to do business with the soon-to-be free agent, but anything could happen between now and then.
That has left some pundits pondering about who else could be throwing passes alongside Pickett in Latrobe, Pennsylvania this summer.
Some of the names are very speculative at this time, such as Justin Fields (who is under contract with the Chicago Bears through 2024) or Russell Wilson (who many believe will be released before free agency in March). Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is another name that keeps popping up, despite being signed through 2028 with a huge contract that counts anywhere from $43.5 to $55.5 million in cap space yearly.
Wilson and Murray are within the league’s priciest quarterback contract tier and represent another Mitch Trubisky-type reclamation project that might not work out. Yet, another expensive name hits free agency soon: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who is already 35 years of age and probably not the future for any franchise.
Those not ready to spend 20-25% of their team’s salary cap on one player are begging for the Steelers to acquire a passer through the NFL Draft, but I ask those folks this: are you ready to give up a bunch of future high picks to move up for the one you think might be a franchise player? It sounds good in the moment, but success isn’t guaranteed, as evidenced by early-round selections over the last few seasons such as Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, and more.
If the Steelers draft a quarterback, it’s likely that player isn’t high on other team’s radars (like Kenny Pickett) or falls into the middle rounds (like Mason Rudolph). So why not stick with Pickett and Rudolph?
If you look around, everyone wants the next Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow. Those risks (mostly) paid off for those teams, but others mentioned above or high picks like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston did not. It’s a gamble, at best.
It would appear that patience has worked in the favor of other teams. Patience afforded the Detroit Lions to make it to the NFC Championship game with Jared Goff, who was discarded by the Los Angeles Rams – who not only made it to the Super Bowl with Goff but also won one with Goff’s trade partner Matthew Stafford.
Everyone believes that these quarterbacks put up John Madden Football video game numbers for their teams to be successful, but in most cases, those stats are an outlier. Take Patrick Mahomes, for example. He had a single game over 400 yards of passing this season, which was also his only one with four touchdowns. He only had one other game with three touchdowns in the air as well.
Josh Allen is in the same category, with only a single four-touchdown game on his 2023 resume and no games with over 400 yards passing. Even Lamar Jackson, who is known to use his legs more than his arm, had one game with five touchdowns and none with 400 yards passing or over three touchdowns.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who gave Justin Herbert a large offseason deal, didn’t reap large rewards with a similar category of a single four-touchdown game and another over 400 yards.
This may seem like a lofty benchmark, but the point is to show that Mason Rudolph’s recent 250-yard games with one or two TD passes is in line with what’s often league-average numbers. Mahomes had ten games passing between 210 to 280 yards. Allen had nine games between 203 and 275. Texans rookie C.J. Stroud had seven games between 213 and 280 as well.
All of three of those AFC QBs mentioned above combined for 11 games with 200 yards or fewer passing: over half of those (6) were losses.
So there is a fine cutoff line, but an above-board performance such as Rudolph’s final four-game streak (including the postseason) is more than enough to get the job done. Without Matt Canada as OC, it’s plausible that Pickett has better outings too.
Among the NFL Divisional Round quarterbacks, it’s quite surprising how throwing the football wasn’t the key contributor to winning games. Here are the stats among the winning teams:
- Jackson 16/22 252 yards 2 TD
- Purdy 23/39 242 yards 1 TD
- Goff 30/43 287 yards 2 TD
- Mahomes 17/23 215 yards 2 TD
And the losing teams:
- Allen 26/39 186 yards 1 TD
- Stroud 19/33 175 yards 0 TD
- Love 21/34 194 yards 2 TD 2 INT
- Mayfield 26/41 349 yards 3 TD 2 INT
The common link among those quarterbacks? In three cases (Allen, Stroud, Love) the losing quarterback failed to move the ball at least 200 yards. In two, the quarterback was responsible for turnovers.
Are you going to tell me Rudolph or Pickett can’t achieve this, especially with a new offensive coordinator? I find that hard to believe. Of course, the team still has to sign Rudolph for that to happen. Each quarterback is capable of a 200-plus yard game. (Pickett threw for 278 in his only post-Canada game.)
The harder sell is paying up for Cousins, Murray or Wilson, should they be available. Fields is also looking at a fifth-year option on his rookie deal, awaiting to be paid the big bucks. Wilson failed to reach 200 yards passing in eight games and Fields in six. Murray, who missed eight games, only threw multiple touchdowns in two of his other eight. Cousins, a gun slinger, fared better but had 11 of his 18 touchdowns in 2023 in four games: all losses. In his other four games, all wins, Cousins threw 7 touchdowns to 5 interceptions.
This illustrates that prime quarterback play is essential in the NFL, but what defines “prime” doesn’t always translate to victory on the field.
