Analyzing impact of pre-draft visits on Steelers draft strategy
One fascinating aspect of the draft season to me is pre-draft visits. The Steelers bring in roughly 30 players every year to visit their facility in the SouthSide and meet with the staff.
I wanted to examine the relationship between the positions of these players brought in for a visit and the players the Steelers draft. I’m aware that none of this data will reveal causation, but the correlations are interesting.
When examining past drafts, it’s clear there is a relationship between pre-draft positions and players drafted. I’ll be examining the past five drafts, and then taking a look at what the 2017 pre-draft visits may mean for the draft.
2016
| Position | Visit count |
|---|---|
| S | 12 |
| CB | 7 |
| DL | 4 |
| WR | 2 |
| OL | 2 |
| TE | 1 |
| EDGE | 1 |
| RB | 1 |
| ILB | 1 |
The draft:
1. Artie Burns (CB)
2. Sean Davis (S)
3. Javon Hargrave (DT)
4. Jerald Hawkins (OL)
6. Travis Feeney (OLB)
7. Demarcus Ayers (WR)
7. Tyler Matakevich (ILB)
Observations:
- Safety was the Steelers most visited position and they addressed the position in the 2nd round.
- Cornerback was the Steelers second most visited position and they addressed the position in the 1st round.
- Defensive line made perfect sense: third most visited, 3rd round selection.
- The remaining positions weren’t visited a lot. Wide receiver and offensive line tied with two visits each and both positions were addressed.
- Tight end and running back were the only positions to visit, but not be addressed in the draft.
2015
| Position | Visit count |
|---|---|
| CB | 8 |
| EDGE | 7 |
| TE | 6 |
| WR | 5 |
| OL | 2 |
| S | 1 |
| DL | 1 |
| RB | 0 |
| ILB | 0 |
The draft:
1. Bud Dupree (EDGE)
2. Senquez Golson (CB)
3. Sammie Coates (WR)
4. Doran Grant (CB)
5. Jesse James (TE)
6. Anthony Chickilllo (EDGE)
6. L.T. Walton (DL)
7. Gerod Holliman (S)
Observations:
- Cornerback was the most frequent position brought in and two were drafted in the first four rounds.
- Linebacker was the 2nd most frequent position and brought and again, two were drafted.
- Wide receiver and tight end tied with five visits each and both were drafted. Each player drafted had at least 1 player in their position brought in for a visit.
- The offensive line was the only position brought in that wasn’t addressed in the draft.
2014
| Position | Visit count |
|---|---|
| CB | 7 |
| WR | 5 |
| DL | 5 |
| ILB | 5 |
| S | 3 |
| EDGE | 2 |
| RB | 2 |
| TE | 1 |
| OL | 0 |
The draft:
1. Ryan Shazier (ILB)
2. Stephon Tuitt (DL)
3. Dri Archer (RB)
4. Martavis Bryant (WR)
5. Shaq Richardson (CB)
5. Wesley Johnson (OL)
6. Jordan Zumwalt (ILB)
6. Daniel McCullers (DL)
7. Rob Blanchflower (TE)
Observations:
- Inside linebacker was tied for the second-most brought in position; the position was our 1st round pick and two were drafted.
- Despite being the most brought in, the cornerback position wasn’t addressed until the 5th round.
- Defensive line was tied for the second-most visits and 2 players were drafted in the 2nd and 6th round.
- Wide receiver was tied for third and one player was drafted in the top four rounds.
- Despite only have two running backs visit, the position was addressed in the 3rd round; Dri Archer who they drafted wasn’t brought in for a visit. Archer is tricky though because he was an RB/WR hybrid and could’ve been classified in either category.
- Safety was the only position brought in for a visit that wasn’t addressed in the draft.
2013
| Position | Visit count |
|---|---|
| CB | 6 |
| S | 4 |
| EDGE | 4 |
| ILB | 4 |
| WR | 3 |
| RB | 3 |
| OL | 1 |
| TE | 0 |
| DL | 0 |
The draft:
1. Jarvis Jones (EDGE)
2. Le’Veon Bell (RB)
3. Markus Wheaton (WR)
4a. Shamarko Thomas (S)
4b. Landry Jones (QB)
5. Terry Hawthorne (CB)
6a. Justin Brown (WR)
6b. Vince Williams (ILB)
7. Nick Williams (DL)
Observations:
- Edge rusher was the second-most visited position and it was our 1st round pick.
- Cornerback was our second-mostt brought in position, yet wasn’t addressed until the 5th room.
- Safety was the third-most visited position and one was taken in the 4th round.
- Despite only three wide receivers being brought in, two were drafted.
- Inside linebacker was tied for our second-most visited position yet wasn’t addressed until the 6th round.
- Both a quarterback and a defensive lineman were drafted despite both positions not being brought in for a visit.
2012
| Position | Visit count |
|---|---|
| OL | 7 |
| DL | 6 |
| EDGE | 6 |
| WR | 5 |
| TE | 5 |
| ILB | 4 |
| CB | 3 |
| RB | 2 |
| S | 0 |
The draft:
1. David DeCastro (OL)
2. Mike Adams (OL)
3. Sean Spence (ILB)
4. Alameda Ta’amu (DT)
5. Chris Rainey (RB)
7. Toney Clemons (WR)
7. David Paulson (TE)
7. Terrence Frederick (CB)
7. Kelvin Beachum (OL)
Observations:
- The Steelers brought in a lot of offensive lineman for visits and ended up double-dipping in the first two rounds.
- The defensive line was a top visit and was addressed in the top half of the draft.
- Despite being tied for the second-most visits, no edge rusher was selected in the draft.
- The Steelers brought in five tight ends and wide receivers but didn’t address either position until the 7th round.
So does any of this actually matter?
- In each of these five years, the 1st round selection was either the first or second-most visited position.
- In 2013 and 2014, the most brought in position was that of the first round pick. 2015 didn’t follow this trend, but the 1st round picks position was the second highest – only missing by one.
- In 2016, the top three visited positions were the top three selections.
- Only in 2013 was a position drafted that wasn’t brought in for a visit.
Looking at the 2017 draft
| Position | Visit Count |
|---|---|
| EDGE | 7 |
| WR | 5 |
| CB | 5 |
| S | 4 |
| QB | 3 |
| DL | 3 |
| ILB | 2 |
| TE | 2 |
| RB | 1 |
No one should be surprised by the most-visited position for the Steelers. With Jarvis Jones gone and James Harrison not getting any younger, the Steelers need to invest an early pick in getting their edge rusher for the future. Because it’s their top visited position, more than likely the position will be addressed within the first two rounds.
The Steelers bringing in five wide receivers shows it may be a bigger need than many thought. In 2015 and 2014 the Steelers brought in around five wide receivers, and in those drafts they took Martavis Bryant in the 4th and Sammie Coates in the 3rd. Because of the unreliability of these two players, it seems the Steelers will seriously consider drafting a wide receiver, likely in the 3rd or 4th round if the right player falls.
To no one’s surprises, the Steelers brought in plenty of defensive backs for visits. The Steelers showed heavy interest in press-man cornerbacks in free agency so it’s feasible they will select a player who fits this mold early in the draft. As for a safety, this position may not be a primary need, but the Steelers may be interested in playing more dime sets or even implementing a “money backer.” The safety position will be in play to be drafted anywhere in the draft.
The Steelers bringing in quarterbacks for visits is certainly intriguing. This wasn’t done in any of the drafts covered in this study, including 2013 when they drafted Landry Jones. Quarterback may certainly be in play this year.
The remaining positions appear to be depth needs for the Steelers. One surprising number is that the Steelers only brought in one running back despite having a need for a back-up behind Le’Veon Bell.
Conclusion
Pre-draft visits offer an interesting look into the draft process. Though inconsistent, there is a correlation between the positions the Steelers bring in for pre-draft visits and the positions addressed in the draft.
As mentioned before, this information does not reveal any causation, but it shows a trend in how the Steelers handle their draft process.
